The Premier League is back on Friday night with all eyes being on the top end of the division to see if anyone can get close to Manchester City this season. On the face of it the big six look to have got bigger while the three promoted sides are having a go so we are set up for a decent season.
Manchester City were miles clear of the rest last season and Pep Guardiola’s men will be looking to emulate their achievements this season. Some big clubs will be out to stop them though which makes for a fascinating campaign.
Recent Winners
2017-18 – Manchester City
2016-17 – Chelsea
2015-16 – Leicester City
2014-15 – Chelsea
2013-14 – Manchester City
2012-13 – Manchester United
2011-12 – Manchester City
2010-11 – Manchester United
2009-10 – Chelsea
2008-09 – Manchester United
The Favourites
Manchester City are the emphatic 4/6 favourites to defend their title. They picked up 100pts last season and were almost impossible to beat with their silky style and fantastic football. It would be bordering on bonkers to expect them to achieve those heights again but they had so much in hand of the rest of the league that they are going to have to regress badly if nobody improves behind them. The addition of Riyad Mahrez tells me this City side aren’t ready to go backwards.
Liverpool are seen as the likely nearest challengers. They are the 4/1 second favourites this season and in truth they should be the closest challengers to City when you consider they have spent well over £200 million on their squad. Liverpool are great to watch but are they really reliable at the back all of a sudden? I’m not convinced. I expect Liverpool to go well but second season syndrome is an issue in my mind.
Manchester United are the third favourites for the title at 7/1. This is a big season for United. I get the impression their fans are getting cheesed off with Jose Mourinho and I certainly don’t blame them. He has already spent a packet on his squad and now he is sounding off that he hasn’t been supported. If you are taking the 7s on United I think it is only right to factor in the potential for Mourinho to sign his own P45. This feels like a season where something is going to give at Old Trafford and the chances are it will be the manager that goes. That might not be a bad thing mind you.
The Contenders
Chelsea are the fourth favourites to land the title at 14/1 but they will need a serious improvement on what they delivered in the Community Shield. They will have Eden Hazard back but he doesn’t seem overly committed to proceedings while Thibaut Courtois has jumped ship. Even the manager is claiming that he will need three months to implement his style so the vibes coming out of Stamford Bridge are not exactly positive.
Much has been made of the fact that the transfer window has closed and Tottenham has not signed anyone but little has been pointed out with the fact that in truth they didn’t need anyone they just need a better run with injuries over the course of the campaign. Tottenham are 16/1 to win the title and while I think that is beyond them they should not be disrespected or written off as also-rans just yet.
Arsenal have been on the decline over the last 2-3 seasons, some would say longer but there is the potential for change this term under a more dynamic, modern manager who has signed well to compliment the progressive players that Arsene Wenger finally managed to bring to the club. I actually think that Liverpool aside, Arsenal have the chance of showing the biggest improvement in behind Man City but I still don’t see them as genuine title contenders.
Best of the Rest
Everton had a wonderful transfer deadline day and a more positive outlook should see them regain their space as best of the rest and if someone from the top six makes a Horlicks of things they might even be able to push in among the elite. Marco Silva certainly sets his sides up to play nice football but I do wonder just what he has achieved so far for the reputation he carries. Nevertheless, it is the players who do the business and they have it in them to be the best of the rest.
Wolves have been spending big for the last 15 months and given the money they have laid out they should be confident of a decent finish in their first campaign back in the top flight as a return. Whether Wolves can break into the top seven so soon remains to be seen but it is easy to see why bookmakers are taking no chances.
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Title Betting
I’m no backer of a 4/6 shot over nine months but I don’t see anyone other than Manchester City winning the title. With Manchester United and Chelsea on the decline and Tottenham potentially standing still I fully expect Liverpool to be the closest and possibly even the only challengers to City this season.
There still isn’t much value in that prediction though so I’m going to take a chance that while United and Chelsea fade away that Arsenal come good under Unai Emery and put themselves as the best team behind City and Liverpool. You can get 25/1 on that tricast and that looks like a fair bet to last the course of the season.
Top Half Finish
When you think that six of the places in the top half finish market have been taken up by the big six and then Everton are likely to take another one there are three spots left for 13 sides to compete for. Last season Burnley, Leicester City and Newcastle United took those spots.
Burnley are in Europe this season which might impact on their league form especially if they make the group stages of the Europa League while Newcastle are a timebomb waiting to explode with tensions between owner and manager ready to hit melting point. That makes me head further down the pecking order for a bet and Fulham are the team I fancy could surprise a few this season.
Slavisa Jokanovic has made some good signings in the form of Alfie Mawson, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Andre Schurrle while Joe Bryan is a talented player too. Speaking of talented players they managed to keep hold of Ryan Sessegnon who could be the superstar of the league this term. Fulham will go well this season and at 9/2 I’m prepared to wager they break into the top 10.
Tips
Back Man City-Liverpool-Arsenal tricast for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Ladbrokes
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Back Fulham Top Half Finish for a 2/10 stake at 5.50 with Boylesports
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