There is one last tournament on the European Tour before Christmas, although it takes place down under, as the Australian PGA Championship rounds off what has been a stellar 2019 on the golfing landscape.
Cameron Smith has won this tournament for the past two seasons and he is in the field looking to complete a third win in a row. One or two big names have chosen to oppose him in the hunt for a pre-Christmas title.
Recent Winners
2018 – Cameron Smith
2017 – Cameron Smith
2016 – Harold Varner III
2015 – Nathan Holman
2014 – Greg Chalmers
2013 – Adam Scott
The Course
We are at the RACV Royal Pines Resort on the Gold Coast once again this week. The players are becoming accustomed to this par 72 track which measures 7,345 yards. The course can be tough when the wind blows across it but thankfully for those with tee times the breeze is expected to be quite moderate so we are likely to be in for a low scoring tournament.
Anyone who watched the Presidents Cup last week will have seen the firm and fast conditions down in Australia with the significantly extreme weather in that part of the world so a good touch into and on and around the greens is going to be needed here. One or two power merchants are on the roll of honour but given the firmness of the track I would suggest good drivers of the golf ball are where we should be focusing our attention this week.
The Field
The leading Australian pair of Adam Scott and Cameron Smith headline a pretty ordinary field by European Tour standards this week but there are a few other names who have been seen at the business end of tournaments at this level. Ryan Fox and Jason Scrivener would be chief among them while Calum Hill is rapidly emerging onto the scene.
We also have a couple of Americans in the field this week in Cameron Champ and the former Open champion Stewart Cink with veterans Marcus Fraser and Rod Pamplling joined by the likes of Min Woo Lee, Lucas Herbert and Wade Omsby. Despite the long distance quite a few of the lower ranked players on the European Tour have made the trip down under too.
Market Leaders
Adam Scott begins the tournament as a 5/1 poke to get his hands on the title once again but I have a few concerns even allowing for the fact that he is the standout man in the field. Firstly I would want to be on a better putter at a short price, a price which does nothing really to inspire me into a bet and then finally the other concern is the amount he has left in the tank after what turned into a gruelling and emotional Presidents Cup last week. Regular readers will know I’m no 5/1 backer but I’m certainly not with the questions around this one.
Cameron Smith is 6/1 to keep hold of the title at the end of the week. Two of the concerns I have over Scott apply to Smith too. Even allowing for his wonderful recent record on this course he looks plenty short enough and would need to win to get any sort of return out of proceedings. He also had an emotional week at the Presidents Cup and it will be so hard to go from an event like that into a relatively low key one like this without some sort of come down. He’s not for me.
Jason Scrivener hasn’t won this tournament yet but he has put up a number of acceptable efforts so the 12/1 on him is probably justified, even though I’m in no rush to take that up either. Scrivener is a good driver of the golf ball and you would think his name will be on this trophy eventually but when it is I hope he is a slightly better price than he is now. I respect him but can’t back him at this price so he isn’t for me.
Cameron Champ would have to be considered a leading contender if he has his best PGA Tour form with him although I suspect that his strengths will be negated around here which isn’t ideal. If we knew for sure his best game was with him there would be a case for getting involved at 16/1 given the question marks I have about the favourites. There is enough reason to think there isn’t a huge amount of justification to backing him here though. It is 25/1 bar.
Main Bets
Calum Hill was my main bet in Mauritius two weeks ago and after 54 holes we were getting very excited as he was holding a share of the lead. Unfortunately he trebled the first hole of the final round and that was that but I’m convinced he is a winner in waiting so it makes sense to give him another go on yet another track that should suit his game perfectly. If anything this one might suit him even more. We know he can get into contention in stronger fields than this one so if he has learnt what he needed to in defeat in Mauritius I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes up for it with the win this weekend to emulate his Scottish compatriot David Law, who won the Vic Open down under early in the year.
The skill set of Stewart Cink should be perfectly suited to this test. We’ve seen him adopt links golf to good effect in the past and he’ll have the chance to showcase those talents here in these conditions. Cink might not be of the level needed in most of the PGA Tour events where if you don’t bang it 300 yards there’s no point in turning up but he is perfectly suited to the examination paper in front of him here. Even these days when those PGA Tour events come around that he can be competitive, when he gets in the mix he tends to stay there. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a repeat of that here.
Outsiders
I’ll plough on with a couple of outsiders this week with the first of those being Nicolai Hojgaard, the man who came to prominence when he was second behind Bernd Wiesberger at the Made in Denmark earlier in the year and if he needed any inspiration whatsoever moving forward he surely got it when he watched his brother bolt up in Mauritius a couple of weeks ago. There is nothing quite like an inspired golfer and you tend to find that extra pep in the step yields good results. At 80/1 I’ll pay to see how well he goes.
I took Clement Sordet in Mauritius a couple of weeks ago and I’ll give him another chance this week. He went well in Australia last season when he posted a top 10 at the Vic Open and qualified for the match play stage of the Perth Super 6 so there is something about this part of the world that seems to agree with him. Things didn’t go to plan in Mauritius a couple of weeks ago but he is 150/1 here and that just feels a little big in a competitive but open field behind the main two.
Tips
Back C.Hill to win Australian PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back S.Cink to win Australian PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back N.Hojgaard to win Australian PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back C.Sordet to win Australian PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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