It is ‘Moving Day’ at the BMW PGA Championship on Saturday with all those who have made the cut looking for big days to either get themselves in position to strike on Sunday or if they are already there then to consolidate that chance.
The weather is set to improve over the course of the weekend so we should be in for some decent golf and with just eight shots between second place and last there is a very competitive tournament taking place.
Round 2 Recap
After another day of low scoring on the West Course, Rory McIlroy has stolen a march on the field and leads by three shots on nine under. Two men are back in the group chasing him and they are the unheralded pair of Sam Horsfield and Sebastien Gros. European number one Tommy Fleetwood is a shot further back on eight under par.
There are some big names on show in the group on seven under par, who could yet get significantly involved in this tournament if they go low on Saturday. They include the defending champion Alex Noren, the man he beat into second last year in Francesco Molinari and Kiradech Aphibarnrat. Our outright pick Alex Levy is alongside the likes of Graeme McDowell, Branden Grace and Matthew Fitzpatrick on six under.
It was another annoying day for us betting wise on Friday with both bets losing. This has been one of those weeks where almost all of the bets have won on the other day to the one I’ve backed them which is frustrating but there is still two days to get some of those losses back.
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Saturday Betting
A market without Rory McIlroy has appeared which I’ve had a look at but I think it is a little early to be getting involved in that particular offering not least because if the course does firm up I’m not convinced McIlroy has this won yet. Even if he does it looks to be a bunfight in behind him so picking who will follow him home would be complete guesswork at this point. With that in mind I’ll head to the two balls for a couple of bets.
Saturday 2 Balls
Rory McIlroy and Sam Horsfield are the final pairing out onto the golf course. They go off at 13.20 BST with Tommy Fleetwood out with Sebastian Gros ten minutes before then. There are some juicy pairings out on the course for the fans in attendance to watch though. Eddie Pepperell and Rafa Cabrera Bello are out in the middle of the morning while local lad Ross Fisher is out with Dubai Desert Classic winner Haotong Li at 11.15. Branden Grace and Graeme McDowell are probably the pick of the pairings at 12.40. I like bets in two others though.
Darren Fichardt vs Fabrizio Zanotti
Match tees off at 12.10 BST
The first pairing I like is the international one of South African player Darren Fichardt and Paraguayan star Fabrizio Zanotti who both tee off on six under par and six back from McIlroy’s lead.
Fichardt amazingly is playing the weekend here for the first time in 2004 which is a pretty good indication of how he could struggle here. He only shot 72 on a scoring day on Friday and I suspect he will be there for the taking from a Zanotti who has a decent recent record in the UK.
Zanotti was seventh here a couple of years ago and was deep in contention when the British Masters was at Woburn a few years ago. He is ticking over nicely and is ahead of the South African in all the leading stats so far. I’m happy to take odds against on the Paraguayan here.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat vs Francesco Molinari
Match tees off at 12.50 BST
The fourth last group out onto the golf course sees Kiradech Aphibarnrat partnering Francesco Molinari with both men teeing off on seven under par and eyeing up big rounds to put themselves right in contention on Sunday.
Molinari is used to being in this position. He has finished in the top 10 here in five of the last six years whereas Aphibarnrat has never really cracked the weekend on this course. Molinari must be feeling good about his game. He shot 67 on Friday without really holing anything and if this course firms up to be more like the conditions he has been playing in out in the US I expect his game to flow as a result.
I thought Aphibarnrat was hanging on a little on Friday. He did that well but over the weekend doing it is another thing entirely. I think you’re going to have to play this course from the short grass on Saturday and I expect Molinari to do that more and so he’s my choice.
Tips
Back F.Zanotti to beat D.Fichardt for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back F.Molinari to beat K.Aphibarnrat for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Coral
Back him here:
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