Although everyone in the golf world is beginning to think about Augusta in two weeks, there is a big tournament this week when the second WGC event of 2019 takes place in Austin. Stroke play makes way for match play this week for the Dell Technologies Match Play event.
64 of the best players in the world head to Texas looking to win seven matches and take home a sizeable first prize and a bucket load of ranking points. Bubba Watson did just that 12 months ago and is here to defend his title.
Recent Winners
2018 – Bubba Watson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Jason Day
2013 – Matt Kuchar
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Ian Poulter
2009 – Geoff Ogilvy
The Format
The 64 men in the competition have been drawn into 16 groups. The groups have been seeded so each one contains a player from the four pots which were made up of players ranked 1-16, 17-32, 33-48 and 49-64. As such you would think the better players in the world have something of an advantage here.
The tournament begins with the group phase where each player plays the other three in his group once over the first three days. The winner of each group goes into the last 16. If there is a tie on points at the end of a group a play-off takes place. The last 16 and quarter finals are on Saturday with the semi-finals and the final on Sunday. Every match is over 18 holes. Extra holes will be played to determine the result of knockout matches.
The Course
We are at Austin Country Club for the fourth time this week and I have to say I love this course for Match Play. It is a par 71 measuring just the 7,108 yards but it is a good tee of the all-round game and offers the right blend of tough holes with the risk and reward options that makes this format so entertaining.
You would think that judging by the lack of size of it that everyone could feature here but there is a clear bias for the monster hitters, as evidenced by the three champions here. Kevin Kisner showed last year that if you have hot wedges and hole everything you can succeed without length but he is a rare breed in this tournament.
The Field
The top 64 in the world rankings have been invited to compete here and while not everyone took up the invitation the majority of them did. One man who is here for the first time is Tiger Woods. He hasn’t played the Match Play since it left the desert but three guaranteed rounds has lured him to the event.
Big hitters such as Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm, Jason Day and Tony Finau will be licking their lips this week while Rory McIlroy will be looking for a second huge win in the space of a couple of weeks. Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Valspar champion Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson and Justin Thomas are just some of the top level names on show this week.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is a 10/1 shot to follow up his Players Championship title with the WGC Match Play one. The group stage probably benefits him because he can throw in the odd ordinary round so he has the chance to recover should one appear here. He is hitting the ball well and can take apart any course in this format. He has to be a leading contender. The only thing putting me off him is how huge Augusta is to him. That has to be on his mind by now.
Dustin Johnson is 11/1 to tame the Austin Country Club once again. He looked in pretty good order in Mexico and hasn’t been too bad since then but I sense he isn’t putting as well as he can and these greens find anyone out if they are not hitting it purely on the dancefloors. He is in the tougher quarter as well which makes him a no go for me this week.
Justin Thomas made the semi-final here last year and he is 16/1 to go a couple of steps further this time around too. You would think he is a major runner here with no real weakness in his game. He is long off the tee, good with irons and underrated on the greens. Like all top players the one-on-one combat brings out the best in his game so he is another who should go very well here, albeit he is in a spicy quarter.
Jon Rahm lost out to Dustin Johnson in the final here a couple of years ago but there is no reason to suggest he won’t run hot here. For three rounds at Sawgrass he was leading the field and while the final round caught him out he’s only playing one man seven times here. This course looks perfect for him so at 20/1 he is going to be extremely popular. It is 22/1 bar the main quartet.
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Main Bets
Jon Rahm is actually my main bet this week. I can’t ignore him at 20/1. He is capable of destroying the back nine of this course and he probably has a little more game awareness now than he did two years ago when he made the final of this tournament. As I intimated above he is in good form despite the final round at Sawgrass and what I like about him here is he is in the top 12 in putts holed inside 10 feet on Tour this year. This course has lots of subtle breaks on the greens so balls run a lot further past the hole and you are guaranteed to have to hole plenty of 5-10 foot par putts. That touch on the greens combined with his power getting to them makes him a huge runner.
I’m not normally one for defending champions but I can make an exception for Bubba Watson this week given that the profile is going to be largely on the likes of Dustin Johnson and Tiger Woods. Watson is another with a good game for this course. He can smoke it over the trouble and he can shape his shots accordingly much in the way we know he likes to do. He may not be in the form he was last year when he had won the Genesis coming in here but he was fourth last week and being a creature of habit he shouldn’t be ignored this week, particularly as he is in the weaker looking quarter of the four.
Outsiders
I was on Kiradech Aphibarnrat here last year when he made a run to the quarter finals to get me a pay out and I’m happy to go with him again. He has won the Paul Lawrie Match Play and the Super 6 in Perth on the European Tour so it is clear to see that mano-et-mano clearly gets his juices flowing. This course suits him as well as he has enough length off the tee to get into the areas needed and his short game is wonderful which is one of the reasons why he is so successful in this format. The Thai is in the only group with a debutant as the main seed so he is in a nice spot in the draw and should be able to take advantage of such.
Aaron Wise was a crack hot match player in his college days and I’ll pay to see what the Byron Nelson winner from last year has to offer. When he’s on his game it is usually a lot of birdies and that is never a bad thing in this format. Given that bogeys and the likes only see him lose one hole I think it is worth paying to see just how many birdies he makes on a course set up for his length off the tee and the idea of making birdies. Everyone thinks Woods is untouchable in his group but he isn’t and if he can make the knockout stages anything can happen from there. He’s a huge price but certainly no forlorn hope.
Tips
Back J.Rahm to win WGC Match Play (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 21.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back B.Watson to win WGC Match Play (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with 888sport (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win WGC Match Play (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Sky Bet (1/4 1-4)
Back A.Wise to win WGC Match Play (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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