The Open has reached the final round stage with the latest recipient of the Claret Jug being determined on the Carnoustie links on Sunday and we are all set up for a thrilling conclusion to the tournament.
We have the toughest course on the open rota, a wonderfully strong leaderboard and on Sunday we will have the worst of the weather for the players to deal with so the end to the third major of the year promises to be intriguing.
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Round 3 Recap
It was a low scoring Moving Day in perfect conditions and at the end of it we have a trio of players tied for the lead with the defending champion Jordan Spieth alongside Xander Schauffele and Kevin Kisner on nine under par. They are two clear of Kevin Chappell who is seven under and our pre-tournament outright pick Francesco Molinari is three off the lead on six under. There is a stacked group on five under par, four off the lead, which includes another of our outright bets in Alex Noren, Rory McIlroy and a certain Tiger Woods so we are set for a wonderful conclusion.
It was a level day for us betting wise with Haotong Li thrashing Beau Hossler in our first two ball bet but sadly two rotten holes cost Zach Johnson dear in his two ball. We gained big strides with Molinari and Noren though so it was a much better day than it looked overall.
Sunday Betting
We have a few big markets to go at on Sunday. There is obviously the outright market which I think I’ve got covered anyway with Francesco Molinari and Alex Noren already backed. I’d like to think I’m going to get something back through them and if the forecasted wind levels arrive I might yet get the full win. With that in mind I’m more interested in one of the other markets.
That one is the Top 10 finish. I’m interested in this because the wind is expected to get up in the afternoon and gusts of 25-30mph winds are being forecast around 3pm and just after. That is when the leaders tee off so I think there is the chance for a score to be posted from early on and it lasts the day and sneaks into the top 10. The person I like for that is Eddie Pepperell. He is one under par but we saw in Ireland a couple of years ago that the tougher the conditions the better he plays. He also played well in the wind in Scotland last week. He tees off at 11.40 so he should be done around 3.30 so while he will have wind to deal with he won’t have the heavy stuff. If he can break 70 and post -3 or even one better he may well find his way through the back door into the top 10.
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Sunday 2 Balls
The players are back out in two balls on Sunday with the final group of Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele out onto the golf course at 14.45 BST. They will be looking to become the first winner of the tournament at Carnoustie to win from the final group. Kevin Kisner and Kevin Chappell are out in the second to last group at 14.35 BST. Much earlier in the day the Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson group at 09.20 and Patrick Reed and Rickie Fowler pairing at 11.30 will take plenty of the crowds with them. I like two late groups for betting purposes.
Tommy Fleetwood vs Zach Johnson
Match tees off at 13.55 BST
Two men who are bang in contention for this tournament on five under par are Tommy Fleetwood and Zach Johnson and they will look to launch a charge at the title on the final day when they go out six groups from home.
It is fair to say that neither man had their best stuff with them on Saturday but generally when Fleetwood has had a poor day in recent times he has followed it up with something substantial and I’m expecting him to have a good day on Sunday. Zach Johnson is having a good week but with the wind set to get up and change direction I fear he isn’t long enough to cope. I like Fleetwood here.
Rory McIlroy vs Matt Kuchar
Match tees off at 14.05 BST
Two more men who are on five under par and four off the lead teeing off are Rory McIlroy and Matt Kuchar and they too will be looking to get moving early and go on to have a tilt at the title over the final 18 holes.
McIlroy actually said in his interview on Saturday after his indifferent round that he is going to go on the attack and try to make something happen but that won’t be easy if the winds are up and actually we’ve already seen this very situation at Wentworth earlier in the year in conditions more favourable for McIlroy. He made a mess of that and with Kuchar likely to adopt his patient approach I think the American is huge value here. Kuchar can play in the wind as we saw last year so he won’t be going anywhere and over the 18 holes I think he can see off a McIlroy who could fall right out of contention by pushing too much.
Tips
WON – Back E.Pepperell Top 10 Finish for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair
WON – Back T.Fleetwood to beat Z.Johnson for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
Back them here:
Back M.Kuchar to beat R.McIlroy for a 4/10 stake at 2.75 with William Hill
Back him here:
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