We have gone through the outright market and preview for the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play and before the tournament begins and the first round action takes centre stage there is one more set of markets for us to look at.
One of the beauties of betting on this tournament is that all 16 groups often get priced up and that is the case this week, so we can collect on a few bets after just three days of action which is nice. I’ve looked through the groups and I actually see differing sorts of value in six of them.
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Group 2
Justin Rose is the headline attraction in the second group of the week but having not played here for a while I wonder if he is vulnerable. At any rate I’m not convinced the course sets up perfectly for him and you’ve got to think that he will be more worried about going deep at Augusta than here.
That will give the other three men in the group, Gary Woodland, Eddie Peperrell and Emiliano Grillo plenty of confidence and belief that they can get out of the section. Woodland was actually a runner up in this tournament, albeit in San Francisco rather than here, but he is playing good golf and I fancy him to come through here. Pepperell is a debutant this week and while he can put up a good showing he isn’t for me. If Grillo was a fraction longer he might be interesting but this course suits Woodland and he’s got my money.
Group 7
All eyes will be on Francesco Molinari here after his 5-0 record in the Ryder Cup but he has never come out of the group stage in this tournament and while he has a new found status in the game now, he looks one of the more vulnerable seeds who surely has to be taken on this week.
That is what Webb Simpson, Thorbjorn Olesen and Satoshi Kodaira will be hoping to prove. They are the three to take on the Italian and it is the European who I think should be chanced here. Simpson will have been seeded higher than 21 and so the fact he has never come out of the group says a lot too while Kodaira looks out of his depth here. Olesen has an indifferent record in this tournament but he’s comfortably the longest in this group and his short game is decent enough to capitalise on that length. At 11/2 he’s too big to resist.
Group 10
The Valspar Championship winner from last week, Paul Casey, is the top seed in this group and as a former winner of this tournament and with a good match play record it is perfectly understandable why he is a warm favourite but winning can take it out of a player so perhaps he isn’t the certainty he might look.
Casey faces off with Cameron Smith, Charles Howell III and Abraham Ancer in what should be a cracking group for those who enjoy ball striking. I suspect the Australian ace Smith is being forgotten a little here though. He was a quarter finalist on debut here last year and was an extremely talented match player in Australia in his formative days. He is looking to catch the eye of Ernie Els this week and get onto that Presidents Cup team and at a shade under 3/1 he’s too big to ignore.
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Group 11
One of the better groups this week will be Group 11 where Tommy Fleetwood is the man seeded to progress through to the knockout stages of the tournament. That is due to his position in the world rankings but he has only come out of the group once which would be a concern and even though he went into Ryder Cup singles 4-0 he was walloped by Tony Finau.
That will not have gone unnoticed by Louis Oosthuizen, Kyle Stanley or Byeong-Hun An who are the three men opposing him here. Stanley can’t be trusted with the putter and I’m not sure about the consistency of the Korean in this company so I like the inaugural finalist here Louis Oosthuizen. He has made two other quarter finals in this tournament and has a fine record in the format. This course sets up nicely for him and at 9/4 he’s my biggest bet for the group stage.
Group 13
This group will undoubtedly get plenty of attention this week because it is the one containing the former champion Tiger Woods, however this is the first time Woods will have played the event here and he has never played it under the group format either. Whether this course suits him remains to be seen but I’m not convinced.
Woods faces an American trio of Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker and Aaron Wise and I’m willing to take a chance on the latter. I could never trust Cantlay on these greens while Snedeker looks a little short to me. Wise is debutant here while I’m not going to hide is an issue but he had a wonderful record in this format at college and makes a bunch of birdies. At 7/1 I’ll pay to see if he can make enough of them to come through here.
Group 14
This is one of few groups where the top seed, in his case Tony Finau, is not the favourite to win it. Anyone who watched his singles match at Le Golf National in the Ryder Cup might raise an eyebrow or two at that fact but he’s drawn himself a bit of a monster section here, hence why he is the second favourite in it.
It is actually Ian Poulter who is the favourite for this part of the draw. The former champion in this event has a wonderful match play record and is a worthy favourite. The duo go up against the finalist from last year, Kevin Kisner, and winner at The Honda Classic in Keith Mitchell. Clearly this is a group where the winner is unlikely to have won all three matches so I’m going to take a chance on Mitchell, who is a wonderful putter and is brimming with confidence right now. He has nothing to lose either and if he can turn Finau over on the opening day, he might just be able to put enough pressure on the two shorter hitters to get the job done.
Tips
Back T.Olesen to win Group 7 for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Boylesports
Back him here:
Back A.Wise to win Group 13 for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with Betfair
Back K.Mitchell to win Group 14 for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with Betfair
Back them here:
Back G.Woodland to win Group 2 for a 2/10 stake at 3.50 with Bet365
Back C.Smith to win Group 10 for a 2/10 stake at 3.80 with Bet365
WON – Back L.Oosthuizen to win Group 11 for a 3/10 stake at 3.25 with Sky Bet
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