The Final Series begins on the European Tour this week with the Turkish Airlines Open, the third to last event in the Race to Dubai this season. There is so much to play for over the course of the next three weeks so after playing second fiddle to the PGA Tour for much of the year, the European Tour can come into its own now.
Justin Rose heads to Antalya looking to defend the title he won for a second time last year, but with the best players in Europe this term in the field, this could take some winning if he is to make it a hat-trick of victories.
Recent Winners
2018 – Justin Rose
2017 – Justin Rose
2016 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2015 – Victor Dubuisson
2014 – Brooks Koepka
2013 – Victor Dubuisson
The Course
The tournament is back at the Montgomerie Maxx Royal this week for the first time since 2015, so Justin Rose will defend on a different track to the one he won his two titles on. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,133 yards so it isn’t overly long but with five par 5s and the same number of par 3s we are set for a low scoring week.
The greens here are huge and full of undulations so putting is going to be a big thing. If you look at the winners above we can see that clean drivers who get it out there off the tee and whole can get their ball rolling on the greens are the ones to be with. Birdies and better are very much the order of the day this week.
The Field
The fields for the last three events of the campaign are going to be absolutely stacked and while some leading lights are taking the week off after the WGC last week, the tournament still has the likes of defending champion Justin Rose and former Masters winner Patrick Reed headlining it. The Open champion is another man with a major under his belt who is in the field.
English pair Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Wallace add a star attraction to the field while Francesco Molinari and Bernd Wiesberger are a couple of continental Europeans who will be eyeing up the win this week. Danny Willett will be looking to add this title to his BMW PGA Championship one while Alex Noren and Haotong Li will be bidding to make up for a relatively poor year by their standards.
Market Leaders
It is Justin Rose who is the 8/1 favourite to make it three wins in a row this week. I don’t think he is in anything like the form he was in when winning this title for the first two times. His long game looks patchy to me and it has been a while since we’ve seen him really impress off the tee, which would be a concern around here. I’m not saying Rose can’t win but he’s no price for me given the way he has been playing.
Patrick Reed is becoming a seasoned campaigner on the European Tour these days and he is an 11/1 shot to win what would be the biggest title of his stay in Europe, outside of his Masters victory. I think he is improving and there is every chance this track could suit him nicely but there is just something about that 11/1 price that looks a little on the short side to me. Like Rose, if Reed wins I won’t be surprised but I can’t get involved at the price.
Shane Lowry is 16/1 to win his first title as the Champion Golfer of the Year. His results have been better than his play since he won at Royal Portrush and that is a concern. He definitely has the power and the putting ability to tame this track but he wouldn’t be the first new major champion to fall off the rails for a few months afterwards. He is still very much in Race to Dubai contention though which is something to consider but he isn’t for me.
Tyrrell Hatton will tee off as an 18/1 poke to land the title this week. This has been a poor year but his high standards but he has had a decent couple of efforts out in Asia recently. I’m not convinced this course plays to his strengths hence why he has never cracked the top 15 and that is more than enough to make me swerve him here.
Main Bets
Haotong Li caught my eye on home soil last week where he led the field after the first round but then his long game went AWOL and he ended up doing 54 holes of scrambling as a result on a course where you don’t really want to be scrambling. The long game is a lot less tested this week so this largely becomes a second shot golf course and can turn into a putting contest. He made 18 birdies last week but a shocking third round completely derailed him but a lot of his mistakes were into the greens. I don’t see that being as much of an issue here as the greens are pretty big and this course isn’t overly long. Li is ninth in par 5 scoring on the European Tour this season and looks to be coming into form at the right time. Since The Open he was T20 in the St Jude WGC, T51 at Wentworth after a final round 76, T23 at the Dunhill Links, MC by a shot in Spain and Italy and then last week. If he starts like he did in China I’m not so sure he’ll fade this time. He’s my main bet.
Another of my main bets is Robert MacIntyre, who is a class act and a winner in waiting. There is so much to like about the game of the Scot and next year he is going to be a massive feature once he has completed the rotation of courses and things aren’t alien to him. That said, he isn’t exactly struggling with the lack of course knowledge this term. He has five top 10s on tour this year including a couple of runner up finishes, and another five top 20s. He is a clean hitter of the golf ball and a wonderful putter. This isn’t the strongest field for a Rolex Series event so at the prices he is worth a bet.
Given that we are betting in only one tournament this week I’m going to allow myself another main bet and that comes in a man I’ve followed a lot recently in Victor Perez. He delivered a significant profit for us last week even though he never really looked like winning but T4 in that sort of company on his WGC debut should not be downplayed. That was a phenomenal performance backing up his win in the Dunhill Links and a T16 in the Open de France on home soil in which he was much better placed until a poor Sunday. Perez gives it a good blow off the tee and as we saw in Scotland and last week he is spot on with the irons and he gets his ball rolling on the greens. Like MacIntyre, he could take the Tour by storm next year when the courses and travelling is more familiar. He can do some damage this week though at an acceptable price.
Outsiders
Steven Brown did me in last time out when he pipped Brandon Stone for the Portugal Masters and while I’m loathe to take a player next time out after his first win at any level, there are reasons to take Brown here. Firstly he was second best in the field in Portugal when it comes to putting, admittedly a much weaker field than this, but conditions here are similar to Portugal and the required game is the same too. Let’s make no mistake about it, this is a free hit for Brown. He went to Portugal needing a result to have playing rights next year and then he won and not only has that tour card but he’s in the remainder of the events with a good week here. To perform under that pressure shows a sign of class regardless of who or what he beat With last four weeks form figures of 37, MC, 11 and 1 and a T15 not long before that, he’s in good nick and might just be a monster priced sleeper.
Padraig Harrington is another who caught my attention for a couple of reasons. I always like him in tournaments where a good short game is needed and his win in Portugal a couple of seasons ago showed why but actually he sits at 13 in par 5 scoring on the European Tour this season which could be key. Harrington is a wizard with the irons and with little or no stress off the tee around this track there is half a chance that he could run hot. The one thing we know with Harrington is if he gets in contention he won’t be back tracking. At 175/1 I’ll pay to see if he can get himself in the mix and if he can we will have a right runner.
Tips
Back H.Li to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Betway (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back R.MacIntyre to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back V.Perez to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Harrington to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back S.Brown to win Turkish Airlines Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2019
