The European Tour stages its fifth Rolex Series event of the season this week when many of the stars of the game head to Rome for the Italian Open, an event steeped in history and one which is now going to have a significant impact on the campaign.
Thorbjorn Olesen won this tournament last year but he is not around to defend his title for reasons that have been made public in recent months. A really good line up has been assembled looking to claim the victory in his absence though.
Recent Winners
2018 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Francesco Molinari
2015 – Rikard Karlberg
2014 – Hennie Otto
2013 – Julien Quesne
2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
2011 – Robert Rock
2010 – Fredrik Andersson Hed
2009 – Daniel Vancsik
The Course
This is one of those tournaments which often rotates from track to track and it has moved again this year. We are back at the Olgiata Golf Club for the first time since 2002, a course which is a par 71 but a bit of a monster given that it measures 7,523 yards and could play every one of those at this time of year.
All the pictures and social media posts we’ve seen of the course suggests that it is extremely treelined and some journalists have likened the place to the West Course at Wentworth, which staged the BMW PGA Championship three weeks ago. That would suggest strong drivers and a good short game are the keys to success and if you look at recent winners that is very much shown on the roll of honour. You don’t find many wayward Italian drivers and their courses tend to play the same so that is the line I’m taking in here.
The Field
The European Tour has actually benefitted from the change in schedule of the PGA Tour and as a result a number of leading Europeans are teeing it up here this week. Home hero Francesco Molinari heads the field while the current Open champion Shane Lowry is here as are PGA Tour stars Justin Rose and Paul Casey, who will be eyeing up a big success in Rome.
BMW PGA champion Danny Willett will be looking to replicate his success there this week while English duo Matt Fitzpatrick and Matt Wallace will be eyeing up a lucrative title. Leading Italian players such as Andrea Pavan, Guido Migliozzi and Edoardo Molinari will be looking to win in front of a home crowd in what should be a really top drawer competition.
Market Leaders
Paul Casey heads the betting at 10/1 this week. The Porsche European Open winner heads to Rome in decent enough form which included another top 15 finish at Wentworth a couple of weeks ago. He looks to have the game to tame this track and his finish to the PGA Tour season confirms that he is hitting the ball well. I’m just a little reluctant to get involved at a short price in a field this loaded.
Justin Rose is next in the betting at 12/1 and you would think that his tee-to-green strength is going to have him right in the mix. He will be a very popular pick this week I suspect although whether his putter is going to cooperate enough to get the job done would be a concern. It is only for that reason that I prefer others to him here.
Francesco Molinari is a 16/1 third favourite and there is not a box he doesn’t tick around here you would think, with the possible exception of length, and it is that which puts me off him. I’m absolutely dying to get on Molinari again and this price is more than good enough but even in familiar surroundings he isn’t for me on this sort of tee-to-green monster.
Shane Lowry has a very good record at Wentworth so if the corroboration between there and here is correct there is no reason why he shouldn’t go well at 18/1. Lowry did our golf followers a right turn at The Open and he has followed that up with two top 15 finishes on the European Tour where sluggish first rounds have given him no chance of winning. It is that which puts me off here but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a decent week. It is 22/1 bar.
Main Bets
It will be no surprise to many that my main fancy this week is Matt Fitzpatrick. I was on him this very week four years ago when he won at another treelined track in terms of Woburn in the British Masters and his form on such challenges since then has been very good. He has a decent record in this tournament and at Wentworth, both of which is encouraging and having been the bridesmaid on three occasions this season he’ll surely be itching to get over this line and continue his streak of winning in each of the last four campaigns. This track looks ideally suited to him. He is one of the best drivers on the Tour and has a short game to match. If his iron play is on it this week he should take a lot of stopping.
It has been hard to ignore the form of Christiaan Beziudenhout on tough tracks this season. He was fourth in India, arguably the toughest of the lot and merely a shorter version of this course, T14 in Morocco, another treelined offering and more recently he won at Valderrama by six shots where there is arguably no biggest test of a tee-to-green game on the European Tour and he was third behind Willett and Rahm at Wentworth. All that form is mighty encouraging as is his short game stats where he sits third in strokes gained around the green, eighth in scrambling and T14 for putts per GIR. We know his long game can survive the test so he should go close again this week.
Outsiders
Edoardo Molinari knows his way around this track because he has won here on the Challenge Tour back in the day. In fairness the course has changed a lot since then but it can never be underestimated what returning to a place with good memories does to a player. Molinari is able to go under the radar in his home tournament these days thanks to the success of his brother and Andrea Pavan among others. Molinari has his long game in good order so if he can find some form on the greens he should give us a good run for our money.
I was on Fabrizio Zanotti last week and he went very well but just not quite well enough to land a payout but I’m happy to get involved again this week. I highlighted that British Masters success for Fitzpatrick a few years ago and his closest challenger that week was Zanotti. The Paraguayan tends to deliver his best work when accuracy off the tee is needed. Zanotti ranks 18 in strokes gained off the tee and the same rank from tee-to-green too. Zanotti was ranked 10 off the tee last week, seventh in GIRs and third in strokes gained on approach. If his putter can hot up he’ll be right there.
One man who doesn’t need his putter to hot up too much more than it has done in recent times is Jamie Donaldson and he’s my final bet this week. The Welshman is showing signs of coming back into form this season and while there are still improvements to be made in his long game, he is showing signs of being competitive in that regard. On and around the greens he is alive and kicking. In saying that about his long game he is inside the top 30 in fairways hit this season and only just outside on strokes gained on approach. It will all come together at some point and he’ll take all the beating. He’s the sort of price that I’ll pay to see if that week is here.
Tips
PLACED – Back M.Fitzpatrick to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back C.Bezuidenhout to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
Back E.Molinari to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back F.Zanotti to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Donaldson to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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