The European Tour heads back to Spain this week for the Open de Espana and after a couple of weeks of high competition and stellar fields we resort to slightly lesser fare this time around. In saying that, the end of the season is in sight so every point is vital from here on in.
Jon Rahm won the title last year and he is back to look to retain his home crown and is the standout man in not the best field it must be said. He defends on a new course which brings many of the field into play.
Recent Winners
2018 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Andrew Johnston
2015 – James Morrison
2014 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
2013 – Raphael Jacquelin
2012 – Francesco Molinari
2011 – Thomas Aiken
2010 – Alvaro Quiros
2009 – Thomas Levet
2008 – Peter Lawrie
The Course
The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is the venue for the tournament this week. The course is largely unknown although it did hold some low scoring European Tour events back in the day. What we do know in terms of numerically is that the track is a par 71 which stretches out to 7,112 yards which isn’t particularly long by modern standards, especially when the course is some 2,500m above sea level.
The track is said to have small greens and is treelined but with the summer Europe has had there is not believed to be much in the way of rough. That said it is never a bad thing to be going into small greens from the fairway so I’m going to look for tee-to-green machines I think. I’d prefer good putters but I’m not too worried as we usually find poor putters contend on smaller greens and especially here where few in the field have seen the course competitively.
The Field
Aside from the big three Spaniards who have turned up to support their home event, this is not the best field in the world it has to be said. That trio of Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia and Rafa Cabrera Bello will be expected to dominate the tournament but there are plenty in the field who will be out to stop them having it all their own way.
Haotong Li is one of those players while Andrea Pavan heads to the Spanish capital in good form. Second tier Spanish players such as Adri Arnaus, Pablo Larrazabal and Nacho Elvira are also in the field and looking for a big week with Ross Fisher, Jorge Campillo and Alexander Bjork among a list of competitive players in the field.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm goes into the tournament as the insanely short 10/3 favourite to win it. There is no each way offering on that price. He’ll have to win to deliver any sort of pay out and while he is without doubt the best player in the field, I’m not convinced he is that much of a certainty that he should be backed at that price. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he does win but I’ve not got involved in such a price yet and I’m not going to start now.
Sergio Garcia comes next in the betting at 6/1. I would imagine he will be popular especially as you make a bit of beer money if you back him each way and he makes the frame but apart from landing the KLM Open recently he has done little of note for too long. Being at home though I guess he will be inspired and shouldn’t be ruled out but the price does nothing for me here I have to say.
Rafael Cabrera Bello will being his home open as a 12/1 shot to win it but I’ve noticed in recent times that his short game has regressed and it is stopping him from contending in many more tournaments than he has done. When I compare his price to the other two leading Spaniards I reckon he’s the worst value of the trio even though he’s twice and four times the price. Home players can never be ruled out but I’d be amazed if better value doesn’t exist.
Haotong Li hasn’t really shown a great deal in recent times so although he has the short game to really do the business here I’m not so sure I can get inspired by a 16/1 price. Although he is clearly the fourth best in the field he has only made the top 15 once in his last eight tournaments so you are taking a huge leap of faith that he finds his best if you take him.
Main Bet
I’ll oppose the big three this week and go with one main bet which comes in the form of Adri Arnaus who has done everything but win a tournament this year having come second three times over the course of the season. He had gone through a quiet patch around the time of the links events but I’m not going to read too much into that as I’ve said before, you either like that or you don’t.
Arnaus has a couple of top 10 finishes in his last few events though so there are signs that now we are back to traditional golf his form is going to come back to the fore. If tee to green specialists thrive on this track like they did when it was first used years ago, there aren’t many better in the field in that regard than the Spaniard. I’ll pay to see how he goes in home conditions.
Outsiders
I’ll throw a few darts at the bigger prices given that there are a number of unknowns this week. It might not be so unknown to Wade Ormsby however. He has played here in the Open de Madrid back in the day and posted back-to-back top 12 finishes in the process. I don’t think we even need to make comparison to the golfer he was then to the one he is now. It is chalk and cheese. He is a winner at this level, is excellent from tee-to-green and underrated around the greens and on it. He looks a big price to me at 66/1.
Jeunghun Wang burst onto the scene a couple of seasons ago but he’s gone quiet since then so I was interested to see him come in the top five in the Dunhill Links last week where he was one of the better putters in the field, which should bode well for him this week if it is a low scoring tournament as expected. There were one or two other signs that he was coming back to form prior to last week and if you take out the big three there isn’t a huge amount in this field so there is no reason why he can’t be competitive if he continues to build on last week.
Another man who is very strong from tee-to-green is Fabrizio Zanotti and I always like backing him on treelined courses so I’m happy to get involved in him at a big price. If he gets the short stick working he shouldn’t be far away and while that is his weakness nobody really has an advantage on him in terms of having played the course before. He could be competitive at a big price this week if he produces the long game we know he has.
I also can’t avoid backing Alejandro Canizares at a stupid price in his own conditions. He probably isn’t the player he was a couple of years ago but he wouldn’t be the first player to come back to life in home surroundings and he wouldn’t be the last. At his best Canizares is decent enough off the tee and extremely good into the greens and on them. If he can find a good week he’ll outrun his price.
Tips
PLACED – Back A.Arnaus to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Wang to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back F.Zanotti to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Canizares to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back W.Ormsby to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
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