The EFL season begins on Friday night and with Luton Town being in the Championship it is that division which will form our interest in the EFL leagues this term, as another battle to get among the elite takes the spotlight.
The division lost Leeds United, West Bromwich Albion and Fulham last term and looks a lot weaker and much more open because of it, so we should be in for another exciting and unpredictable season in the second tier.
Recent Winners
2019-20 – Leeds United
2018-19 – Norwich City
2017-18 – Wolverhampton Wanderers
2016-17 – Newcastle United
2015-16 – Burnley
2014-15 – Bournemouth
2013-14 – Leicester City
2012-13 – Cardiff City
2011-12 – Reading
2010-11 – Queens Park Rangers
The Favourites
Norwich City knew from a pretty early stage last season that they would be back in the Championship and as a result they might be better prepared for the campaign ahead than they might otherwise have been. The champions of two seasons ago are 6/1 to win the division again and at the time or writing it is hard to pick holes in them. If they can keep the bulk of their squad together until the end of the transfer window they look like the team to beat but with plenty of admirers having eyes on the likes of Max Aarons, Todd Cantwell, Teemo Pukki and Ben Godfrey among others, that might not be as easy as it sounds.
Brentford messed up two chances of getting promoted last season and that has to be a concern for any backers of them at 13/2. They should have been promoted automatically when they controlled their own destiny with two matches against lowly ranked opponents to play but fluffed their lines spectacularly and then lost out in the play-off final. They are playing it down but that disappointment has to be in the minds somewhere. The loss of Ollie Watkins is a blow, although Ivan Toney looks a competent replacement but should Said Benrahma depart this would look a much weaker Brentford side than the one which couldn’t go up last season.
Watford were relegated on the final day of last season and are 7/1 to make an immediate return to the Premier League as champions. You have to go back to Newcastle four seasons ago for the last team to come down and win this division so that might be a concern. Abdoulaye Doucoure has already left Vicarage Road this summer and you would be surprised if more don’t depart at some point so they might be a little on the short side when their squad for the campaign is confirmed.
Bournemouth were the other relegated side and they can be taken as big as 12/1 to win the division. That looks a little unlikely though based on the players they have already lost. From last term, Aaron Ramsdale, Nathan Ake, Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser, four key players, have departed the Vitality Stadium while manager Eddie Howe is no more either. The Cherries appointed Howe’s assistant so not much may change on the coaching front but those four players are huge losses and you wonder if more will leave before the window closes.
The Contenders
Stoke City come next in the betting. I keep hearing the phrase ‘sleeping giant’ and ‘underachievers’ about Stoke and both might be true but many managers have tried to turn this ship around and to date they have all failed. There is talent in this Stoke side though and to be fair to Michael O’Neill he looked to be steadying the ship and with a full pre-season to work with his squad it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if they run better than their 14/1 odds suggest they will. It might be worth keeping the Potters onside.
Cardiff City finished like a train under Neil Harris last season to make it into the play-offs where eventual winners Fulham got the better of them in the semi-final. He is another manager to have joined his club midway through the campaign so he will have had pre-season to further install his methods and philosophies on the side and bring players he wants into the club. If there is a dark horse category in your thinking, the Bluebirds might well sit there at 16/1.
Nottingham Forest fans will still be wondering how on earth their side didn’t finish in the top six last season but they didn’t and you wonder if there will be a hangover from that. One positive is they haven’t booted their manager out for the first time in a while so there is a little bit of continuity which might help them. There is just something about that malaise at the end of last season that would put me right off getting involved at what is a fair 16/1 price but no better than that really.
Best of the Rest
Derby County always have plenty of attention on them and any side that can boast Wayne Rooney in their ranks is entitled to go well but this battle with the EFL that they have got themselves into would be a concern should that go against them. The exits of Max Lowe and Jayden Boyle might not be a help either so although the Rams finished last season strongly, they don’t look as good on the face of it this season so their price might be a little on the short side.
Swansea City sit at 20/1 and given that they made the top six last season that would appear a big price but they weren’t really going anywhere until the likes of Conor Gallagher and Rhian Brewster arrived in January. At the time of writing neither of those are back at the Liberty Sradium and while Morgan Gibbs-White looks a decent loan signing from Wolves, I wouldn’t want to be going near them until I see how the loss of Brewster in particular hurts them.
Neil Warnock is never a stranger to leading sides to promotion and he’ll be looking to do that with Middlesbrough. They looked an absolute mess last season but we shouldn’t forget they were in and around the top six the season before so it wouldn’t need too much turning around for them to be challenging again. I just wonder if it is a two-season job to get such a young squad into position to be promoted and with that in mind they are not really for me this season.
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Outright Betting
Given that relegated sides haven’t won this division for a while Brentford are likely to be interested and popular and with the window yet to close they certainly don’t lack money to spend but with last season’s heartache to get over and new surroundings to get used to I just can’t be having those. I actually think this might be the season that goes against the grain and that a relegated side does win this league as Leeds, WBA and Fulham didn’t leave a whole lot behind in truth.
The side I like are Norwich City. I think they are the best settled of the three who came down. With the exception of Jamal Lewis they haven’t lost anyone big yet and the better their start to the season is the better their chances of convincing those young stars to give them another year to get back to the Premier League. Norwich weren’t convincing defensively when they won this league a couple of seasons ago but I don’t believe this division is as strong now as it was then. Norwich won the league by five points two terms ago but the four sides who finished immediately behind them will all be playing Premier League football this season, with Derby County who were sixth a much weaker prospect this term but who would still have 20 points to find on them. Of the rest only really Brentford have improved significantly and I’ve already said I don’t like them. Unless there is a sudden mass exodus before the window closes, Norwich look hard to oppose.
Promotion Betting
One of the stories of this season will be the race for promotion. Even if you think the relegated three will all rebound and make the top six, and I’m far from convinced that will be the case, it leaves three places in the top six at the very least that is up for grabs so it is always worth chancing your arm that you get a side that finishes in that position and I’ll go with a couple. I’ve a feeling that Michael O’Neill might get the right tune out of Stoke City. They’ve been a mess for far too long but they finished last season well which suggests the tide might be turning at the Bet365 Stadium. They finished the campaign with four wins and a draw from their last six with their only defeat in that time being against the champions Leeds which isn’t a killer. Steven Fletcher is a goalscorer who fits into the style of O’Neill while John Obi Mikel and James Chester bring plenty of experience. It is all set up for this to be the season the curve goes upwards for Stoke.
The other side I like in this market is Blackburn Rovers. I chanced my arm with this lot last season but they couldn’t quite get that consistency together to push for the top six despite dancing on the fringes of it for a lot of the campaign. There is no doubt that the injury to Bradley Dack significantly hurt their chances so having him back will be a massive boost for what is already a decent squad with the likes of Lewis Holtby and Adam Armstrong both very good for the level. Blackburn have improved season on season under Mowbray and the Dack return is likely to see that trend continue so it isn’t going to take a whole lot for them to be in the top six mix and if they get there they’ll be overpriced to go up.
Tips
WON – Back Norwich City to win Sky Bet Championship (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-3)
Back them here:
Back Stoke City to be promoted for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with BetVictor
Back them here:
Back Blackburn Rovers to be promoted for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 with Betfair
Back them here:
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