2018 WGC HSBC Champions Golf – Tournament Outright Betting Preview

The world of golf comes together this week for the last WGC event of the year which as ever is the HSBC Champions tournament, which takes place out in China and sees some of the very best in the game battling it out for a big title.

This tournament counts towards the FedEx Cup, European Tour and PGA Tour but perhaps at this time of year the Race to Dubai points it carries is of more importance. Justin Rose picked up plenty last year when he won the title which set up his FedEx Cup victory.

Recent Winners

2017 – Justin Rose

2016 – Hideki Matsuyama

2015 – Russell Knox

2014 – Bubba Watson

2013 – Dustin Johnson

2012 – Ian Poulter

2011 – Martin Kaymer

2010 – Francesco Molinari

2009 – Phil Mickelson

The Course

The tournament takes place at the Sheshan International Golf Club once again this week. It has been held here since 2013 and a look at the winners in that time will highlight classy ball strikers in the main and that rings true when you look at the course itself.

The course is a par 72 which only measures 7,261 yards which is not especially long by modern day standards. Usually the modern game is about smashing the par 5s but that is hard on this track with them regularly being the hardest set of holes on the Tour. One reason for that is this is such a tough course to scramble on so going for the greens in two and missing them makes life very difficult. With that in mind we are looking for pure iron players and good drivers who have good weeks with the short stick.

The Field

Many of the leading players in the world are here this week including the new world number one and winner of the CJ Cup last week in Brooks Koepka. The man he displaced at the top of the rankings is also here in Dustin Johnson while the other man in that top spot discussion, defending champion Justin Rose also tees it up.

Rory McIlroy takes his place in the field this week as do the Ryder Cup star duo of Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari. Their teammates Paul Casey, Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton are also in the field as are the men they beat in the form of Masters champion Patrick Reed and Tony Finau. Alex Noren is another player who is in the field here.

Market Leaders

Dustin Johnson is the 8/1 favourite this week which highlights the quality of the field on show as normally the former world number one would be a whole lot shorter than that. He is a former winner who probably should have won around here last year so it is not hard to argue that he is the man to beat but there is a stack of quality opposing him so I would prefer to look for value elsewhere.

Brooks Koepka goes in search of another title in what has so far been a wonderful 2018 for the US Open and USPGA winner. He is 17/2 to win this tournament but regular readers will know I’m reluctant to take a player who has won the previous week no matter how good he is. There is usually a comedown at some point and that can’t be afforded around here.

Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy will begin the tournament as 10/1 shots. Rose has it all around here and if his putter is in good nick he could be very tough to beat. He is showing a few signs of fatigue though at the minute and although his overall results have been strong recently there have been a few times when he has finished fast from down the field which skews that. This has never truly struck me as a course that McIlroy would go well on.

Jason Day warmed up for the week with a solid effort in Korea last week and at 18/1 he will have his supporters but I’m not convinced enough by his long game either so I’ll pass him over. Hideki Matsuyama looks a much stronger proposition at 20/1, especially having won around this golf course in the past. He has six top 20s on the spin on the PGA Tour but you sense he isn’t quite tip top with his game.

[the_ad_group id=”3624″]

Main Bets

Matthew Fitzpatrick has a decent record around this course and he is my first main bet this week. He is ready to take another tournament down I’m convinced of that and his pinpoint iron play can be a real factor in that. We know he is confident on the greens which is a good thing around here and his previous successes where he is yet to finish worse than T16 highlights that he gets on well with these dancefloors. Some of the market leaders look like they are hitting the red zone in their petrol tank but that shouldn’t be the case for Fitzy. I’ll go with him.

I’m expecting Xander Schauffele to win a big tournament this season having contended so well around Carnoustie in the summer. That showed his rookie season on the PGA Tour was no fluke and now that his second term is in the books it is about time he becomes a prominent winner because he has everything he needs to do so. I think he is worth taking at 50/1 this week in the hope his freshness counts for something.

Outsiders

Emiliano Grillo has had a good couple of weeks in Asia so far. He was second in the CIMB Classic a couple of weeks ago and then finished with an excellent round of golf in Korea last week and his game should see him go well for a third week in a row here. He doesn’t miss many greens in regulation and his putting has improved beyond all recognition. This course should give someone with patience the chance to tot up a score and that can be Grillo at a tasty price.

Matt Wallace has had a fantastic year which includes a win in Asia and I think his game is coming around nicely enough to see him go well here too. We saw at the British Masters that his long game is in good order. He clearly got frustrated with the subtle nuances of the Walton Heath greens but he was right there come Sunday only for him to push at the wrong times and come up short. The quality of this course should bring out his best game and at 90/1 I’m happy to get on.

In that British Masters, Alexander Bjork looked like he couldn’t miss a putt if you had paid him to and he arrives in this tournament with a win in China this year already. If he has kept his putter hot then he could be a real threat this week. He is solid off the tee and this course isn’t that long that he’ll have to hit drivers. We saw at Walton Heath that he doesn’t necessarily like that club but with no need to pound it around here the quality of his iron play and putting could see him run strong.

I wouldn’t usually take four outsiders but I can’t resist a cheeky punt on the man who finished behind Bjork at the China Open in Adrian Otaegui. He might be a little out of his depth here but at 500/1 I can afford to pay to find out because in theory he should be perfectly suited to this course with iron play and putting strengths of his game. Otaegui was over 80% for fairways hit and GIR in that China Open and putted brilliantly. A repeat of that makes him a live danger.

Tips

Back M.Fitzpatrick to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-5)

Back M.Wallace to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-5)

Back them here:

WON – Back X.Schauffele to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)

Back him here:

Back E.Grillo to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)

Back him here:

Back A.Bjork to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Unibet (1/4 1-5)

Back A.Otaegui to win WGC HSBC Champions (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 501.00 with Unibet (1/4 1-5)

Back them here:

Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2018