A legend of the game of golf is honoured this week when the Arnold Palmer Invitational is played out in Florida and it is a modern day legend who will steal much of the spotlight as Tiger Woods looks to win around Bay Hill for the ninth time in his career.
If he is to win he will have seen off a decent field which includes the defending champion Marc Leishman and a host of absolutely top class names. It should be that a tournament carrying Arnie’s name gets a good field and it has.
Recent Winners
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Matt Every
2014 – Matt Every
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Martin Laird
2010 – Ernie Els
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Tiger Woods
The Course
As ever we are at the Bay Hill Gold Club and Lodge this week. Traditionally this has been one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour but the last couple of renewals that has all changed with the event looking to be a testing stop off for those looking to tune up their game ahead of Augusta.
The course is a par 72 which measures 7,419 yards and is largely a second shot golf course. You need to be hitting quality irons shots around here and putting well in order to compete. Leishman’s all-around game was top notch here last year. If greens are missed scrambling is not easy so good approach shots and a hot putter are the keys to success here.
The Field
All the talk will be on Tiger Woods this week, especially as he has just been made the Presidents Cup captain, and he may well be coming up against a series of players who he will be leading in Australia next year. The likes of Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Zach Johnson, Bubba Watson and Brandt Snedeker are all in the field here.
There are some great overseas players teeing it up too including the last two winners Marc Leishman and Jason Day. Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood will be looking to make it back-to-back English winners on the PGA Tour while Henrik Stenson, Alex Noren and Rory McIlroy form a solid European base.
Market Leaders
Having won around here eight times it is logical that Tiger Woods would be the favourite this week although for the last two years many have wondered if he would ever be favourite for a PGA Tour event again. Such has been the quality of his return that he is not only the favourite to win this week but no bigger than 13/2 to do so. We saw him leak one or two shots last week when he was in contention and I’m concerned he is focused solely on Augusta which denies me taking a short price on the legend.
Jason Day has been in excellent form since the turn of the year and having won around here two years ago we shouldn’t be surprised that he is 12/1 to win this week. I’m full of respect for Day and those who like taking odds as short as 12/1 certainly can’t be put off but the price isn’t really for me this week.
Justin Rose looked every bit the winner of the Valspar for 63 holes last week but he couldn’t go with the pace set by Paul Casey in the final round. To be fair he holed nothing on the final day and that is the big concern I have with taking him at 14/1. He may not hole quite enough putts to get over the line here.
Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler both come next in the betting at 18/1. You would definitely be betting on class rather than form taking either of these players. McIlroy has shown nothing at all to suggest he’s about to win anytime soon and with Augusta looming his mind could be elsewhere. I’d take Fowler of the two if I had to take one of them but his form doesn’t have me rushing after him either. It is 22/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
Nobody will be surprised that my main bet this week is going to be Alex Noren. I’ve backed him often enough this season and I’ll take him here too. He bases himself not far from Bay Hill and has been speaking of his comfort and liking for Bermuda greens which is exactly what he is getting here. The Swede is in really good form too. Had JB Holmes not had his finger up his arse for far too long on the final hole of the Farmers, Noren may well have won there and he did nothing wrong falling a shot shy at the Honda a few weeks ago. The PGA Tour win isn’t far away for the classy Swede and I’ll back it to come here.
This is a big week for Adam Scott. He isn’t in the field next week at the Matchplay which only leaves him here and the Shell Houston, should he decide to tee it up there, to get some confidence to take to Augusta with him. There is no way that someone who strikes the ball as well as Scott does should be outside the top 50 in the world and I get the feeling that penny has dropped as there have certainly been signs of some life in his game in recent weeks. He has back-to-back top 20s in the Florida Swing where he has been inside the top 15 for greens hit on both occasions. If that putter catches fire he has the game to go well here as an opening 62 four years ago showed.
Outsiders
I’m a little concerned that Emiliano Grillo has been globetrotting a little too much recently but I just can’t ignore the numbers despite that. He actually looked like the winner in waiting at halfway in India last week but the utter joke nature of the way that course is set up caught him out on the Saturday and despite a decent round to finish the damage had been done. Despite shooting 78 in round three he was second for all around stats in India last week. Grillo is very good tee to green and the last time he was in Florida he led the putting at the Honda. If he doesn’t get jet lag he’s a huge runner here at 66/1.
Jamie Lovemark is trending in the right direction as they say. He was seventh at the Honda and just outside the top 15 at the Valspar last week and on both occasions he was inside the top 10 for all around statistics for those weeks. That bodes very well with an all-round game needed here. Lovemark was sixth here a couple of years ago and with the form he is in I expect him to emulate, if not better that, this week.
Chesson Hadley ticks all the numeric boxes I want him to tick. He hasn’t begun the Florida Swing all that well which is a surprise but his greens hit and his putting stats this season are very strong so there is nothing stopping him from going well here. He was in the mix on the Sunday here in 2014 but that came too soon for him as he posted a final round of 79 but with more experience and some excellent results on both tours behind him over the last year I think if he gets into the mix here he may just stay there.
Tips
Back A.Noren to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back A.Scott to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back E.Grillo to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Lovemark to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back C.Hadley to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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