The final round of the USPGA Championship is all set to be a fascinating, high quality shootout between some of the best players in the world as the last major of the year draws to a conclusion in St Louis.
It is not just the final round of the last major as far as the Americans are concerned. It is the last day for them to score points to go towards the Ryder Cup standings. On a course which is at the mercy of the players the golf should be red hot.
Round 3 Recap
It was a busy Saturday for many players with a good number of them playing up to 30 holes after the rain delay of Friday and at the end of it, two time US Open champion Brooks Koepka holds a two shot lead on 12 under par. He leads by two from Adam Scott with Rickie Fowler and Jon Rahm a further shot behind on nine under. Gary Woodland is on that score too.
For the second major in a row Tiger Woods is deep in the mix. He is eight under and just four shots back. Jason Day, Justin Thomas and Shane Lowry are part of a deep group on the same score who could easily come through and win this tournament. The Open champion Francesco Molinari goes in search of back-to-back majors from five off the lead.
As far as main bets go we’ve only really got the outright market. There isn’t really a situation like at The Open where we could take a chance on someone out of the places to finish in the top 10 because this is just going to be a straight shootout so while the other of the top 10 might change those coming in won’t be from too far back so value is minimal.
I thought about trying the outright market but upon reflection, while Brooks Koepka has brought everyone back into the mix with his indifferent finish on Saturday he is still the man I expect to win the tournament from the front but while I expect him to win opposing the quality of chasers with a skinny price isn’t really for me.
Sunday 2 Balls
Instead I’ll take a bet from the two balls. The final pair of Brooks Koepka and Adam Scott will go out at 19.55 BST while the powerful and heavyweight pair of Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler go out at 19.45. Tiger Woods steps onto the golf course alongside Gary Woodland at 19.35 while earlier in the day Rory McIlroy is out with Mike Lorenzo-Vera at 16.11 and Dustin Johnson partners Chris Kirk at 17.35. My bet comes from the penultimate group.
Jon Rahm vs Rickie Fowler
Match tees off at 19.45 BST
If the winner comes from outside the final group then the chances are it will come in the second to last group onto the golf course when Jon Rahm partners Rickie Fowler in what could be a mini prelude to the Ryder Cup next month.
Both men go out on nine under par and three off the lead. Fowler’s tee to green game has been precise and perfect this week but he has holed absolutely nothing. He will need his long game to stay the same but too often we’ve seen him struggle with it in final rounds. Rahm hasn’t been quite as precise from tee to green, although you wouldn’t necessarily expect him to be with his power but this course is set up for him to get after.
Rahm hasn’t made a bogey since the first round and with his power off the tee opening up a number of these holes I’m expecting him to make something of a move on Sunday. Whether that is enough to win remains to be seen but I do think he’ll take care of Fowler.
WON – Back J.Rahm to beat R.Fowler for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Ladbrokes