It is that week in the European Tour season where the stars of stage, screen and sport mix with some of the best players in the golfing world for the Dunhill Links Championship, a pro-am event played at three iconic links courses – Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews.
Lucas Bjerregaard outshot the rest in this tournament last year to claim the title and the Dane will be out to make a successful defence here. A decent field has been put together to take him on in what can be a tough watch but usually throws up plenty of excitement come Sunday.
Recent Winners
2018 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Tyrrell Hatton
2015 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2014 – Oliver Wilson
2013 – David Howell
2012 – Branden Grace
2011 – Michael Hoey
2010 – Martin Kaymer
2009 – Simon Dyson
The Format
Each professional teeing it up this week is paired with an amateur partner where the pair play each of the courses over the first three days of the tournament. The top 60 professionals after the third round play the final round at St Andrews on Sunday with the leading 20 pro-am teams also playing out the last 18 holes for their own individual title.
The Courses
Kingsbarns, St Andrews and Carnoustie are the three courses this week with Kingsbarns often the easiest of the rotation and Carnoustie the toughest although they are all set up easier than they would be if they were hosting The Open to allow for the amateurs to get by in a reasonable time limit. As we have seen in the past though, the toughness of all three courses will be determined by the conditions, especially the wind.
The wind might gust a little over the first two days but nothing out of the extraordinary so we should expect a low scoring event, one where scrambling and putting will be of huge importance. I always like a little length on these links courses at this time of year because the rough is rarely too thick so power off the tee opens up a lot more options into the greens.
The Field
It is a really good field this week headlined by two men who starred in the BMW PGA Championship last week in Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm. The Open champion Shane Lowry is also in the field as is the man who won at Wentworth last week in Danny Willett. English stars Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood also add a real star quality to the field.
Scottish Open winner Bernd Wiesberger, twice winner of this tournament Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Matt Wallace are some of the other leading lights in the field while players such as Alex Noren, Martin Kaymer, Ross Fisher and Graeme McDowell will look to bring out the form of old. Lucas Bjerregaard will attempt to emulate Hatton and successfully defend the title.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is once again the favourite this week. At 6/1 he is probably of lesser value than he was last week given the slight lottery nature of this tournament. Each course can play much different on all three days so although there is no doubt that McIlroy can win this there is absolutely no way I could even consider getting involved at 6/1, especially when we saw that not all is well with his game last week despite his end finish.
I’m in no rush to back anyone at 15/2 either but if I was to take someone at this price I would probably do so for Jon Rahm. We have seen in Ireland what he can do to these short links courses and although he was found wanting in the back nine on Sunday last week, he’s clearly in good form arriving here. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Rahm wins this at a canter, he has the game to, but there are too many variables in play for me to have a bet at this price.
Justin Rose hovered in contention last week but a double bogey six holes from home ended his charge but I think I would rather have backed him there than here. I’ve never really felt links golf suits Rose’s game. His strengths aren’t really suited to it and there are a lot of players whose game is suited to this test that offers better value. At 14/1 Rose isn’t for me this week I have to say.
Two men sit at 18/1. They are Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry. The Open champion finished last week well and was third here in 2013 but his results haven’t really been great for someone who showed in July just how he can play on links tracks. He isn’t for me. Fleetwood has four top five finishes in his last eight runnings in this tournament but he looked like a man absolutely cooked in his interviews last week and I’m reluctant to get involved in him until he looks a little more fresh.
Main Bets
If you took overall form in 2019 into account you probably couldn’t really go near Tyrrell Hatton but sometimes you have to respect course or tournament form and I think that is the case this week, especially with it being a different style of golf. There is clearly something he likes about this tournament where his form for the last three years has been 1-1-2 and that would have been 1-1-1 but for a terrible back nine on the final day when he seemingly had another win in the bag. As I eluded to his form in 2019 has been patchy at best but you get him on a links course and he is a different beast. Since his 2017 win in this his form on links course including that win is 1-6-9-51-2-21-MC-14-6. That is six top 15 finishes in nine outings. He’ll do for me as a main bet.
I’ve had Robert MacIntyre on my shortlist for this tournament ever since he came second in the British Masters where he performed well on a links track. He has shown that was no fluke with is obviously a positive. He followed up that week at Hillside with another second placed finish to Bernd Wiesberger in the Made in Denmark and then at Portrush he finished T6 on his major debut before coming runner up to Paul Casey in Germany recently. Links golf suits McIntyre and he’s from Scotland so I would be surprised if any of these courses are new to him. Some of this field might get a bit hacked off in the colder conditions when rounds last six hours and upwards but you would think MacIntyre will relish that so he’s a leading fancy here.
Outsiders
I’ll throw darts at four at big prices. Andrea Pavan has decent links form and comes in here in good nick. He was T4 in the Scottish Open earlier this year and T14 in it last year. He finished fifth in this tournament 12 months ago so there is something about the Scottish links that brings out the best in his game. Prior to last week, where he actually got himself into contention after day one but was on the wrong side of the draw. Prior to that he was T3, T16 and T12 in the Czech Masters, Scandinavian Invitation and European Masters. He’s in good nick, he’s a GIR machine and should go well.
It seems that every year when this tournament comes around Joakim Lagergren comes up on my shortlist and he has done so again. He has a decent record around here and obviously likes the test at hand. Last year was a non-event for him in this but prior to that his form in this tournament was 4-4-12. He arrives here in much better form than he was last year as well and I get the impression he’s been itching to get back on links terrain where he often thrives. Although it wasn’t on links terrain, his only European Tour win came in the Sicilian Open which is exposed and brings the elements into play. He’s also won on the Challenge Tour in Northern Ireland too. His form since The Open is T10-MC-T20-T7-T24. That’ll do me at 100/1.
Richie Ramsay is another player who is often on my radar when this tournament comes around and he flew up into my shortlist with a really good spin round Wentworth last week where he finished sixth. He carried a big crowd round with him and Patrick Reed on the final day and still thrived which was very much a positive and when you add into that he was fifth in the British Masters and T12 at the Made in Denmark these conditions should suit him. He was second to Oliver Wilson here in 2014 and fourth in 2009 and he has lots of other links form. At 125/1 he’s an obvious pick for a dart.
I’ll also take a chance with Robert Rock who has shown enough on links tracks. He was fourth in Ireland earlier in the year and his last two spins here have been T4 and T20 with the latter being despite a starting 76 at Carnoustie where the tricky last two holes cost him three strokes. Pop them back on and he would have finished in the top five once again so there is enough to like about Rock here. The Englishman has one of the best short games on the circuit and if his long game can stand up to the test he’ll have every chance here.
Tips
Back T.Hatton to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back R.MacIntyre to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
PLACED – Back J.Lagergren to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Ramsay to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Pavan to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back R.Rock to win Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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