It is the final regular event of the European Tour season this week as the roadshow heads to the sunshine for the Portugal Masters. For those who have not yet secured their tour card for next year this is their final chance to do so while the players outside the top 50 in the Race to Dubai have one last chance to make the Final Series.
Tom Lewis won the tournament last year and has gone on to use the confidence from that to secure a PGA Tour card and another bunch of players will be looking to follow in his footsteps on what will be a tense week for many.
Recent Winners
2018 – Tom Lewis
2017 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2016 – Padraig Harrington
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Alexander Levy
2013 – David Lynn
2012 – Shane Lowry
2011 – Tom Lewis
2010 – Richard Green
2009 – Lee Westwood
The Course
The Dom Pedro Victoria Course in Vilamoura remains the venue this week. The course is a par 71 which measures 7,146 yards which means it isn’t a long course by any means but it is one which probably suits the bigger hitters, or has done in the main over the last five years or so.
The fairways here are wide and the greens are huge so this generally tends to become a short game and putting test especially with the rough down in most places. We are going to see plenty of birdies and low scoring throughout even though the field might not be as strong as it might have been or has been in recent times. Form horses should go well here in the main.
The Field
You would have to say this isn’t a fantastic field but with a WGC next week and three heavy hitting Final Series events to come I guess we shouldn’t have expected it to be. Nevertheless someone will win and others will contend and the benefits that come with that will be shared out as usual. There is one headline act in the field though.
That is Matt Wallace, a man who will be looking to go into the Final Series with a win under his belt. Recent winners Tom Lewis, Padraig Harrington and Lucas Bjerregaard are also here while other former champions such as Andy Sullivan and Alex Levy also tee it up. Martin Kaymer and Eddie Pepperell are household names in the field while young guns like Adri Arnaus will fancy their chances as well.
Market Leaders
Matt Wallace will begin the week as the 10/1 favourite. If the world rankings are anything to go by he should waltz this tournament but he is always so intense that it is beginning to put me off, and I certainly want my money riding on the back of someone who could blow up at any moment at what is not an especially attractive price. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but he can do so at this price.
Martin Kaymer is an 18/1 second favourite to win the tournament this week. If he was at or close to his best then I might have a look at him given the weakness of the field but although he went well enough in Paris last week, there isn’t a huge amount of recent form to back that up and as a result he looks pretty short. I’m not convinced this is the best fit for him in terms of course set up either so he isn’t for me.
The former winner Lucas Bjerregaard is the next man in the betting at 20/1. There is a lot to like about the Dane although his price is probably only about right and nothing more. Nevertheless, he is a huge hitter of the ball and has a good short game so he has all the tools to go well here. I just wonder if his focus will be on the month ahead rather than this tournament though.
Tom Lewis has won this tournament on two occasions and he is 22/1 to win it for a third time. I’m not a fan of backing defending champions though so he isn’t for me but the two men at the same price – Eddie Pepperell and Adri Arnaus are of more interest. Pepperell might not be in the form to win this tournament but he has an excellent record here which can’t be forgotten. Arnaus might just be a trifle short of ideal. It is 25/1 bar.
Main Bets
I think this is a tournament where form could be rewarded and as well as that big hitting and a good short game will also be. JB Hansen is in wonderful form right now. He was fourth in the Open de Espana and then tied for 25th in the Italian Open when he was much higher up at halfway. He then chased home Nicolas Colsaerts in the Open de France last week too so the fact he has contended on different kinds of tracks if different conditions shows that he is legit in the form book. I see no reason at all why he won’t be involved at the deep end here.
Chris Paisley enjoyed a decent week in Paris last week and I fancy him to follow that up here because he has a terrific short game which is often what gets players in the mix in this tournament. Paisley has been quiet for far too long so it was a positive that he played well last week. Paisley was third in strokes gained on approach last week and second in scrambling. Those statistics should have him right in the mix here if they are repeated.
Outsiders
As ever I’ll throw some darts at bigger prices especially in an event like this where outsiders do go in from time to time. The first of those is Jeff Winther who is another who has a wonderful short game and isn’t too disadvantaged in the long game department either. Winther sits eighth on the European Tour in scrambling this season and that is going to be a big thing here. He’s also fifth in strokes gained putting so if the ease of test in his long game works he shouldn’t be far away.
Brandon Stone was going well in Paris last week after three rounds and although he got wiped out in the final round I’m happy enough to take him here. There is a real correlation between links players and wins in this tournament. The last three winners all have good pedigrees on links tracks and as a former winner of the Scottish Open, Stone does too. I probably wouldn’t have taken him had it not been for his first three rounds in Paris but they make me think he is overpriced at 100/1.
Robert Rock is another player who looks a big price. He was fourth in the Irish Open earlier in the year which again correlates with that links theory and he has decent finishes in both the Scottish links events over the course of his career. He is a player with an excellent short game when he is on it and the fact that he won’t be tested off the tee could see him go well this week. That fourth placed finish in Ireland was in a much better field than this so I’ll pay to see what he comes up with here.
Tips
Back JB.Hansen to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back J.Winther to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back C.Paisley to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Rock to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back B.Stone to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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Very unlucky with Brandon Stone, Kev. His antics on 16 were staggering. A fine example of pressure in professional sport.