The PGA Tour moves from the desert up to San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open, the first really big event of the decade stateside, and one which could give us an early indication of what to expect in the majors later in the year.
Justin Rose showcased his credentials in this tournament 12 months ago when he landed the title and he’ll be out to keep hold of it on one of the iconic courses over in America. He’ll be up against a proper good field though.
Recent Winners
2019 – Justin Rose
2018 – Jason Day
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Brandt Snedeker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Scott Stallings
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bubba Watson
2010 – Ben Crane
The Courses
There are two tracks in play at Torrey Pines this week – the North Course and the South Course. The field will play a round on each course in the first 36 holes before those who make the cut descend on the monstrous South track for the final two rounds to determine the winner of what is a significant tournament.
The South Course is much tougher than the North. It is actually the longest track on the PGA Tour these days at a huge 7,765 yards for a par 72. That is going to take a whole lot of taming it has to be said. That means you have to take advantage of the round on the shorter North Course which measures just 7,256 yards but with dense rough on both tracks while length is an advantage, accuracy is still needed. The South is a former US Open course which highlights how difficult it is.
The Field
The best field for a regular PGA Tour event this season has been assembled here as a number of leading lights pit their wits on a really tough test. Rory McIlroy probably headlines the field although a certain Tiger Woods is teeing it up this week which immediately raises the profile of the competition. Jon Rahm and the defending champion Justin Rose are two other men who bring a top class level to the field.
Zander Schauffele will tee it up in what is a home game for him this week while there are also places in the field for the likes of Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed and the US Open champion Gary Woodland. Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im lead a strong international bracket into action this week with the likes of Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Phil Mickelson all in the field looking to revive their form.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the favourite to win the tournament this week and you can back him at 13/2 to land the title. This is his first start of 2020 and indeed the first time he has teed it up in a couple of months and I’ve read that he is using a new driver so they are both negatives and the price is certainly nothing to write home about given the strength in depth this field has, and the possible lottery nature of getting the right courses on the right days. He’s not for me at this price.
Jon Rahm won his first title here a couple of years ago so this is a place that holds great memories and the big Spaniard is a 15/2 second favourite to regain the crown. There is little not to like about Rahm other than his price. He is a regular contender whenever he tees it up these days and of course he has the length to tame even this beast. I just can’t be backing anyone at a single figure price this week though so he’s another one that I’ll swerve.
Tiger Woods won the last of his US Open’s here and is a regular winner at the track and The Masters champion will tee off as an 11/1 shot for glory this week. I completely understand why the bookmakers are taking no chances with him but the South Course is surely too long for a man who has undergone a bunch of back operations. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tiger plays four rounds here but others have to be at more of an advantage than he is.
Xander Schauffele tends to be very competitive in the bigger tournaments but surprisingly given that it is a home game for him in San Diego, his record in this event is average at best. You would think it would come good at some point and this might be the week it does but given his record 16/1 looks to be a little on the short side to me given who he is up against. It is 20/1 bar the named quartet this week.
Main Bets
The US Open champion Gary Woodland hasn’t won a title since winning at Pebble Beach but we’re in a similar part of the world here and I sense we might see something good from him this week. His record here is good without being spectacular but he is elevated in status now and these are the events he should be competing in. Woodland is long enough off the tee to tame both these courses and we’ve seen for a while now that all departments of his long game are in good order. Generally the winners on these tough courses are the ones who scramble pars. He is getting a lot better at that and if he has the game which won the US Open, and three top 10s this season suggest he isn’t struggling by any means, he should go close here.
Ryan Palmer is a man in form and he is another who has the ability off the tee both in accuracy and in length to give him a sizeable advantage over these courses. He has four successive top 20 finishes to his name including a top five at the Sony Open last time out so there is a lot to like about the Texan here. Not only is he hitting the ball really well from tee to green but he is putting nicely. Everything in his game looks to be working at the minute and he could sneak right into contention at a very solid price.
Outsiders
Keegan Bradley remains one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour and as such he should go well this week. I say that because he is a player who has won a major and I always like that sort of confidence behind a player around this track. Generally you only get top class winners in this event and although he has issues with how long it takes him to do everything, when he actually hits the ball he gets the job done. This is a place that bring his strengths to the fore so he looks to be a little overpriced to me.
I’ll also take a punt on Jhonattan Vegas coming good this week. To be fair I’m not sure he knows when he is going to play well so we have no chance but if it is this week then he is a big price. I sense the Venezuelan likes the stiffer tests. Generally these days they are the monster courses like this one which brings his driving ability to the fore. He’s anything but shabby in the other departments of the game either. We would obviously need him to limit the mistakes but at a massive three-figure price I’m prepared to pay and see how we get along.
Tips
Back G.Woodland to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Palmer to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back K.Bradley to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Vegas to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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