It is the penultimate week of the PGA Tour season this week as the 70 remaining men in the FedEx Cup challenge head to one of the most famous venues for European golf – Medinah Country Club, the scene of the ‘Miracle’ in the Ryder Cup in 2012 for the BMW Championship.
Things are getting pretty serious in the FedEx Cup now. 70 men tee it up this week but only 30 will head to East Lake next week and those who do go there will want to be as high up as possible for the chance to win the big bounty. Keegan Bradley defends the title this week, on a different track to the one he won on.
Recent Winners
2018 – Keegan Bradley
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Zach Johnson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Justin Rose
2010 – Dustin Johnson
2009 – Tiger Woods
The Course
The No3 course at Medinah Country Club is the venue this week, just as it was in the Ryder Cup seven years ago. The key feature around here is you have to give it a wallop off the tee. The course is a par 72 which stretches out to a pretty crazy 7,613 yards and it is soft after a drenching earlier in the week. There are two par 5s which measure over 600 yards and a pretty ridiculous 245 yard par 3. If you’re a short hitter you better hope you’re safely in the top 30 to get in next week.
Driving distance and greens in regulation are probably the two big things this week. The greens are average sized so getting putts to the hole on them shouldn’t be much of an issue but getting to the dancefloors in the right number is more of a problem. Very much focus on those towards the head of the driving distance statistic here.
The Field
70 men have qualified for this tournament but ironically in the week that slow play has been discussed at length Kevin Na has pulled out so a field of 69 will go to post for the BMW Championship. They include the defending champion Keegan Bradley as well as the winner last week in Patrick Reed, and the current FedEx Cup holder Justin Rose. Tiger Woods is looking to get back in the top 30 to allow him to defend at East Lake next week.
Brooks Koepka sits at number one in the current FedEx standings and if he keeps that spot after this week he will begin the Tour Championship with a two shot lead on everyone else in the field and as many as 10 shots on some. Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are just some of the bombers looking to set themselves up for next week by going well here.
Market Leaders
Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy are the 8/1 joint favourites to win the tournament this week. McIlroy may well be pretty popular after his exploits here in 2012 when he saw off Keegan Bradley in the singles despite pitching up a couple of minutes before his tee time. This course should bring out the strengths in both he and Koepka but there isn’t a lot of margin in the price and they are just too skinny in this short of company in my eyes.
Jon Rahm is an 11/1 third favourite and once again his length should fit the course nicely but twice he’s had every chance to win decent events stateside in the last few months only to blow up in the weight of expectation in the final round. He could lead this lot a merry dance with his length but I’m not interested in him at such a price given his obvious concerns mentality and temperament wise.
Justin Thomas is a 14/1 shot to win here and he is trending in the right direction after missing the middle part of the campaign with his injury. He is rarely outside the top 20 these days but at the same time he is rarely threatening to win too. It must be said that while there are 69 in this field there are only so many who can win. Thomas is one of them but his price is only fair.
You can get 15/1 on Dustin Johnson to win this tournament. If he had produced something stronger over the weekend last week having taken the halfway lead I would have been all over him here, but the fact he faded, and the tame way in which he did so suggests that his game still isn’t in great shape and I don’t think anyone is going to win here without being at their best. He’s an easy enough swerve.
Main Bets
In the hope that the very leading players are going to save some juice for next week I’m going to look a little further down the market for my bets here. Adam Scott was my bet last week and he landed a place and given that this track plays to many of his strengths as well it makes sense to stick with him. We often see that players who start these play-off events well keep their form up. Scott is long enough off the tee to be a factor this week and is good into the greens. With nobody really having an advantage of knowledge of the greens the Australian won’t be too disadvantaged on them. He should go well here.
Louis Oosthuizen doesn’t always put successive weeks together but at 40/1 I’m going to pay to see how he goes here because his recent numbers are very strong. He has been in the top 20 in his last three outings including at Liberty National last week where he was T6 ranking third in GIR, seventh in proximity and first in scrambling. He is long enough to tame this beast so those statistics are very appealing heading into this week. You get the impression someone with a bit of class is going to win round here. Louis has that in spades.
Outsiders
I’ve picked out three long hitters who could give us a run for our money at big prices. Byeong-Hun An probably should have won the Wyndham Championship a couple of weeks ago but JT Poston was like a train in that final round. Nevertheless he has another leading chance here. We know he is playing well from that run a couple of weeks ago and he is long enough to get by on this course. When you think that length is going to reduce the potential winners significantly this week the 70/1 on An looks a big price in a field which might not be much more than 30 runners in effect. I’ll pay to see how he gets on.
Harold Varner III played himself into this week by virtue of finishing third at Liberty National last week and that caught my eye. He is just inside the top 30 now so he needs a decent week to go to Atlanta next week but he is long off the tee and decent enough into the greens which suggests he should be able to follow up last week with a good effort here. At a three figure price we’ll pay to see how he goes here.
Cameron Champ has already won this season and while he’s done little to nothing since he landed the Sanderson Farms Championship crown he did offer signs of a return to form last week when he was just outside the top 20 at Liberty National. Champ leads the Tour in driving distance and is in the top 20 in greens in regulation and those statistics put him right in the mix. With nobody having an advantage on the greens his putting problems might not be such a bad thing here. Once again with length sorting out half of this field Champ looks a big price around the 200/1 mark.
Tips
Back A.Scott to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back H.Varner III to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Champ to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back L.Oosthuizen to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back B-H.An to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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