There may still be a month left of 2016 but the 2017 Race to Dubai begins on Thursday as once again Europe’s elite begin an 11 month slog to determine who the best player on the Tour is.
Henrik Stenson was crowned the 2016 Race to Dubai champion a couple of weeks ago and he will be out to retain his number one status but there are a number of top class players looking to dethrone him.
Recent Winners
2016 – Henrik Stenson
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Martin Kaymer
2009 – Lee Westwood
2008 – Robert Karlsson
2007 – Justin Rose
Format Changes
The format as such hasn’t changed but the structure of the European Tour has for next season. It was recently announced that the Final Series would be scrapped in favour of the Rolex Series which is a group of tournaments, currently consisting of eight events with potentially more to be confirmed, which carry huge prize pools and plenty of prestige.
That structure has been designed to ensure more of Europe’s players playing the PGA Tour come back and support the European Tour and if it has that effect then anyone could win the Race to Dubai. If it doesn’t then it could be a European Tour regular who wins it.
Main Contenders
Rory McIlroy begins the season as the 13/8 favourite to nail the title once again. All eyes will be on him at the majors and the WGC events because apart from his own event in Ireland and the final tournament in Dubai we might not see him in the Rolex Series too often. Of course McIlroy can win any of those big events but one might not be enough.
Henrik Stenson is 6/1 to defend his title. He won it comfortably enough last year but his win in The Open was a large reason for that. He is another who is unlikely to play too many of the Rolex Series tournaments unless he changes his schedule so he will need to win a big tournament to contend. Having not won a major or a WGC since 2007 prior to winning The Open that has to be a concern.
Justin Rose is 12/1 to regain a title he won 10 years ago when the event was in another guise. Not only does he play too much in America for my liking but injuries are beginning to set in too much too so he’s definitely not for me.
They say timing is everything and I guess you could say that was the only thing that let Alex Noren down last year. He won four times on the European Tour but could only finish third in the R2D standings. It would be hard to see him winning four times again next year so unless he goes in at the right time he can be largely ignored too.
Danny Willett comes next at 25/1 but if he can only come second in a year he won a major you have to wonder how he can do on a normal year. The positive is that he will play most of his year in Europe so he can’t be completely ruled out.
Matthew Fitzpatrick won the season ending Dubai World Championship to propel himself into fifth place in the overall standings last season but with talk that he is moving to America you would think that will mean he will begin to dedicate more of his time on that tour which isn’t ideal.
Betting
There are a few players who tempt me at potential value prices and I’ll back three of them. I nearly took Tyrrell Hatton but it could be a year too soon for him while Rafa Cabrera Bello and Thomas Pieters might be lured over to America a little too much for my liking.
Andy Sullivan is a staunch European man and I think we’ll see a big season from him. He plays in most of the events and is capable of winning every time he tees it up. He got better and better as the season went on last year and with experience in all the big events now I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes more of an impact in them. At 40/1 he’s decent value for a big campaign.
I don’t normally bet on hunches but I’m going to allow myself a bet on a gut feel in this market as I’ve a feeling when the dam bursts for Bernd Wiesberger he could go potty in an Alex Noren sort of way. Wiesberger has the all-round game to contend on any track and spends most of his time in Europe. He’ll be in all the big events too so he is overpriced if he can crack the winners circle early in the year.
Martin Kaymer is a former European number one and he’s another who is overpriced to get back there. The German remains a class act and if you look at his results in 2016 you’ll see he had eight top 10 finishes so if he can tighten up and convert a couple of those into wins, especially the ones in Ireland, Westworth and the Dunhill Links which are part of the Rolex Series next season, then he’s entitled to push for serious season long honours.
Tips
Back A.Sullivan to win Race to Dubai 2017 (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Ladbrokes (1/5 1-4)
Back him here:
Back B.Wiesberger to win Race to Dubai 2017 (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-4)
Back him here:
Back M.Kaymer to win Race to Dubai 2017 (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-4)
Back him here:
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