The traditional warm up for the US Open on the PGA Tour is the St Jude Classic and nothing changes this week as the tournament once again is served for players to fine tune their preparation for the second major of the year.
Despite there being a major championship next week a decent field has been assembled in Tennessee with Daniel Berger looking to regain the title he won 12 months ago.
Recent Winners
2016 – Daniel Berger
2015 – Fabian Gomez
2014 – Ben Crane
2013 – Harris English
2012 – Dustin Johnson
2011 – Harrison Frazar
2010 – Lee Westwood
2009 – Brian Gay
2008 – Justin Leonard
2007 – Woody Austin
The Course
As ever TPC Southwind in Memphis is the venue this week. This course has undergone a lot of change in recent years and is now a tough par 70. It measures 7,244 yards but it has been extremely hot in the area recently so the ball will fly further and the course will be firmer.
That firmness should add to the premium of sticking the ball on the fairway this week. There was that anyway with the greens a lot smaller than usual but holding the greens from the rough is unlikely. With that in mind good scramblers have been known to go well around here too.
The Field
Given what lies ahead this isn’t a bad field by any means. Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler add popularity to the event with Adam Scott another top name in the field.
This is the last chance to qualify for next week so there is a competitive support cast with Brooks Koepka leading the way there. The likes of Daniel Berger, Billy Horschel, Russell Henley and Kevin Chappell are all recent tournament winners.
Market Leaders
Rickie Fowler leads the betting at 8/1 this week but I’ve got to think his mind is elsewhere. He never finished The Memorial brilliantly either which suggests his game isn’t completely how I would want it to be if I was to take a single figure price.
Brooks Koepka is a 12/1 shot and he has been flying just under the radar this year. He has finished third and second here the last two years and is ready to win again. Adam Scott is a shade bigger than Koepka at 14/1. He will be tackling the course for the first time in 10 years which puts me off a little despite his undoubted quality.
Phil Mickelson has an amazing record around here and now that he has said he won’t be playing the US Open next week he can concentrate purely on winning this golf tournament. I’m sure he will be popular here at 16/1. It is 20’1 bar that quartet.
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Main Bets
There are two main bets for me this week. I liken this course to a couple of others that is used on the PGA Tour most notably the RSM Classic and the Puerto Rico Open. Billy Horschel lost in a play-off in the first of those this season despite being in pretty average form at the time. Since then he has gone on to triumph at the Byron Nelson Classic and is hitting the ball nicely again. He missed the tournament last year but has three successive top 10s in his last three outings and sitting 10th in GIR on the Tour he must be a leading player this week.
Ian Poulter was third in Puerto Rico last year having held the lead going into the final round and he is definitely in better form now than he was then. This is his last chance to qualify for the US Open after he pulled out of qualifying recently and I expect a big week. We saw at Sawgrass how proficient he is in the wind and sitting eighth in strokes gained approaching the green and third in strokes gained around them he should be in contention here.
Outsiders
I’ve got a few outside bets, two of which are complete shots in the dark but I think they are all worth trying. Stewart Cink is in great form at the minute and as an Open champion we don’t need to question his ability in the wind. He is 12th in strokes gained into the greens and has nine top 30s in his last 12 starts. He has good form here too which he looks ready to enhance.
Brian Gay is back to putting like we know that he can and that can be a big asset to him this week. He has shown form in the right tournaments down the years to suggest he will go well here not least when he won this tournament in 2009. He was sixth here last year and is going a lot better now. He’s a no brainer bet as a horse for the course.
Scott Brown has a good record in those tournaments I mentioned above and at 100/1 I’ll pay to see how he goes here too. He was in the top 12 here a couple of years ago and has already gone well at various stages this season. His length will help as will his liking to the wind and I have to pay to see how he goes.
Looking through history in the OHL Classic, the RSM Classic and the Puerto Rico Open and the name of Will Mackenzie keeps popping up in the top 10 over the last 5-6 years or so and he has won in Reno-Tahoe too so he looks fine in the wind. His form is poor at the minute but it is interesting that the only two cuts he’s made in recent times were in Puerto Rico and at Pebble Beach where the wind blows. He’s a massive price but he could run hot.
Tips
PLACED – Back B.Horschel to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Cink to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Brown to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back W.MacKenzie to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 401.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back I.Poulter to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Gay to win St Jude Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
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