The third quarter final of the Vitality Blast is a repeat of the final from last year as Sussex take on Worcestershire down at Hove on Friday night. Worcestershire won the day at Edgbaston 12 months ago but with home advantage Sussex will be expecting revenge here.
Worcestershire are unlikely to give up their title without a fight but defeat at Northampton on the final night of group matches means they have to travel to one of the best sides in the competition which won’t help them.
Sussex
Despite seeing players come and go throughout the group stage, Sussex were too good for the rest and secured top spot with a little bit in hand. They might only have eventually won the group by a point but that was because they lost their last group game to second placed Gloucestershire when they already had a home quarter final secured. Only they will know how seriously they took that match but this is a side used to winning big matches.
Sussex don’t have the deepest batting line up and there is no doubt in my mind that it is a concern but the flip side of that is that their top four are probably the best in the competition man for man so if they fire it isn’t a problem. Their bowling attack doesn’t look as strong now as it did at the start of the competition so they may well need that top order to fire if they are going to get their revenge.
Worcestershire
It has been an inconsistent title defence for Worcestershire so far but injuries have played a huge part in that. They haven’t been able to put their best 11 on the field very much in this competition and it would appear they are not going to have that luxury here either. Despite their struggles with personnel, when it has all clicked for Worcestershire they have looked a good side but when they are just off they’ve looked very vulnerable.
The big concern for Worcestershire fans going into this quarter final would be that their bowling attack doesn’t look nearly as solid and disciplined this term. The absence of Brett D’Oliviera has taken away one of their squeeze options while Pat Brown has struggled to replicate the form of last season. Of their main bowling options only one of them is going at less than eight an over and they only have three players with more than 200 runs to their name in the tournament. That’s not a good combination.
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Team News
Sussex will be without one of their overseas players in Jason Behrendorff for this match but the other one does play the final game of his spell in Alex Carey. Jofra Archer is away with England but Chris Jordan and Reece Topley are available. Tymal Mills misses out injured.
Worcestershire have had a bit of a mare with their overseas players. They will be without Martin Guptill who is on New Zealand duty only for him to go down injured leaving the Kiwis to call up his Rapids replacement Hamish Rutherford. Callum Ferguson has departed now too so Worcestershire are without an overseas player. Wayne Parnell misses out with illness but Moeen Ali is available.
Betting
If everyone was around and all was good I would be backing Worcestershire here but both teams have injuries which isn’t going to help when it comes to predicting the winner of this match. Both teams also lost their last group game which also isn’t very helpful when it comes to picking the winner. I’d probably side with Sussex but not with much confidence.
I do however like the prospect of there being more than 320.5 runs. Whichever team wins this is going to have to rely on their batsmen I think. Sussex have a slightly better looking bowling attack but it still isn’t as good as it was at the beginning of the campaign when Rashid Khan, Tymal Mills and Jofra Archer were involved. Worcestershire are struggling a bit with the ball too but they have a powerful top six. I’m not expecting the pitch to be that bad because Sussex have known for a couple of weeks that they have this match coming and it doesn’t suit them to play on a pitch doing all sorts. 157/6 played 158/5 in the final last year and I think there’s a few extra runs in both sides here.
Ben Cox top scored for Worcestershire in the final last year and at 13/2 I’m happy to have a nibble on him doing it again here. He looks to be coming into form at the right time with an unbeaten 44 against Northants last week which was only seven runs away from top scoring. He made 28 against a good Lancashire attack the game before that as well and is one of the better one day wicket-keeper batsmen in the country. He batted four last week and could be there again here so the 13/2 on him top scoring looks nice enough to me.
Tips
WON – Back Over 320.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betway
Back it here:
Back B.Cox Top Worcestershire Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 with Bet365
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