August begins with a couple of big weeks of golf with the latest WGC tournament taking place this week when the leading lights in the game descend on Firestone Country Club for the final time for the WGC Bridgestone Invitational.
Despite the final major of the season taking place next week anyone who is anyone in the world of golf has made it through to this tournament and will warm up for the USPGA in this high profile event in which Hideki Matsuyama came from nowhere to claim the title last year.
Recent Winners
2017 – Hideki Matsuyama
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Shane Lowry
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Keegan Bradley
2011 – Adam Scott
2010 – Hunter Mahan
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Vijay Singh
The Course
Firestone Country Club hosts for the final time this week before the tournament moves elsewhere for next week. It remains one of the tougher par 70s on the golfing circuit. One of the reasons for that is that it plays to a 7,400 yardage and with a bit of rain around earlier in the week it will probably play pretty long too.
Accuracy is generally key to this event. The rough can be lively especially now that it is wet and hitting greens in regulation has always been a huge key to success in this tournament. I guess length will be an advantage this week with the softer conditions but we should not swap that over accuracy. All previous winners listed above have been good drivers of the ball and exceptional second shot players.
The Field
Everyone is in the field who you would expect to be in it this week with the exception of Justin Rose. He pulled out with injury but the likes of Dustin Johnson, winner last week and here two years ago, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler are all in the field and teeing it up.
Former champions Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott tee it up as do the winners of the first three majors of the year – Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka and Francesco Molinari. Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren head up the European charge alongside the Italian in what looks like being a great week of golf.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson goes into the week as the 7/1 favourite to land the title and after coasting to victory in Canada last week it would be foolish to write him off but even the world number one may not find it easy to win back-to-back weeks especially in this company. At this price he needs to be respected but not necessarily backed from a value point of view.
Rory McIlroy is the second favourite at 11/1 and depending on just how soft the course plays he could have an excellent chance of picking up this title for a second time although he still doesn’t look right on his game to me. His putting hasn’t convinced me for a good while and although his finish at The Open was good position wise you never got the feeling he was going to win that week. This might be another week where he hangs around and places at best.
Tiger Woods is a 12/1 third favourite to land this tournament. He has won around here eight times and after his return to form at Carnoustie bookmakers are clearly taking no chances but he admitted himself prior to that tournament that if he wins again it will be on a track where length is no advantage. That isn’t a characteristic here so while his past record merits respect he’s definitely a no go at the prices.
Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler will tee off as 20/1 shots to land the title. I’m not convinced Spieth is anywhere near where he would need to be to win this tournament and even if he was firing on all cylinders this course might be a little long for him. Rickie Fowler keeps on arriving at courses that should suit his game but doesn’t deliver for four days. Both can be passed over. It is 22/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week. It took a lot of effort to ignore Francesco Molinari but two weeks after winning a first major and with the course playing fairly long I’ve just about managed to leave him out of my staking plan.
Tommy Fleetwood has given me the impression for a while that he is ready to win a bigger than normal event and this is a course that should suit him given the need for accuracy into the greens. He has threatened at the US Open and The Open over the last six weeks or so but it might be that a major is a step further than he is at right now. This shouldn’t be though and heading into a big stretch of golf the European number one is likely to be right up for the challenge. He drives the ball well and finds a lot of greens. If he can get the putter working early he can be dangerous. We know he has low rounds in him and at 28/1 he stands out to me.
Xander Schauffele went so much better than I expected at The Open and that might well bode well for him here. Although Carnoustie didn’t play as tough as it could have in the first three days he still had to find the fairways and greens which he did. I didn’t think he was that bad in the final round either but like Fleetwood a major might be an extra step for him. This should be perfect though. He went well here on debut last season and looks to be hitting form again after an equipment change earlier in the year. At 33/1 he’s entitled to be a challenger here.
Outsiders
There are three players who stand out to me at bigger than normal prices. If Webb Simpson can display his usual tee-to-green strength, especially a game quality like he had at TPC Sawgrass earlier in the year, then he’s entitled to be going very well around here. Admitted course form is not on his side but actually the last two winners here had done nothing and then won the title. Both were enjoying stellar seasons at the time too. Simpson is in the middle of a good campaign and he can enhance that and his Ryder Cup ambitions with a tilt at the title here.
We go back to my regular two jaunts for my last two bets. When tee-to-green proficiency is needed time and again I go to Emiliano Grillo and Kyle Stanley and I’m not deserting them this week. Stanley showed at The Memorial that he has the ability to contend in higher profile events while Grillo should really be in the mix whenever he tees it up with his game. Both are capable of big weeks at crazy prices considering we are guaranteed four rounds in a field of just 71.
Tips
Back T.Fleetwood to win WGC Bridgestone Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back X.Schauffele to win WGC Bridgestone Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back W.Simpson to win WGC Bridgestone Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back E.Grillo to win WGC Bridgestone Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with BetBright (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back K.Stanley to win WGC Bridgestone Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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