The Florida Swing concludes on the PGA Tour this week when the Valspar Championship takes place in Tampa Bay. After a thrilling week at The Players Championship and with the WGC next week and Augusta on the horizon, plenty of players will be looking to keep their form going.
Paul Casey was the man in form here last year when he battled to the title and he will be looking to make a successful defence of it. A fairly good field has been assembled to take him on when you consider the position the tournament has in the calendar.
Recent Winners
2018 – Paul Casey
2017 – Adam Hadwin
2016 – Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – John Senden
2013 – Kevin Streelman
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Gary Woodland
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Retief Goosen
The Course
Once again the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay is the host venue this week. After the tour went round the iconic TPC Sawgrass last week they get another brutal finish with the Snake Pit this week. They are holes 16-18 which play over par year on year making for an extremely exciting conclusion.
The course is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards but with the rough up this week there is going to be quite a premium on accuracy. If you look through the roll of honour it is a list of great putters so there is a clue in that but tee-to-green strength is another feature of what is needed around here. There is not a single bomber on the recent winners list and that tells a tale heading into the tournament.
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The Field
I would imagine that the field has had a few casualties given the week before, the week after and how close it is to Augusta but a decent enough field is teeing off here. Dustin Johnson heads the field but a number of dangers are here. Jon Rahm led the field after 54 holes last week and he’ll look to put all four rounds together. Jason Day ran well at TPC Sawgrass too and he is also here.
The last two Masters champions are both in the field in the shape of Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia, while the man displaced as The Players champion last week, Webb Simpson, also tees it up here. Defending champion Paul Casey is in the field with a number of seasoned PGA Tour campaigners who are looking to get their careers back to the very top level.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is inevitably the favourite to win the tournament this week. He is 11/2 to win the title but he hasn’t been here since 2010 and the course has undergone a number of changes since then. It didn’t really suit him before then and I’m even less certain that it is any good for him now. DJ isn’t an each way play this week and you’ve got to think the test will suit others more so he isn’t the one for me.
Jon Rahm ploughed himself contention at Sawgrass last week but then bolted out of it with a ridiculous decision eight holes from home and that lack of discipline has to be a concern for anyone considering him at 11/1. The other thing which has to be a concern is that this course doesn’t really fit the bombers. To be fair to Rahm he isn’t a bad putter but as with DJ there just looks many better options here.
Jason Day is a point bigger at 12/1 and he would be the first player I would consider after a decent enough spin at Sawgrass last week. The only thing I don’t like about the Australian is the price which even in this field is a little short. There is no margin for error around this place, but Day is one of the best putters on tour which makes him standout. If he makes a steady start and his price increases I’ll have a go but he’s a little short to begin with.
Sergio Garcia is another market leader who should be suited to this test and he can be taken at 16/1. That is half the price I took him at last week and while the field is a little easier here I’m not completely convinced there is any more than average juice in that price. I would expect Sergio to be in the mix but again we would be looking for him to win to yield any significant dosh and a poor round would put him on the back foot. The price doesn’t lure me in. It is 20/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I guess after last week and everything I’ve said in the last couple of months, I’m reeled in on Jim Furyk even at a quarter of the price he was last week. To be fair that 125/1 last week was double what he should have been anyway so I can live with 33/1 in a weaker field especially as he has previously won around here. I guess the concern over Furyk prior to last week was what he would be like under the pump when the pressure comes on and that was well and truly answered at Sawgrass. That confirmed the suspicions I’ve had for a while that he will go in again soon. At 33/1 I’m paying to see if this is my week.
Keegan Bradley made it back into the winners’ circle towards the end of last season and if you have more time on your hands than usual there has been a lot to like about him this term too. He hasn’t gone in but there has been a lot of good golf and the main thing to take from his outings is that he is retaining his poise with the putter, the club which we know has given him plenty of issues in the past. Bradley sits one outside the top 20 in strokes gained tee-to-green and he has been in the top 20 in the three truly big tournaments of the season so far – both WGCs and The Players. But for an indifferent second round he would have been bang in the mix last week. He can make up for that here with his ball striking.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week, all of whom putt well and while not the elitist of ball strikers I’ve got that department covered with the main bets. The first outsider is Wyndham Clark who ranks sixth in total putting and #15 in strokes gained in that discipline. He has caught fire recently. He was DQd for signing the wrong scorecard last week but prior to that he had top 10s in Puerto Rico and The Honda Classic. He stalled in the final round at PGA National but if he has learnt from that he should be in the mix here.
Statistically at least, Brian Gay is the leading putter on the PGA Tour with him ranking first in both total putting and strokes gained. Admittedly this is a tough track with the long game but he is sixth in fairways hit this season so if he can dial a few irons in, and he isn’t going to be lacing the long irons very often around here, then he should lap the field on the dancefloors. The best putters have this place on their CV and with a top 10 at Pebble Beach, a top 20 at the Honda and middle rounds of 67 and 68 last week the form is there for a strong run from him here.
Patton Kizzire is a strange one. His best form tends to be in California but even though we’re on the other coast here I can’t not back him with his putting credentials. He is ranked 25 in total putting but as high as seven in strokes gained and is known as one of the best putters on the tour. There isn’t a huge amount in his recent form but either side of Christmas he went T15-1 (pairs event) – T8-T13. He was 13 under for each of the three singles events in that run. That sort of score will win this week so at a bonkers price I’ll override the negatives and trust he’s got four competitive rounds in him.
Tips
Back J.Furyk to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back K.Bradley to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back P.Kizzire to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back W.Clark to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back B.Gay to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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