The appearance of one man will dominate the attention on the PGA Tour this week when a certain Tiger Woods tees it up again at the Famers Insurance Open. This is always one of the best tournaments on the Tour and the highlight of the West Coast swing so we are in for a great week.
Jon Rahm may fly under the radar as the defending champion but he can go to number one in the world should he win the tournament so there are plenty of stories set to play out over the four days at Torrey Pines.
Recent Winners
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bubba Watson
2010 – Ben Crane
2009 – Nick Watney
2008 – Tiger Woods
The Course
There are two courses in use this week as there always is in this tournament. They are the North Course and the South Course at Torrey Pines. The field play a round on each course over the first two days before finishing the tournament with a further 36 holes on the South Course.
Historically the South Course is much the tougher of the two courses. One of the reasons for that is it is so long. It is a par 72 which measures 7,698 yards and can sometimes play the full length. The North Course is a par 72 but is much shorter at 7,256 yards.
Both courses have dense rough so although being long off the tee is a help here we should not ignore accuracy either but with this having hosted a US Open it is a good test of every department. The greens are moderate size and take some finding so scrambling will be key this week too.
The Field
All the talk will be about Tiger Woods this week which will be a surprise to nobody but there are some top players teeing it up as well. Jon Rahm defends the title while stellar players such as Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Rose are also in the field.
Winners already this season such as Patrick Cantlay and Grayson Murray also tee it up this week as does Torrey Pines specialist Brandt Snedeker. Phil Mickelson, Shane Lowry, Brian Harman and Tony Finau are other household names on show.
Market Leaders
It is last week’s winner Jon Rahm who is the 15/2 favourite to win the tournament this week. He is not only looking to win for a second week in a row but he is also out to defend the title and historically that doesn’t happen very often. That said he is playing amazing golf at the minute and if anyone can buck that trend it is him.
Rickie Fowler is the 12/1 second favourite to win the title. You wonder if he is solid enough off the tee to get the job done here. Certainly he is long enough so if he keeps it in play off the tee then the rest of his game should have him go well but there isn’t a huge amount of margin in the price it must be said.
Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Rose are next in the betting at 16/1. Rose is in sensational form at the minute but he does have the Abu Dhabi to California time switch to adjust to. Matsuyama hasn’t impressed too much in recent times and you wonder when his form will return. I’ll pass over him until he shows something again but Rose is harder to ignore. It is 22/1 bar that quartet.
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Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week and the first of those is on Jason Day who has an excellent record around here. Day begins a new era in this tournament having changed his caddie towards the end of last season. He pretty much wrote off the end of 2017 to make sure he was good for 2018 and on a course he has won on and has an ideal skill set for I think it is worth taking him this week. The return of Woods and a slide down the rankings are likely to inspire him so I’ll take Day to win here again.
I’ve said it for a while that I’m a massive fan of Patrick Cantlay. I took him in the money list this season and I am taking him here too. He is extremely proficient off the tee where he is long enough without lacking accuracy and the rest of his game is in good order too. Cantlay had a wonderful campaign last season and he has begun this one well too. I expect him to kick on again in 2018 especially now that he has won a tournament and 33/1 is a more than fair price here.
Outsiders
One thing we see regularly on the West Coast swing is players backing up a big week with another and I fancy Andrew Landry can do that here. I took him last week and landed a place at a bumper price and there was enough in that tournament to like about him here. He was very solid off the tee and with irons in his hand he was even better. He scrambled and putted brilliantly all week and I expect another strong showing here. I saw enough last week to back him again.
Aaron Wise has displayed a number of solid efforts without that real standout performance this season but when you crunch the numbers down he should go well here. In his last 10 tournaments he has been in the top 10 in both greens in regulation and the putting stats while his length off the tee is a feature of his game. If he can put everything together in the same event then this could be his breakthrough week.
I made enough last week to allow myself a punt on KJ Choi. He has finished second twice in the last four years in this tournament and while there has been an all or nothing element to his finishes in this event it could be worth paying to see if this is an all week. I say that because at the RSM Classic he led the field in driving accuracy and was eleventh in greens hit. He holed nothing that week but having run hot a few times here these greens should suit him more. If that tee to green game comes to Torrey Pines with him he could go close once again.
Tips
WON – Back J.Day to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back P.Cantlay to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back A.Landry to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Wise to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back K-J.Choi to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 351.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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Nice Preview as always Kev, I must congratulate you on that great call on Andrew Landry last week at a mega 150/1. Very unlucky indeed not to reel the big fish into the boat there. I guess had anyone followed your advice the would surely have cashed out for a sizeable profit. Great shout.
Cheers mate. I thought I was finally reeling in the elusive big fish but not to be. I’ll keep trying!
Well done Kev. Very nice call. I think Noren got a little to greedy going for it in 2. Hard to survive a dip in the water in matchplay conditions.
Cheers mate. Yeah fortunately for me Noren fell in that indifferent position off the tee. 5 yards further and he would have been fine. 5 yards shorter and he’d have been forced to lay up.