A new winner of the World Matchplay will be crowned on Sunday night when Michael Smith and Rob Cross battle it out for the second biggest ranking title in the game. It has been a truly memorable week inside the Winter Gardens and the final should round it off nicely.
Both men have been in major finals in the past. Cross has won the biggest title in the sport, while Smith is looking for a first televised trophy. It is the first to 18 in what has all the hallmarks of being a brilliant occasion.
Michael Smith
In the main Michael Smith has got better the longer this tournament has gone on. He has had some battles to make it to this stage too. He trailed Jamie Hughes 6-3 in the opening round and then had to come through a titanic tussle with Max Hopp in the second round. From there onwards he has generally been comfortable, always looking to have too much for Mervyn King and then destroying Glen Durrant with 10 of the best legs you’ll ever see to open up their semi-final on Saturday night.
Smith has been to a couple of the biggest finals in the game already in his career. He made the Premier League final last year and then the World Championship final at the start of this year. Unfortunately for him he has run into Michael van Gerwen on excellent form on both occasions but he faces someone else here so this would appear to be his best chance yet of major glory.
Rob Cross
This was a big week for Rob Cross at the outset. Everyone knows he has a huge chunk of money coming off his ranking at the end of the year so he needed to bank as much as possible from the major events before then in order to lessen the damage when that World Championship winning pot comes away. He has already softened that blow here and if he wins this final he will have made huge strides in protecting himself come the turn of the year.
Cross was on easy street in the early part of this tournament but he has been involved in two of the best matches of the event to date in the quarter final and semi-final. He produced two brilliant legs to see off Stephen Bunting 16-14 and then looked dead and buried in the last four before reeling off eight legs on the spin to come from 15-9 down to Daryl Gurney to see off the Northern Irishman 17-15 in an amazing contest.
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Head-to-Head
These two have met on 15 previous occasions which includes three in 2019. Cross leads 12-3 overall and has won all three of their battles this year. The first of them came in the semi-final of the UK Open which Cross won 11-7 and then he also picked up a couple of huge wins over his World Cup teammate in the Premier League too. Smith was suffering injuries at that time though so how much we should read into them remains to be seen I would suggest.
This is the second time that these two will have battled it out in a final after they met in the Shanghai Masters final last year. Smith won 8-2 on that occasion. In TV matches away from the World Series events it is Cross who leads 7-0 which is a pretty emphatic record, so based on history he is a worthy favourite.
Betting
For all that history is with Rob Cross I’m with Michael Smith in this final. It isn’t always easy backing up a very good performance the following day but I would rather be in his position of having the task of doing that than Cross’ one which is to work out why he was so terrible for 25 legs of his semi-final before hitting a purple patch to come through and make his way into this final. If he is as bad again here Smith will be miles in front and it is hard to see Cross battling back twice. Smith has immense scoring power. As good as Cross scores he doesn’t live with Smith in that so if Smith finishes like he did in the semi-final, where he was 90% on his doubles after hitting his ninth winning finish, he should win this match.
One of the things that will assist Smith in this match is his scoring power and I’m surprised his 180s line for the match is in single figures. You’ve got to think we’re going to see somewhere in the ballpark of 30 legs so to cover a 9.5 line we would only need him to average a 180 every three legs. He hit nine 180s in his semi-final win over Glen Durrant and a ridiculous 32 140s. All things being equal I’m expecting him to reach double figures in maximums in this match.
Tips
Back M.Smith to beat R.Cross for a 4/10 stake at 2.15 with Boylesports
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Back M.Smith – Over 9.5 180s for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
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