One of the better days of the European Tour season is the opening day of the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth and with the course in pristine autumn condition, and a seriously good field to entertain us, everything is set up for a great day of golf on Thursday.
This is a Rolex Series event which means there is a stack of cash on offer this week so the entire 132 man field will be looking for a fast start to set themselves up for a decent cheque and potentially much more besides come the end of the week.
First Round Leader
Whenever these sorts of tournaments come around the first thing we do is take a look at the first round leader market. Whenever we do that it is key to know the format of the opening day and at Wentworth things resemble The Open where the field all go off the first tee with the first tee time at 07.00 BST through to the last at 14.30 BST. With that in mind it is vital to know if there will be any change in the weather throughout the day and a quick look at the forecast suggests there won’t be. We did get a clue though from the curator who suggested that the course will be softer early on as the dew remains on the track for a while. That could lead to the early starters going well.
As a result of that I’m going to take a couple of early starters with the first of those being Scott Jamieson who is actually out in the first group off the tee. He has started a few tournaments well this year including the KLM Open last week when he fired a 68 to start. Two years ago he kicked off the tournament with a 67 here and he has also shot 68 in the opening round. In conditions to suit one of those would put him in the mix.
Erik van Rooyen is another who is no stranger to pinging the lids this season. He has opened up his last three tournaments with rounds of 65 and two events prior to that he start the Scottish Open with a 64 so when it comes to getting off to good starts there aren’t many better than the South African. He gets his campaign underway at 08.20 BST which could be the perfect tee time as the dew will start to dissipate and the better temperatures will make the ball flight more predictable. He’s now a tournament winner and the confidence he’ll get from that will serve him well here. He’s my main bet for first round leader.
Although he isn’t out in the morning, I can’t avoid a little dabble on Kiradech Aphibarnrat. He has been in the mix after 18 holes in each of the last three runnings of this tournament. He was T8 after the first round in 2016, T2 in 2017 and T8 last year. He clearly loves playing at Wentworth and in the UK as I intimated in my outright preview. He’s probably not on the right side of the draw going out at 13.20 BST but strange things happen in sport and at 90/1 I’ll pay to see if his first round run continues.
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Thursday 3 Balls
The entire field go out in three balls for the opening 18 holes with the groups all teeing off the first hole at 10 or 15 minute intervals and as this is a Rolex Series event the majority of the three balls going out onto the course have been priced up. Given the quality of the field on show this week there are some decent groups to be witnessed too.
The pick of the groups is the 08.55 BST three ball of Rory McIlroy and the last two winners of The Open in the defending champion Francesco Molinari and Shane Lowry while 10 minutes later than that the English trio of Eddie Pepperell, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Wallace will have a large gallery accompanying them round. The big afternoon three ball sees the former Masters winner Patrick Reed out along with Justin Rose and Jon Rahm at 12.45 BST while Tony Finau, Paul Casey and Ian Poulter will be another popular group at 12.55 BST. Billy Horschel, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton is another decent group out at 12.35 BST.I like bets in three groups.
Padraig Harrington/Mike Lorenzo-Vera/Viktor Hovland
Match tees off at 08.35 BST
The first group that gets my attention comes in the morning session where the Ryder Cup captain Padraig Harrington goes out alongside Mike Lorenzo-Vera and Viktor Hovland, the latter of whom could easily be on his team this time next year.
I think this is a match between Lorenzo-Vera and Hovland. I say that because Harrington has just named Robert Karlsson as his vice-captain for the Ryder Cup so he is already putting his mind into that and we’ve seen it regularly how players struggle with their own game when sorting out their team for the big event so I suspect Harrington could struggle here. Hovland has a wonderful record on the PGA Tour but it is generally in the latter stages of events where his best golf comes out and with this being his first official spin in Europe I wouldn’t be surprised if he is slow out of the blocks. Lorenzo-Vera heads here in excellent form. He has only been outside the top 20 once in his last seven regular European Tour events and that was a T28 which wasn’t too bad. In that time he has opened up with a 63, 65, 67 and a pair of 68s and at 7/4 I’ll take him to shoot the lowest score here.
Billy Horschel/Tyrrell Hatton/Matthew Fitzpatrick
Match tees off at 12.35 BST
One of the interesting groups out in the afternoon is the one between the PGA Tour star Billy Horschel and the European Tour stars Tyrrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick in a star quality three ball.
It will be interesting to see how Horschel goes here. On the face of it he should be nicely suited to this course and an event of this kind but he hasn’t played away from America too often so you would think there will be an adjustment period. That makes me think Fitzpatrick is the man to be on here. He has done everything but win this season. He was second in Hong Kong, lost a play-off in the BMW International Open and was second again in the Scandinavian Invitation. In the latter event he began with a 64 and is gradually getting better all the time at Wentworth. Hatton is in the middle of a very quiet year by his high standards so even as a favourite it is Fitzpatrick that I like in this group.
Andrew Johnston/Adrian Otaegui/George Coetzee
Match tees off at 13.50 BST
One of the last groups out onto the golf course is the one featuring the popular Englishman Andrew Johnston. He goes out alongside the classy Spaniard Adrian Otaegui and George Coetzee in what is an underrated group who probably deserve a better tee time than they’ve got.
I’m a big fan of Otaegui but his game seems to have gone missing recently. He has only made two of his last 12 cuts and there aren’t many rounds in the 60s in those efforts either so he is easy to pass over. Coetzee is going along nicely but I followed him closely last week as I was on him outright and he just can’t seem to hole momentum building or preserving putts and that is a concern for me. Johnston should love this week. We know all about his issues and thankfully they look to be behind him. He’ll feel so much love here and his tee to green prowess should serve him well. He’s my pick in this group.
Tips
Back S.Jamieson First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back M.Lorenzo-Vera to beat P.Harrington & V.Hovland for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Bet365
Back E.Van Rooyen First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back K.Aphibarnrat First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Johnston to beat A.Otaegui & G.Coetzee for a 3/10 stake at 2.40 with Betfair
Back them here:
Back M.Fitzpatrick to beat T.Hatton & B.Horschel for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with William Hill
Back him here:
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