The first really big PGA Tour event of 2019 takes place this week when many of the leading players in America head to San Diego to compete in the Farmers Insurance Open, an event made special by the iconic tracks it is played on.
Jason Day enjoyed himself here last year when he saw off Alex Noren on an amazing final day and he is back to attempt to defend the title but there are a number of two level players looking to oust him as the champion.
Recent Winners
2018 – Jason Day
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bubba Watson
2010 – Ben Crane
2009 – Nick Watney
The Courses
One of the reasons why this tournament is so good is the two tracks it is played over at Torrey Pines. The field will play a round on the North Course and the South Course over the first two days with the second half of the tournament being played on the iconic South track.
The South Course is much the tougher of the two. It is actually a brute of a course at a par 72 measuring 7.698 yards. If there is any rain in the area it can play the full length which makes it very tough. It also means that in order to be in a position to pounce over the weekend players must take advantage of the 7,256 yard North Course.
Both tracks have pretty dense rough so you need to be both long and accurate off the tee and you could do with being pretty solid into the greens too. The South Course has hosted a US Open and you don’t get handed that tournament if you don’t test every part of a golf game.
The Field
Rory McIlroy makes his debut in the tournament this week but it will be Tiger Woods who gets much of the attention as you would expect. Former winner Jon Rahm and current champion Jason Day provide a real star quality to the field alongside Justin Rose, while the Tournament of Champions winner Xander Schauffele will be out to impress here.
Masters champion Patrick Reed brings a major winning dimension to the field while class acts Marc Leishman, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth all tee it up in what should be a fantastic week of golf. Alex Noren is another leading light in the field.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm is a 10/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. You would have to say he has the perfect game for this event with his long driving and good ability throughout the golf bag. The only question to ask yourself is whether 10/1 is an attractive enough price in this company. If it is he could well be your man but I feel a little uneasy about it I have to admit so he isn’t for me.
Justin Rose and Tiger Woods are both 15/1 to win the tournament. This should be a good tournament for Rose but I’m reluctant to get too involved in him while he gets used to the new bats. Tiger has won around here before and should certainly not be ruled out but any value in him disappeared at the Tour Championship if not before then.
Jason Day and Rory McIlroy are the 16/1 shots in the field. I’m not a backer of defending champions so even though I was on Day when he won around here last year he isn’t for me this time around. McIlroy isn’t playing well enough in my eyes but the fact he’s a debutant doesn’t really make him appeal much. I’ll look elsewhere from this pair.
Marc Leishman has absolutely no weaknesses and he has twice been pipped at the post in this tournament. At 20/1 with the form he has been in recently he is going to be very popular for many. If I was to voice a concern it would be the amount of golf he’s played over the last couple of months or so but he is very much the form man. He isn’t quite for me though. It is 22/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’m going to be a Xander Schauffele man a lot this year. I’m a huge fan of the man and even more so after he won for me in the HSBC Champions towards the end of 2018. He has an ideal game for Torrey Pines and being local and living in the area he should know every inch of the place. In fairness he has a poor record around here but that can’t last forever. He’s too good for that. Hopefully he is inspired by playing alongside Woods this week and if he is he can run very hot here.
This is a ball striking paradise and you will go a long way to find anyone who strikes it better than Keegan Bradley. Admittedly he takes way too long to actually strike it but when the trigger finally gets pulled ball and target connect quite often. He has a very good record around here. While he has putting woes still, the South Course is such a course that you can gain shots with the long game. He does that every well so Bradley is a must bet here.
Outsiders
Regular readers will know that when a ball striker is required I dial up a punt on Kyle Stanley and I’m not missing my first chance of 2019 to do just that here. Stanley is a former runner up around here but surely has the game to be the top dog on this track. He is relentless from tee to green so as long as the putter plays the game it is hard to see him being too far away from proceedings when the cheques are dished out.
Pat Perez comes into the tournament with a bit of an injury cloud hanging over him but he wouldn’t be 125/1 with his record around here if he didn’t so I’ll pay to see if he is over the thumb issue that saw him pull out last week. If he is then there is no reason why he can’t get himself in contention. He was in good form at the end of 2018 and is sneaking up on the best on the PGA Tour with his record over the last year or two. Injured or not he’s overpriced so I’ll back him here.
Nobody has driven the ball better than Brendan Steele this season and while his record around here is ok if not anything special, he may never have arrived here driving it as well as he is right now so that could very well stand up for something. We might need to close our eyes when he has the putter in hand but given how well he’s striking the ball I feel obliged to get involved in him at 150/1 despite his modest record around here.
Tips
Back X.Schauffele to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back K.Bradley to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back K.Stanley to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back P.Perez to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back B.Steele to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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