Just under seven weeks after the previous season finished, the new Premier League campaign gets underway on Saturday with the biggest and best teams in the country looking to win the title or finish high up and get themselves onto the money tree that is European football.
Liverpool finally ended their 30-year title drought last season and they will carry the burden of attempting to defend the title this term. This looks and feels like a more competitive season though so they’ll need to be at their best to keep hold of the title.
Recent Winners
2019-20 – Liverpool
2018-19 – Manchester City
2017-18 – Manchester City
2016-17 – Chelsea
2015-16 – Leicester City
2014-15 – Chelsea
2013-14 – Manchester City
2012-13 – Manchester United
2011-12 – Manchester City
2010-11 – Manchester United
The Favourites
Manchester City have won four of the last nine Premier League titles but they are not the current champions. Despite that, they are 4/5 to win the title this season and not many outside of Liverpool fans will be keen to take them on. Injuries killed City’s chances last term as did a weak defence but with the latter issue resolved slightly with the signing of Nathan Ake, the Citizens are sure to go close with a bit of luck on the injury front.
Considering they are the current champions Liverpool might feel they are being written off a little by the bookmakers given that they are 9/4 shots to keep hold of the title. Only a very special Manchester City team have retained this title in the last 10 years though so it clearly isn’t an easy thing to do, which is probably reflected in the Liverpool price. The other reason for the price might be that Liverpool haven’t really strengthened over the off-season. You could argue that they don’t need to but if you don’t strengthen you stand still and are vulnerable to improvers. Nevertheless in a two horse race the case for Liverpool being big is obvious.
Chelsea have spent incredibly big this summer and have been backed into 10/1 as a result. The big question is whether they have sufficiently strengthened in the areas that they needed to and I’m not so sure that they have. Most of their additions have come in attacking areas but it was the defensive parts of the pitch where they were found wanting. I don’t see any team breaking into the top two this season but unless Lampard sorts the back five out before the window closes I’m not convinced the Blues will be the best of the rest.
Contenders
Manchester United are the fourth favourites for the title even though they finished third last season. They haven’t done much business in the summer but given the youngsters that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer blooded they didn’t need to. It is pretty clear they are going to make a marquee signing, whether that is Jadon Sancho or someone else, and that will only make them even stronger. With a quality keeper to provide competition for David de Gea and Bruno Fernandes in from the start plus a seemingly motivated Paul Pogba, United look the best of the front two even if the title is beyond them.
Arsenal have picked up a couple of trophies over the last six weeks or so and that has propelled them into 33/1 shots for the Premier League title. That is a pipedream at the minute but they are improving all the time under Mikel Arteta and if he can keep on fine tuning his squad ahead of the window there is no reason why his side can’t push for the top four. You get the feeling Arsenal are going to be tactically a lot better this season and not be the rollovers they have been at the awkward away grounds and against the bigger teams. That in itself can yield points.
Tottenham Hotspur are the other members of the top six and they are 50/1 to win the league. We can safely say that isn’t happening and a return to the Champions League will probably both be their aim and it will be their ceiling too I suspect. Any success Tottenham have will be based on whether Harry Kane stays fit and that just isn’t a proposition that can ever be attractive from a punting point of view.
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Best of the Rest
There isn’t a great deal of difference in the prices of the next 5-6 in the betting. Leeds United are actually seventh favourites for the league on the best prices. They won’t be one of these sides that come up from the Championship and teeter on the edge of going back down and ultimately succumb to it. They are a better team than the one Sheffield United brought into the Premier League so based on that it stands to reason that Leeds will do well. I think they are top half material rather than anything else though as good as Bielsa is.
Wolves have no European commitments this season so they are entitled to be battling it out in and around the top six again but again that is probably the best they are going to do unless everything falls into place for them. Leicester do have Europe this season so it will be interesting to see how that impacts on them. Everton are the potential improvers into the top six or seven with the money they’ve spent and how wisely they’ve done it but for all of these sides there is no title possibilities for them.
Outright Betting
I expect Manchester City to win the title but clearly we’re not going to get rich backing them to do so at 4/5 so I’ll get a little bit more exotic and choose the top four in the correct order to form something like a value bet. There is no doubt in my mind that the top two will be Manchester City and Liverpool in either order. I expect City to come on strong this season so that is why I’m taking them to be champions but those two look a million miles clear of anything in the league.
That leaves us with third and fourth and although there is a lot of hype around Chelsea I don’t see them overcoming Manchester United. As I eluded to above there is no doubt Chelsea have caught the eye with their signings but they haven’t addressed their big problem. I’m banking on there being a marquee signing at Manchester United, be it Sancho or someone else, and with the likes of Donny van de Beek adding some quality to the centre of the pitch United will be in decent order. I think they’ll beat Chelsea to third so my order would be Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea.
Premier League w/o the top 6
The other market I like to bet on is what I call the best of the rest which is the Premier League without the big six, adding Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur to the four sides mentioned above. Leicester City were always going to be the winners of this league from a long way out last season but European football and the continued injury to Ricardo Pereira do nothing for their chances where I’m concerned. Everton have spent big and if their signings gel Carlo Ancelotti could get them firing again but I’m with another team here.
That is Wolverhampton Wanderers who should be a lot better for not having to trek halfway around Europe every week and they’ll certainly benefit from not starting their season a month before everyone else like they did last season. Wolves are very good going forward now and they have been hard to break down for a while and while other challengers for this position have weakened Wolves should come on again with their potential. Even at 9/4 they look solid things here.
Tips
Back Exact Top 4 Order – Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd & Chelsea for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Sky Bet
Back Wolverhampton Wanderers to win the Premier League (w/o big 6) for a 3/10 stake at 3.25 with Sky Bet
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