The Race to Dubai season ends this week with the DP World Tour Championship taking place out in Dubai. Credit really must go to everyone involved on the European Tour for getting a difficult campaign to this position in a week where we may be seeing the impact the new global outlook on the game is going to have given the strength of the field.
Jon Rahm won the season ending title last year but he is not flying over to defend the crown, understandably so given all the travel restrictions, so we will crown a new champion as the race to be European number one concludes.
Recent Winners
2019 – Jon Rahm
2018 – Danny Willett
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Henrik Stenson
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
2010 – Robert Karlsson
The Course
We are at the Jumeirah Golf Estates for the second week in a row this year but while those who teed it up last week took on the Fire Course, the field here go out and do battle with the Earth Course, the track that has staged this tournament since its exception. That means the track is known to the many players who have played it before. It is a par 72 which stretches to 7,675 yards which sounds extremely long but we are in the desert where the air is drier and the ball shoots further as a result.
The equation for the Earth Course is pretty simple. Given the very wide fairways it is simply give it a smack off the tee, walk after it, find it, hit it again into the vicinity of the greens and preferably on them, and then let the short game and touch go to work. This is a second shot golf course but with the wide fairways and relative lack of rough the longer hitters tend to be the ones who score better around here.
The Field
With it being the final tournament of 2020 on the European Tour not just the climax to the season, a very strong field has been assembled to come out to play. There is a decent prize pool on offer for everyone to have a go at and of course the Race to Dubai title and the European number one spot that comes with it. Patrick Reed currently heads the way in that and he is teeing it up here, as are the top nine in the rankings, each of whom have their eye on the big prize.
Of those who are not a strong factor in the chase for the Race to Dubai title we have former winners such as Danny Willett, Lee Westwood and Henrik Stenson in the field while players who have spent most of the season competing on the PGA Tour such as Viktor Hovland and Sungjae Im are also in the field here. There are also tee times for European Tour stalwarts such as Andy Sullivan, Ross Fisher, Ian Poulter and Bernd Wiesberger among many others.
Market Leaders
Patrick Reed heads the betting this week at 9/1 and that feels like a short price to me. I say that because he hasn’t played much in Europe this season but when he has he hasn’t exactly tore it up or anything like that. The other reason why I think it is a short price is there is the chance that the longer this tournament goes on the more he might be able to play for a place in the field that guarantees him the Race to Dubai title rather than actually win this event. Of course if you back him this week you need him to win this tournament not the Race to Dubai. I’m happy to pass him over.
Tyrrell Hatton is my idea of the winner this week but at 11/1 he is a little on the short side in a field of this quality. He is an excellent driver of the ball and his iron play and putting is up there with the best that Europe has to offer, as we saw back in October when he ran away with the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. That effort shows what he can do here as does a runner up finish in 2016 but his record since then on this course hasn’t been the best which is a bit of a concern. I would not be at all surprised if Hatton is lifting the trophy on Sunday but I can’t be backing him at this price.
The winner of the RSM Classic last week on the PGA Tour, Viktor Hovland, is a 12/1 third favourite alongside the man who is second on the Race to Dubai standings in Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood hasn’t won this year which is a concern at taking him at this sort of a price whereas Hovland won in America last week and has had to fly over here for his course debut. That doesn’t sound like the combination that is going to lift the trophy even though you could very well argue that his skill set does reflect nicely on the task at hand here.
Collin Morikawa is next in the betting at 14/1. Like Hovland he is also a debutant and you wouldn’t think he would be teeing it up here if he wasn’t in with a shout of winning the Race to Dubai, which he is after winning the USPGA Championship. There aren’t many better iron players in the world game than Morikawa so this test should really suit him but experience can be worth something around here. If the PGA Tour star was 20/1 I might have played the risk but not at this price.
Main Bets
Form could really play a part this week so I’m going with two players who have plenty of it in my three main bets. The first of those is Andy Sullivan who is back with a bounce in his step having won on the UK Swing earlier in the season. Statistically, Sullivan should be right at home here as he sits second on the Tour this season for strokes gained on approach and for strokes gained tee to green. He is also as high as seventh in Greens in Regulation and leads the stroke average on tour. As well as winning at Hanbury Manor, Sullivan has been third in the BMW PGA Championship, fourth in the British Masters and second last week where he opened with a 61 but got collared on the final day. Sullivan has plenty of desert form on his CV and as long as last week spurs him on to get revenge here I expect him to be right there once again.
The other player who statistically has to be taken is Martin Kaymer. There are plusses and minuses for Kaymer this week. The positives are very much how he is hitting the ball this season. Nobody on the European Tour betters him in strokes gained on approach and only Sullivan and Thomas Pieters better him in strokes gained from tee to green. Kaymer also sits eighth in greens in regulation too. They are all the positives, the negative is that he doesn’t seem to be the same player since he coughed away the Abu Dhabi Championship a few years ago but since the restart the German has been third in the UK Championship, second at Valderrama, tenth at Wentworth and fifth in Italy. He has played some great stuff this year. At some point it will all fall into place for Kaymer again and having won three times in nearby Abu Dhabi he looks primed for a top showing here.
The other main bet I like is a man I’ve been keen on for 12 months or more which is Victor Perez, a player who showed why I like him so much two starts ago in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. He finished second there where his long game strength really came to the fore. He is in this tournament for the second time having finished inside the top 20 and I’m expecting a much better showing from him here now that he has had the experience of the week and things. I’ve no doubt this talented Frenchman is a regular winner in waiting and a special player in the making. At 35/1 I can’t ignore his qualities this week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of outsiders as well. Jordan Smith has the sort of tee to green game that should have him in very good order this week. Nobody hits more greens on the European Tour than him in 2020 and that was evident last week where he hit more than 90% of the greens in the right number. He couldn’t hole a thing last week but if he can get the putter warmed up on a course that he has played well on in the past, then there is no reason why he won’t have a decent week to finish off the campaign. At the prices on offer I’m willing to take the chance that putter hots up this week.
JB Hansen tends to go well on courses where he can give the ball a bit of gravy off the tee and that is very much here. He has improved the rest of his game as well to the extent that as well as winning in Joburg a couple of weeks ago he was bang in the mix in the BMW PGA Championship as well before a poor final round proved to be his undoing. He was also going well at Leopard Creek the week after he won but the emotion of the week before got to him and he faded away over the weekend. The last eight first two rounds he has played in a tournament have seen him shoot in the 60s on seven occasions so if he can keep those starts up here and the week off has recharged the batteries there’s no reason why he can’t have a big run here.
Tips
Back A.Sullivan to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back V.Perez to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back J.Smith to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back JB.Hansen to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back M.Kaymer to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
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