The PGA Tour season finishes this week with the extremely lucrative Tour Championship the final event of the campaign as always. The leading 30 players in the FedEx Cup rankings head to Atlanta looking to land the $15 million first prize.
Tiger Woods rolled back the years to win this tournament last year but even despite winning The Masters, he has not made it back to defend the title, one which Justin Thomas is a huge favourite to win with the quirky changes to the event.
Recent Winners
2018 – Tiger Woods
2017 – Xander Schauffele
2016 – Rory McIlroy
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bill Haas
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Tiger Woods
The Course
We are back at East Lake Country Club where it all ends once again with a huge purse up for grabs. Unlike the first two tracks used in these play-off events, this one rewards pure ball striking and is a decent test of an all-round game. After the soggy nature of Medinah last week we are back to firmer and faster conditions in Georgia which brings with it the need to play from the short grass.
The course itself is a par 70 which can stretch to 7,362 yards although with the expected humidity this week there is a chance it won’t play quite that long. If you look at the list of winners we’re not after insane power here, more players who keep it in play and can execute a decent iron and putting game, which brings more of the 30 man field into play. This is one of the tougher courses to scramble on so it is imperative to find the greens.
The Field
Such is the nonsense way so much is placed on the two play-off events prior to this one, two of the four major winners from the year are not here with Shane Lowry and Tiger Woods failing to qualify despite winning arguably the two biggest tournaments of the season. US Open champion Gary Woodland and USPGA winner Brooks Koepka are both here however.
The likes of Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, last year’s FedEx champion Justin Rose and the winner from last week Justin Thomas all set a decent standard, while Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele and Adam Scott are among a list of names who will fancy their chances of winning despite their lowly starting position. Patrick Cantlay rates as a big danger after a successful campaign thus far.
Starting Leaderboard
The tournament is being played in a handicap style this week based on the positions of the 30 men in the current FedEx Cup standings. For the first time ever the winner of this tournament is guaranteed to be the FedEx Cup champion regardless of who shoots the lowest score on the 72 holes in play. The leaderboard will begin as follows:
Here's how the East Lake leaderboard will start next week:
-10 Thomas
-8 Cantlay
-7 Koepka
-6 Reed
-5 Rory
-4 Rahm Kuchar Xander Webb Ancer
-3 Woodland Finau Scott DJ Hideki
-2 Casey Rose Sneds Fowler Kisner
-1 Leishman Fleetwood Conners Im Reavie
E Bryson Louis CH3 Glover Kokrak— Will Gray (@WillGrayGC) August 18, 2019
Market Leaders
Given that he has a two shot lead heading into the week it stands to reason that last week’s winner Justin Thomas is the favourite to win the tournament. He is 12/5 to convert his two shot lead into overall glory but he is in the position where at some point he could get caught between defence and attack and it will be interesting to see how soon that comes along. Thomas should win this week but he’s priced accordingly.
Patrick Cantlay is the closest challenger to Thomas both on the starting leaderboard and the betting market. He is the second favourite at 9/2 to win the competition and given the ball striking clinics he has put on all season you would have to say he has every chance of chasing Thomas down. Whether he is up to winning a tournament of this magnitude remains to be seen however.
Brooks Koepka will begin three back of Justin Thomas and is 5/1 to convert that position into FedEx Cup glory but you wonder if his chances went last week when he failed to hold on to number one spot coming into this week. I say that because his record at East Lake is not the best and that has to be a concern. He’s more than good enough to make up the gap but bringing his past record into play he’s pretty short to do so.
Rory McIlroy will begin the week five shots behind Justin Thomas and he is 8/1 to dispose him at the top of the standings and win the FedEx Cup. I fancy this situation might suit Rory as he knows he has to chase from the get go and he can be clear in his mind about his approach. Whether he is playing well enough to catch Thomas and keep off those behind him is another matter though.
FedEx Cup Betting
There are so many variables in play this week but regardless of starting scoring and things like that one thing that stays true is you need a pure ball striker to go well here and Webb Simpson fits that bill. He was fourth here last year and I think he has played much better overall in the last 12 months than he did in the year building up to last year.
Simpson starts the week on four under so it isn’t as though he is miles down the field. He is effectively within three shots of everyone apart from the leading two and if they get caught not knowing whether to stick or twist it won’t take a lot for Simpson to be in the mix come Sunday. The case for those above him is obvious but at 30/1 I think there’s enough juice in the way Simpson fits this course for that to be good value for an each way punt.
72 Hole Betting
Two men have decent records and form at the minute and I’ll take them both in the 72 hole betting. I don’t think Paul Casey will necessarily push the boat out to get into the FedEx Cup picture. He has some huge European Tour events to come so he isn’t going to be on rice and beans anytime soon. Casey has four top fives on this course and if he truly cared about winning the FedEx Cup he wouldn’t have sat out the first play-off event. That says to me he is going to play this week and see what he shoots and what comes from it will come. That makes him a danger on the level start at 25/1.
Brandt Snedeker is a former winner of the FedEx Cup so he doesn’t really need to push too hard to look to win it again. I’m not saying he is no chance at two under par but I think realistically he’ll know he’s playing for cash this week. He is in decent form. He was tied sixth at Liberty National and tied fifth at Medinah. Both those courses favoured the longer hitters of which he isn’t one. This one doesn’t. This one is all about the ball striking which is where he comes into his own. His short game is in good order so if the lack of power needed off the tee brings his long game into good shape he can trouble the 72 hole scoring at 40/1.
Tips
Back W.Simpson to win Tour Championship/FedEx Cup (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfair (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back P.Casey to win 72 hole scoring (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
Back B.Snedeker to win 72 hole scoring (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
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