The focus descends on the Big Apple for the next two weeks as the final Grand Slam of the year takes place in New York when the stars of the game collide in the US Open. The big three have each won a Slam this year but you get the feeling this one looks the most wide open event in some time.
Rafael Nadal heads to Flushing Meadows looking to defend his title but with a resurgent Novak Djokovic and a Roger Federer who is as classy as ever not to mention the new brigade we are set for an outstanding fortnight.
Recent Winners
2017 – Rafael Nadal
2016 – Stan Wawrinka
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Marin Cilic
2013 – Rafael Nadal
2012 – Andy Murray
2011 – Novak Djokovic
2010 – Rafael Nadal
2009 – Juan Martin del Potro
2008 – Roger Federer
The Format
There might have been changed to the Flushing Meadows layout but there have been no changes to the format. Every match from the first round to the final is the best of five sets but unlike the controversy we got in the Wimbledon semi-final there is a tiebreak in the final set here. The draw has been pre-determined with the champion being crowned on the second Sunday of the tournament.
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Top Quarter
It is the world number one and defending champion Rafael Nadal who is the top seed this week. The Toronto champion arrives here in decent touch and will be tough to stop. Kevin Anderson is seeded to be his quarter final opponent in what would be a repeat of the 2017 final. The other seeds in this part of the draw are Dominic Thiem, Denis Shapovalov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Kyle Edmund, Jack Sock and Karen Khachanov.
Among those who are not ranked high enough to be seeded are David Ferrer, Gilles Muller, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Winston-Salem finalist Steve Johnson, Mischa Zverev, Sam Querrey and Jeremy Chardy among others so this is a pretty competitive quarter you would have to say.
Second Quarter
2009 champion Juan Martin del Potro heads up the seedings in the second quarter of the draw. Many fancy him to have a deep run in his favourite tournament and if the event goes to the seeds he will play Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter final. The other six seeds in this section are Milos Raonic, Damir Dzumhur, John Isner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Borna Coric and Fernando Verdasco so we can expect plenty of aces in this quarter.
Two names stand out among the unseeded players in this quarter as former winners Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka are both in it. Wawrinka has drawn Grigor Dimitrov in the opening round. Other names that catch the eye are Feliciano Lopez, Winston-Salem winner Daniil Medvedev, Cameron Norrie and Gilles Simon in what should be the best quarter in the draw.
Third Quarter
Alexander Zverev has a poor Grand Slam record but he will look to put that right in this third quarter although it might be the 2014 champion Marin Cilic who will be fancied to come through it. Those two are seeded to meet in the quarter final but Filip Krajinovic, Kei Nishikori, Diego Schwartzman, David Goffin, Marco Cecchinato and Adrian Mannarino will all be out to deny them.
It is fair to say this isn’t the strongest quarter in terms of seeded players and there aren’t many unseeded players who stand out either with the exception of Alex de Minaur, Frances Tiafoe, Gael Monfils and Philipp Kohlschreiber. This feels like a wide open section where anything can happen.
Bottom Quarter
This is the part of the draw where we will find Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic who could meet in what would be an epic quarter final. Among the seeds looking to stop that match up from taking place are Richard Gasquet, Lucas Pouille, Pablo Carreno Busta, Fabio Fognini, Hyeon Chung and Nick Kyrgios. This should be an entertaining quarter with so many shot makers in it.
There are some shot makers who aren’t seeded in this quarter as well. Benoit Paire is among the more entertaining players to watch while Joao Sousa and Marcos Baghdatis have plenty of flair in their play too. Viktor Troicki is back in a Grand Slam in this event too.
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Outright Betting
Rafael Nadal looks to have a standout draw to make it to at least the quarter final and probably beyond but I’m reluctant to take 3/1 on him over a two week tournament given the doubts there always are with regards to injuries and things but at the same time I wouldn’t want to be opposing him until I’ve got some each way money in the bank so I’ll head to the other half for a punt.
The other half is all about Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer but only one of them can make the semi-final. Federer hasn’t won here since 2008 and has only made one final since del Potro beat him in 2009. Djokovic won Wimbledon and then Cincinnati and has shortened a lot off the back of that but we shouldn’t forget that Adrian Mannarino, Grigor Dimitrov, Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic all took sets off him in that event so Djokovic isn’t quite the man who won here in 2015 yet.
I like Marin Cilic here. He has won here in 2014 and is in excellent form. He made the semis in Rome before Alexander Zverev beat him. They are due to meet in the quarter finals here but the Grand Slam record of the German makes me believe Cilic will get the better of him should they meet. Since Rome, Cilic made the quarter finals in Paris and in Toronto where he lost to Nadal in three sets and he pushed Djokovic all the way in Cincinnati too. With the draw he has 20/1 on Cilic looks the best way to play the main draw this fortnight.
Quarter Betting
I’m going to have a go at a couple of the quarters this week as well. Juan Martin del Potro is the favourite for the second quarter and if he is fully fit he’ll be tough to beat but he’s had plenty of injury issues in recent times which concerns me. Stefanos Tsitsipas is being talked up as the next big thing after his Toronto run but whether he’s ready to go deep in best of five sets just yet I’m not convinced. He’s a dangerous floater though for sure. Only one of Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka will make the last 16 here but I fancy that could be the latter and with that in mind he’s my pick at 10/1. He’s spent most of 2018 getting up to speed but he has come alive a little more in the hard court season. He has wins over Nick Kyrgios, Diego Schwartzman and Kei Nishikori in Toronto and Cincinnati and ran Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer close in defeat. Wawrinka isn’t back to his best but he’s getting there. He had a tough first round draw but if he can come through that with the freedom of no expectation that others may not have he can go close here at 10/1.
In the bottom quarter whichever way I look at it I can’t not see Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic competing under the lights in the quarter final. Nick Kyrgios might have something to say about that but over five sets I don’t see him beating Federer especially with the New York crowd likely to be against him. It is 11/10 Djokovic and 15/8 Federer in this quarter which is slightly skewed by the Cincinnati final where Federer clearly wasn’t at his best. There’s nothing to suggest he wouldn’t be in a quarter final here though and he won’t be 15/8 to win it. I’ll take him now for the quarter.
Tips
Back M.Cilic to win US Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back S.Wawrinka to win 2nd Quarter for a 2/10 stake at 11.00 with Boylesports
Back him here:
Back R.Federer to win 4th Quarter for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Coral
Back him here:
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