The penultimate tournament of the European Tour season concludes on Sunday when a bunch of players go after the Nedbank Golf Challenge title and the monster first prize that comes with it over in Sun City in South Africa.
The leaderboard might not be as packed as we would like but there are still a number of players who will feel they can win the title. Everyone else will be wanting to go low and maximise their earnings for the week.
Round 3 Recap
It was a much more competitive third round but at the end of it we still have Xander Lombard out in front although his lead over Louis Oosthuizen and Thomas Detry is now down to one shot. Lombard sits on 11 under with the other two on 10 under. Oliver Wilson and Marcus Kinhult are eight under with nobody else within five shots of Lombard’s lead. Race to Dubai leader Bernd Wiesberger and defending champion Lee Westwood are among a hefty group on six under looking to take advantage if the final group have a mare.
Our good week on the three balls continued on Saturday as Detry comfortably outshot his playing partners to give us a winner at a very juicy price, the second successive day we have found a tasty priced three ball shot. Hopefully we can finish the tournament off with another one over the course of the Sunday play.
Sunday Betting
There is only the outright market and the various groups markets to go at in terms of a big field option on Sunday. I wanted to get involved in the outright market once Paul Waring capsized on Saturday but nobody is really close enough to the top three to interest me. The two on eight under will need help to win and anyone else obviously will. I’m tempted by Bernd Wiesberger. He came from a similar position back to win in Italy recently and there is certainly some juice in him at 33/1 but I’m not convinced this is a course you can chase on.
Hopefully I don’t regret not taking the Austrian but in truth there isn’t too much interest for me in the outright market. Apart from a bet on the three balls which involves the aforementioned Wiesberger, the final round is largely about gauging form for next week as far as I’m concerned.
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Sunday 3 Balls
The field go out in threes again for the final round and the last group out involve the same men it has done since the second round so that will be Zander Lombard, Louis Oosthuizen and Thomas Detry. They set off at 07.50 GMT while Lee Westwood, Marcus Kinhult and Oliver Wilson will go out 11 minutes earlier with an eye on the title and both eyes on a huge cheque.
Once again I’ve gone through the groups from start to finish in the hope of extracting a few bets from them but while I’m tempted with Detry in the final group, I’ve decided to go with just the one punt which comes in one of the later groups out onto the course.
JB Hansen/Bernd Wiesberger/Mikko Korhonen
Match tees off at 07.28 GMT
The third to last group out onto the golf course sees the Danish player JB Hansen out alongside the current Race to Dubai leader Bernd Wiesberger and the winner of the China Open earlier in the season in Mikko Korhonen.
If you look at the statistics you would be baffled to see how these three are all on six under par heading into the final round. Hansen in particular doesn’t come out anywhere on the two main statistics I’m looking for this week. To be fair there isn’t much between Wiesberger and Korhonen on the approach data but the Austrian has a massive advantage on both on the green and I think that will play out into a win for the Austrian in this group on Sunday. Sunday’s here are always tough so putting becomes a big thing. We know Wiesberger has the quality in his irons to be more than competitive here and if it comes out he should breeze past his playing partners. If it doesn’t he can still win narrowly.
Tips
WON – Back B.Wiesberger to beat JB.Hansen & M.Korhonen for a 4/10 stake at 2.40 with Bet365
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