The leading lights in the game of golf head to Mexico this week for the first WGC event of 2019, the Mexico Championship. This week continues the run of excellent tournaments leading up to The Masters in April.
Phil Mickelson got himself back in the winners’ enclosure here last year and he will look to be the first man to defend the title successfully in Mexico. A serious cast list will be out to stop him in what should be a good week of golf.
Recent Winners
2018 – Phil Mickelson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
The Course
We go back to the Club de Golf Chapultepec for the third time this week. The obvious thing to mention, even though it barely needs mentioning, is the altitude with the course being a whopping 7,500 feet above sea level so the ball will travel a lot further than normal and distance control may suffer as a result.
The course itself is a par 71 which stretches to 7,330 yards although as mentioned above it isn’t going to play anywhere near that total. The course it treelined and full of undulations and much like last week has the same grasses as Riviera. With players getting to know the track more than more now we should expect a fairly low scoring week.
The Field
Near enough the top 50 in the current world rankings are here this week which makes one of the best fields of the year so far. It is headlined by the former winner Dustin Johnson while a certain Tiger Woods tees it up here too, as does the defending champion Phil Mickelson. Major champions Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka and Francesco Molinari are also in the field.
There is a significant European presence teeing it up this week with Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Paul Casey and Alex Noren among others in the field. Hideki Matsuyama heads the international charge while the likes of Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and Justin Thomas will all be looking to get their name on the trophy.
Market Leaders
Justin Thomas is actually the 10/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. He chased JB Holmes home at Riviera last week which is probably a good warm up for this event although spending 36 holes in the company of Holmes is enough to put anyone off the game of golf. Thomas was beaten in a playoff here last year so he ticks a lot of boxes and will be fancied strongly by many I’m sure.
First winner here Dustin Johnson is a point bigger at 11/1. He won in Saudi Arabia recently so is in good form although he never really featured last week when many expected him to do so. It isn’t very often these days that Johnson goes into a tournament and isn’t the favourite which might make him appeal to some. He has won around here so he shouldn’t be ignored.
Rory McIlroy goes into the week as a 12/1 poke to win the tournament. I’ve still not seen anything from him to suggest that he’s about to go in and once again, while it is never a surprise if his quality finally gets him over the line, he needs to win again before I trust him to do so and 12/1 in this company isn’t making me rush to back him either in fairness.
Jon Rahm is a 16/1 shot to land a first WGC title of the season. I’m expecting big things from the Spaniard over the next few weeks on courses which should suit him perfectly. I’m not sure this is one of them though and as such I’ll tentatively keep my powder dry on him in the hope of better value in the coming weeks on better tracks for him. It is 18/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I like a couple of main bets this week with the first of them being on Rickie Fowler, who should in theory have a decent 2019 now that he has got his first win of the year under his belt at the Phoenix Open. He needed that win and that should give him confidence, especially on and around the greens, to go well here. Scrambling is going to be a big thing this week and he has a wonderful short game and playing with the freedom of a win behind him I fancy he can maximise his ability to win here.
Tiger Woods should have every chance this week too. He won’t have to pound many drivers this week which should see him keeping the ball in play off the tee and there isn’t anything wrong with the rest of his game. He wasn’t far away from getting right in contention last week even though all the stopping and starting and waiting around won’t have been any good for him at all. We know Woods is all about building up to Augusta but what better way of laying a marker down for that tournament than replacing his rival Phil Mickelson as the winner of this one.
Outsiders
I’ll take a trio of outsiders from the European Tour who have all proven themselves at altitude and who should love this track. The first of those is Alex Noren. He has won the Omega European Masters twice and nailed the top 10 twice more and he was inside the top 15 here last year. This course sets up very well for him with his excellent iron play and short game. If he starts well he should be right there.
Matthew Fitzpatrick has actually won the tournament in the Swiss Alps for the past two seasons and was seventh and second in the two seasons before that. He has a top 20 and top 30 here and given that he has begun the current season strongly with a runner up spot in the Hong Kong Open, I’m expecting him to be a major player over the four days of this competition.
I backed Danny Willett to win the Genesis Open last week and to be fair to him he didn’t go too badly on a course which will have gotten too long for him quite quickly and the intermittent nature of play probably didn’t help either. I’m convinced 2019 is going to be a good year for him though and given that he’s another who has won the Omega Masters, and won in Sun City, as well as landing the season ending title in Dubai last season, he should enjoy conditions here. At three figures I have to back him again here if only to avoid kicking myself if he’s in the mix and I’m not on!
Tips
Back R.Fowler to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back T.Woods to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back A.Noren to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back D.Willett to win WGC Mexico Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
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