The first round of the DP World Tour Championship takes place out in Dubai on Thursday when 60 of the leading players on the European Tour take to the Earth Course to open up their tilt at the final event of the season.
With a very low scoring week expected everyone teeing it up will know the need to go low if they are to set up a legitimate shot at the title over the weekend which should make for some exciting golf and plenty of twists and turns.
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First Round Leader
The goalposts have moved this week in regards to the first round leader market as there are 30 groups all off the first tee so the tee times stretch over the course of five hours, which is enough time for conditions to change around so we need to assess them. The forecast is for winds to pick up towards the end of the day which is interesting as a number of players have stated in the past how they want to be out late as the cool air first thing in the morning means that the par 5s aren’t reachable.
It might be that someone in the middle of the pack is the one to be on. The temperatures will warm up early in their round and they should be done before the winds crank up too much so the man I like is Henrik Stenson, who is out at 9.35 local time or 5.35am GMT. Stenson is twice a winner of this tournament and he has got off to decent starts on both occasions so he can fly out of the traps here. I don’t think he is a contender this week as a lack of recent action could see him fade the longer the event goes on but he should be fresh enough to go round tidily on Thursday and if he is in the right position in the draw he could lead the field at the end of the day.
Thursday 2 Balls
This tournament is fantastic because every day we have two balls on the course rather than three balls which means that for all four days we have 30 groups to look at, study and get stuck into and the crowds on the course have a number of insanely good groupings to go and watch.
The field go out in order of the Race to Dubai rankings with the lowest two out first and the leading two of Francesco Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood out in the final two ball. They go off at 08.40 GMT with Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed out 10 minutes before them. Earlier in the morning at 07.30 GMT Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood go off so the coverage will be full of great play. I like two bets on the Thursday card.
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Andrea Pavan vs Ross Fisher
Match tees off at 06.05 GMT
One of the earlier pairings to go out onto the golf course sees the Czech Masters champion Andrea Pavan going out alongside the runner-up in Abu Dhabi much earlier in the season in Ross Fisher with both men looking for big weeks.
I think Fisher holds all the cards here. He has a wonderful record in this part of the world and is one of the best drivers in the game. The rest of his game isn’t bad either. I like Pavan and think he has a big future on this tour but he is making his debut in the tournament. Pavan is down at 115 in the driving distance rankings so a lot of the par 5s that Fisher will be reaching in two the Italian won’t be. Given that this is his first look at the course and he gives up length to Fisher I don’t like Pavan in this pairing.
Lucas Bjerregaard vs Eddie Pepperell
Match tees off at 08.00 GMT
The fifth to last group out onto the golf course sees two men looking for big weeks to make it into the top 10 of the overall Race to Dubai rankings to get a slice of the bonus pie. Alfred Dunhill Links winner Lucas Bjerregaard takes on British Masters winner Eddie Pepperell in this first round.
This will be the first time that Pepperell will have teed it up since his back issues in China last month and I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes things a little easy in this opening round to convince himself that he has put that injury behind him. Even if he was at full pelt, Pepperell is not a player who leans on the driver very often so he is going to give up plenty of yardage to his Danish opponent.
I’ve already mentioned how I think this course suits Bjerregaard when backing him in the outright preview and given that he is up against an opponent who might be feeling his way a little here and who has only broken 70 twice in 12 rounds on this course, I think the Dane is the one to be on here.
Tips
Back H.Stenson First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
WON – Back R.Fisher to beat A.Pavan for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with BetVictor
Back him here:
Back L.Bjerregaard to beat E.Pepperell for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
Back him here:
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