With the Grand National out of the way, it’s full steam ahead for the flat season & we have the excellent 3 day Craven meeting from Newmarket to get stuck into this week. The big race comes up towards the end of the week but there is some decent racing taking place on the opening day on Tuesday and we’re going to have a crack at three of them.
4.10 Newmarket: Class 2, 1 Mile Handicap
Preview
A big field of 19 & a tough puzzle to solve. Fire Brigade was well fancied for the Lincoln but ran no sort of race & it may just be that this handicap mark is too much. He isn’t one to be taking a shortish price about in such a competitive handicap. Mafaaheem looks very progressive for Sheikh Hamdan but continues to rise in the weights whilst having a touch of seconditis.
Betting
I can make a good case for a few of these, not least Sinfonietta & Plutonian, but the one we’re siding with is Chiefofchiefs. He’s won 3 of his 11 career starts & his trainer is convinced there’s a big prize in this fella. His big target was the Cambridgeshire but he failed to get in. Instead, he took in the Silver Cambridgeshire & was under 3 lengths behind easy Lincoln winner Addeybb in that, when not getting the best of runs. He was also just 2 lengths behind Fire Brigade & is now 13lbs better off with that rival. That race also proved his liking for this track.
After winning a 0-105 handicap at York in the summer, finishing strongly from off the pace, he went up 2lbs to a mark of 88 & saw his mark unchanged for the next 4 runs in the light of some good runs. 3rd of 17 at Thirsk & 4th of 16 in that Newmarket race bookended 2 disappointing runs, where he had excuses (trip, surface, small field).
He goes best in big fields & finishes his races off well. A mile is his ideal trip, he’ll go on the ground & his mark looks to be one he can win off. Provided he gets here ready to roll after a 200 day absence, he should go well in a race that will throw up plenty of winners.
Tips
Back Chiefofchiefs (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 12.00 888sport BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
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4.45 Newmarket: Listed Feilden Stakes
Preview
Just the 8 runners with 2 that appear to stand out in O’Brien’s Kew Gardens & Johnston’s Mildenberger. The latter raced 5 times as a 2 year old, winning 3 & running 3rd twice in big races (Vintage Stakes & Royal Lodge). However, there has to be doubts as to how he’ll progress from 2 to 3, especially as it appeared that his improvement plateaued later in the season.
Kew Gardens looks the class act of the race but it might be that he needs further given his win at the tail end of the season in the 10 furlong Zetland Stakes. Both of the market principles like to force the pace & it could mean that something in behind can come & land the spoils.
Betting
As an each way to nothing, Msayyan is the best. This one comes from a top yard that has won 2 of the last 3 runnings of the race, including with 2015 Derby winner Golden Horn. In those 2 races, the winner had the lowest & 2nd lowest ORs in the field so the fact our selection hasn’t got an OR yet but is against 5 horses with 100+ marks isn’t a concern.
What our selection has is bags of potential. He ran 2nd in a Kempton race when travelling sweetly & failing narrowly before asserting after making all in a Nottingham maiden on ground very similar to this. He holds a Derby entry & the fact his trainer sends him, as opposed to any of his other possibilities, here is a tip in itself. Comments like “he’s been impressing at home” and “it’s a nice starting point” are examples of positive noises from the yard & he’s sure to go well en route to bigger & better things in his Classic year.
Tips
Back Msayyan (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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5.20 Newmarket: Class 2, 7 Furlong Handicap
Preview
Like the earlier handicap on the card, this is ridiculously competitive & there are no shortage of possibilities. In the end, we decided on a bet in a race purely because one of the horses could prove to be significantly ahead of a rapidly dropping mark.
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Betting
Northern raider Robero is the horse in question & gets in here off a mark of 90. After winning a Class 3 handicap at Pontefract off this mark & with today’s jockey on board, he went on to run 6 times without success. Immediately after that win, he ran 5th in the Bunbury Cup off a mark of 97 despite having the worst of the draw. That marked him down as a horse still to keep on side but it never really happened after that.
6 furlongs at Ripon was too sharp, he then took too keen a hold over course & distance before finishing 3rd in a Musselburgh handicap when again he was dealt a cruel hand with the draw. He only faded late on after having to use up energy early doors getting a position.
His final 2 runs were at Doncaster, the first of which over an inadequate 6 furlongs. His last run was back over 7 furlongs & he was 7th of 19 running with credit but probably feeling the effects of a hard season. This trip on easy ground suits & with a top jockey booking, he should go well in a very open heat.
Tips
VOID – Back Robero (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 13.00 Coral BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
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