The second leg of the Desert Swing on the European Tour takes place this week when another decent field turns out for the Dubai Desert Classic, a historic event which shapes a strong part of the campaign, despite not having Rolex Series luxuries like in Abu Dhabi a week ago.
Bryson DeChambeau enjoyed his time in this part of the world last year when he scooted off with the title and he is back looking to retain the crown. The change in the slot in the calendar for this event means it goes up alongside a good one in America but a decent field is still here.
Recent Winners
2019 – Bryson DeChambeau
2018 – Haotong Li
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Stephen Gallacher
2013 – Stephen Gallacher
2012 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
2010 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
The Course
We are back on the Majlis Course at the Emirates Golf Club this week. There was a couple of years when this track was renovated that the tournament was held elsewhere but in the main this has been the host course throughout. With a number of players being regulars in this tournament there is likely to be few surprises awaiting them.
The track is a par 72 which can stretch to 7,328 yards but once again we are in the dry air so the ball goes further than usual which means it really doesn’t play as long as that. An interesting topic this week appears to be that the rough is much thicker than in previous years and on a firm and fast golf course that could put a better premium on accuracy. If you look at the list of previous winners they are not necessarily the longest but they are all pure ball strikers in the long game department and there is probably something in that. The course is exposed to the elements this week which is another thing to bear in mind.
The Field
Many of the stars of Europe are in the field teeing it up this week including the newly crowned European number one Bernd Wiesberger, and the man he took that crown from in Tommy Fleetwood. Matt Fitzpatrick is another teeing it up while the likes of the defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen, Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia all add a serious level of quality to proceedings.
The Open champion Shane Lowry also tees it up this week as do some of the new brigade in the form of Victor Perez and Viktor Hovland. Last week’s winner in Abu Dhabi, Lee Westwood, will look to do the desert double while former champions Rafa Cabrera Bello, Haotong Li, Danny Willett, Alvaro Quiros and Stephen Gallacher are also back for another shot at this title.
Market Leaders
Tommy Fleetwood will start off as the 15/2 favourite to win the title for the first time. He flew home last week but couldn’t quite catch Westwood over the closing holes but the confidence he will have taken from that should stand him in good stead here and he has everything needed to tame this course, even though he is yet to win the event. The field just feels a little too strong to be backing anyone at 7.5/1 no matter how good Fleetwood is.
Louis Oosthuizen and Matthew Fitzpatrick come next in the betting at 12/1, both looking for their first Dubai Desert Classic title. Fitzpatrick was right in the mix at halfway last week and never really looked like ever winning the event while Oosthuizen has been in contention for the last two tournaments and hasn’t got over the line. Both could easily win this but they have been guilty of coughing up good opportunities in recent times so I’m happy enough to sit these out.
Henrik Stenson and Sergio Garcia follow them in the betting at 20/1. I have to say I like Garcia this week off the back of a very solid effort last week but he was 40/1 in Abu Dhabi and 20/1 here which is a little annoying. There is a lot to like about Stenson here too but while he has a good record around here he hasn’t yet won and that is a bit of a negative at the prices. I’ll swerve both this week. It is 25/1 bar that quintet.
Main Bets
Not for the first time in recent months my first main bet is going to be Victor Perez. We were on him last week and I felt like we deserved more than what we got from him given that he bogeyed the first three holes of the tournament and only ended up losing by two in the end. He flew home with a strong charge on Sunday last week which can only make him feel good. He is regularly among the leaders in the strokes gained off the tee stat which sounds like it is going to be important this week and we know he’s a decent putter. I remain convinced that Perez is going to be something special at this level and although he’s into 25/1 I’ll support him again.
Viktor Hovland caught my eye last week even though he missed the cut. Nobody hit more fairways than him in the opening two rounds but his putter was stone cold, something you wouldn’t expect from the classy Norwegian who has everything you need to succeed in this game. Although he missed the cut on level par last week, he still made four birdies and an eagle for the two rounds so if he can cut out the silly mistakes and the putting issues there is still a big week in him here. It sounds like you are going to have to find the fairways this week and given that he has got that particular box ticked I’ll chance my arm on him at 40s.
Outsiders
Spaniards tend to have a decent record here and my first two outsiders are from that part of the world. Adri Arnaus is renowned as a relentless ball striker from tee to green but he has shown in the past that he can mix it on the putting surfaces as well and if it all comes together this week he is certainly capable of being right in the mix. Ball striking off the tee will be such a big thing this week and given that is the strength of Arnaus he looks well worthy of support on a track which should really suit the Spaniard.
We saw a course specialist win on the PGA Tour last week and one in Hong Kong the week before so I’m going to take a couple of course specialists at big prices this week. Alvaro Quiros enjoys it here where his driving ability can come to the fore and when he is on song he can score very low in these conditions. It is clearly hit and miss whether he plays well or not these days but we’re getting bigger than 200/1 because of that. I’ll pay to see how he goes and I’ll do the same for the twice winner Stephen Gallacher. Gallacher won in India last year so he can still do it and few will have better memories of this place than him. His recent form is nothing to speak of but we only ned to look at the form of Andrew Landry heading into last week to know that sometimes it can be second best to positive memories. I’ll give Gallacher a shot here.
Tips
Back V.Perez to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back V.Hovland to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back A.Arnaus to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Gallacher to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back A.Quiros to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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