The last stop for the PGA Tour on the west coast sees the roadshow go back to the iconic Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. This tournament is an invitational event for the first time which means the field is reduced to 120 and it has attracted a serious cast list as a result.
JB Holmes waltzed off with the title on a rain soaked Riviera track last year and he is back to defend his crown. With no other major tournament going on this week all the focus will be on what is always one of the best events on any Tour calendar.
Recent Winners
2019 – JB Holmes
2018 – Bubba Watson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Bubba Watson
2015 – James Hahn
2014 – Bubba Watson
2013 – John Merrick
2012 – Bill Haas
2011 – Aaron Baddeley
2010 – Steve Stricker
The Course
Riviera Country Club is a course for the ages but it always generates a decent tournament. Don’t be swayed by the long hitters on the roll of honour because the course has been soaked in recent years due to bad weather but the one thing we shouldn’t ignore is the amount of Augusta specialists that are on there. This course plays very similar to that one with the only difference being the smaller greens on this Californian track.
The course, which will host the Olympics in eight years, is a par 71 which measures 7,322 yards and is very much a second shot golf course. You need good iron play into these greens and because they are small excellent scrambling and putting is also a necessity too. Given that there isn’t a lot of trouble off the tee the bigger hitters can let their driver go but you don’t need length over an excellent second shot and in game.
The Field
Nine of the top 10 in the world have accepted their invitations into the tournament. The only member of that club who isn’t in the field this week is Webb Simpson who usually takes this week off. It means that the new world number one Rory McIlroy is in the field along with Tiger Woods which immediately elevates this to the best tournament of the year so far without mentioning Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm.
Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Justin Rose all add the cherry on top of the icing on this field but the likes of Jason Day, three time champion Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson should all enjoy positive weeks. If that lot isn’t enough we have the resurgence of Jordan Spieth to keep an eye on as well as the likes of Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann and Matthew Wolff of the new brigade. Nick Taylor will be hoping to follow up his Pebble Beach success with another so quickly.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy appears here for the fourth time but he has never gone any better than fourth and this is a much better field in terms of depth and quality than we’ve had here recently so that is very much a concern. He was third at Torrey Pines though which isn’t the worst form guide in the world. I just wonder if all the attention around him getting back to world number one when he didn’t play will put a little bit of extra pressure on him to perform. Either way I’m not comfortable taking him, or anyone in this company, at 15/2.
Justin Thomas should have won here last year and he and Jon Rahm begin the week as 10/1 shots on the opening show. Thomas carded a four over 75 to miss out last year which isn’t ideal but it was his second top 10 in succession. Rahm was just inside the top 10 on debut 12 months ago and both arrive here on decent form, so the only thing not to really like is the price as you would need whichever one you back to win to get any significant joy and in this company that just can’t be guaranteed.
Dustin Johnson has six top four finishes around here and he is decent around Augusta too so he could be considered value at 14/1 but despite his runner up spot in Saudi Arabia recently, he hasn’t been pulling up too many trees. There is the argument that if all was perfect with his game he would be half the price he is with the record he has around here, but I don’t see anyone winning this week who isn’t flushing it and has all areas of his game in good order. I’ll swerve DJ but he is respected.
Tiger Woods doesn’t have much of a record here but he is an animal at Augusta where he is the current champion so he probably shouldn’t be written off completely at 16/1. You get the feeling that one of the reasons why he doesn’t have a great record here, aside from the fact he rarely enters, is that his focus is already leaning to Augusta and I’m not sure I could be backing a player who has his intentions elsewhere. It never surprises me when Tiger wins but others look better options.
Main Bets
I’ve been waiting for this week to come along for a while because we have my strongest fancy of the season so far and the fact that this is the only tournament going on I can load up accordingly. I’ll have two main bets but the pick of the two is without doubt Bubba Watson. He has won this tournament in 2014, 2016 and 2018 but only once, in 2014, did he arrive at Riviera in the form he is in right now having finished sixth at Torrey Pines and third in Phoenix. It is well known that Watson is a horses for courses man and when the course fits his eye he properly fancies the job and this has to be one of his best stops. He is also very good at Augusta and that is no fluke. At 22/1 he is my leading bet this week.
At double the price I can’t ignore a smaller bet on Marc Leishman, a man who was fourth here last year and fifth in 2016. To be fair he has an all or nothing record around here having missed the cut three other times in the last five years but he arrives here with a win at Torrey Pines under his belt and you don’t win there if you are not playing well. A feature of his play that week was his irons, short game and his clutch putting under pressure and those three things are the absolute keys this week. Leishman also goes well at Augusta so his record here is no fluke. He’s overpriced at 50/1.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of big priced outsiders at small stakes who could have a say in the overall picture. Bud Cauley is renowned as one of the best scramblers on Tour but if there is a weakness in his game it is off the tee. This track isn’t as demanding as some in that regard though but stick an iron in his hand and he often gains on the field so there is a chance he does a bit of damage this week. Cauley has a couple of top 10s on Tour this season in Houston and The American Express and sits fourth in scrambling which is no bad thing. At 150/1 he’s worth a sheckle or so to see how he goes.
The other outsider I like is Lanto Griffin. Debutants don’t always go well here but at 150/1 I’ll pay to see how he does. Regular readers will know I’ve been keen on Griffin since the beginning of the season and he won the Houston Open, a tournament that used to precede The Masters and was set up to mirror Augusta so that would suggest he has the credentials to go well here. He had been a bit quiet since that win, understandably given it was his first on Tour, but came back to life at Pebble Beach last week. That was encouraging enough to lure me into a bet on a man who is an excellent putter and decent into and around the greens.
Tips
Back B.Watson to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 3/10 stake at 23.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Griffin to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Leishman to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back B.Cauley to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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