The biggest tournament of the European Tour’s Desert Swing takes place this week when plenty of decent players head to Dubai for the Dubai Desert Classic, an event which often gives us an early indication of who could be competitive at Augusta later in the year.
Haotong Li ended the run of winners of this event to go on and win The Masters a few months later but he is here to defend his title and the Chinese star will be looking for another big week. He’ll need it though because this field isn’t too shabby despite a big event in the States.
Recent Winners
2018 – Haotong Li
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Stephen Gallacher
2013 – Stephen Gallacher
2012 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
2010 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
2009 – Rory McIlroy
The Course
It is once again the Emirates Golf Course which is the venue for the tournament this week. Aside from a couple of years when the course was renovated, this has been the host venue throughout the history of the competition, so the regulars in the field will know what to expect.
In total the course is a par 72 which stretches to 7,328 yards but in the dry air the ball flies a little further and so it doesn’t play to that full yardage. The course is often firm too so it is no surprise to see the event turn into a low scoring one. Straight hitters tend to get the job done around here, especially those who are accurate into the greens. The wind can sometimes come into play on this exposed track so keep that in the mind when making your picks.
The Field
Given that there is a decent PGA Tour event this week we don’t have the number of top class Americans here that we had in Abu Dhabi but Bryson DeChambeau tees it up. He will look to outgun some of the best in Europe including Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson and Matthew Fitzpatrick.
Louis Oosthuizen brings some top drawer international class to proceedings alongside the defending champion Haotong Li while Ryder Cup stars Ian Poulter, Thorbjorn Olesen and Tyrrell Hatton will be looking for big weeks. The Abu Dhabi champion Shane Lowry looks for successive wins in the desert while Rafa Cabrera Bello, Thomas Pieters and Matt Wallace could all be dangerous.
Market Leaders
It is the PGA Tour star Bryson DeChambeau that is the 10/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. He generally contends in every tournament he tees it up in these days but whether he is quite the runner he is made out to be in the market against seasoned campaigners around here I’m not so sure. I’m not saying the American can’t win but many others appeal more at much better prices.
There are a trio of players at 14/1 heading into the week. Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia and Louis Oosthuizen are the men in question and there is no reason to oppose any of them. Oosthuizen was bang in contention at halfway last week but surprisingly faded tamely which would be a concern. Fleetwood and Garcia are threats every time they tee it up at this level.
Henrik Stenson has a wonderful record in the other Dubai tournament at the end of the year so it stands to reason that he should be competitive in this one. He is 16/1 but I’d like to see him right in the business end of an event again before I take skinny prices over him. I just feel he hasn’t quite been there since that injury he had last year.
Tyrrell Hatton probably should have a better record in the desert than he has with his tee to green game. He is 22/1 to put that right this week and I wouldn’t necessarily put anyone off that but I do wonder if he is in the sort of form to come through in this company. Usually when Hatton is playing well he is always in the mix and stands out but that isn’t really the case at the minute. It is 25/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week. Nobody was better from tee to green than Joost Luiten last week and the longer the tournament went on the warmer his putter. If the short stick continues to improve, and to be fair it is going to with the more events Luiten plays after his injury, then the Dutchman is entitled to be right in the mix again here. Usually when a player has a lengthy enforced break he uses it to take stock of things and comes back eager to deliver the goods and make up for the time away. I’m expecting big things from Luiten here.
Tom Lewis is forging a decent little record in the desert and so he needs to be backed this week having got back into the winners’ circle again last year. He was seventh in the season ending event in Dubai in November and back in the top 10 once again last week. Lewis has the game for the desert in that he gets it out there and then dials in a bunch of irons and holes a load of putts. You don’t have to stretch the imagination too much to see him in the mix this week.
Outsiders
I took Dean Burmester in the Dubai Tour Championship at the end of the previous campaign and he delivered a place in a real high class field so in this slightly lesser field he needs to be backed again at a shade under three figures. His game is also suited to the desert for much the same reason as Lewis’ is. He has top 10s in Abu Dhabi, Portugal and the other Dubai event and was just outside the top 20 on debut here last year. I expect him to improve on that this week and be right in the mix.
I took a leap of faith with Martin Kaymer on a course that he loves last week and I’m going to do the same with Stephen Gallacher here this week. The Scot has won twice around this course and three other top four finishes and another in the top 10. Admittedly he has no form whatsoever to count on but we’ve seen time and again in the past that a return to a favourite jaunt brings the form back. It might not but at 150/1 we can pay to find out.
Tips
Back J.Luiten to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back T.Lewis to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back D.Burmester to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Gallacher to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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