The European Tour moves from Newcastle to Birmingham as the second leg of the UK Swing takes place this week when the Hero Open is played out at the Forest of Arden resort in Warwickshire. This is the second part of six tournaments in the UK.
Renato Paratore kicked the UK Swing into life with victory in the British Masters at Close House last week and he’ll be looking to back that up with a win here too. This is a new tournament made for this post-lockdown schedule so there is no defending champion.
The Course
We are on the Arden Course at the Forest of Arden Country Club this week. This course has hosted European Tour events in the past, notably the British Masters and the English Open. Past winners here include Darren Clarke and Thomas Bjorn but it is 15 years since the European Tour was here so we probably can’t read a whole lot into the past.
The course itself is a par 72 which measures just 6,958 yards so it certainly isn’t a monster although with a lot of rain in the week prior to the event it is likely to play its full yardage initially. This is a parkland course with water in play on the majority of the holes and some monster bunkers too. The landing areas off the tee are quite wide so the premium comes in the second shot and putting on these undulating greens.
The Field
With a WGC event in America this week and the first major of the year next week, the field for this tournament was never expected to be strong, and in fairness it isn’t. It does have the winners of the last two tournaments in it though in Renato Paratore and Joel Stalter. Joost Luiten, Andy Sullivan, Eddie Pepperell, Ryan Fox and Pablo Larrazabal are some of those regulars on the European Tour who are in action.
The new brigade are well represented this week with the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard and Sam Horsfield with tee times while there is also a tee time for Thorbjorn Olesen, who competes on the European Tour for the first time since last July as his court case for his rape charge has been delayed. Justin Harding and Thomas Detry add more flavour to what should be a competitive field even if it is one lacking some genuine star names.
Market Leaders
For the third week in four, Joost Luiten is the market leader this week. He is 14/1 to win the tournament and so far he has messed up the final round of the Austrian Open, shot a 10 on a par 5 in the third round of the Euram Bank Open and then took last week off. Whether he can be backed when he makes such costly mistakes remains to be seen. For all his usual tee to green strength, there is always a concern over his putting so there is enough to put me off here.
Thomas Detry missed the cut last week as a second favourite but that has not stopped the bookmakers from pricing him up at 18/1 and in that position in the market this week. He just doesn’t do enough to justify backing him in my eyes. He is far too inconsistent and even when he isn’t there are no tell-tale signs to me of the sort of tracks that his strengths can play to. I don’t think there is any doubting the talent of Detry but we want results and they don’t come regularly enough to get involved at this price.
Andy Sullivan kept himself busy during lockdown by playing a number of the minor events that were doing the rounds and that served him well at Close House last week as he finished fourth on -13. He begins this week as a 20/1 shot and was third in the field last week on strokes gained on approach, which should be a key statistic around here. Sullivan has been grinding back to his best form over the last 12 months and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he goes in at some point in this UK swing. Being from around this neck of the woods it could be here but at 20/1 his price is tight enough.
There are a quartet of players who are 25/1 this week. They are Justin Harding, Eddie Pepperell, Rasmus Hojgaard and Ryan Fox. I’ll come onto the credentials of Harding shortly, while Pepperell just looked to be a bit angry with his game last week. His game departed during the fourth round and I’m not sure that will do his confidence any good. I’ve a feeling long hitters will enjoy this week so other than preference for other big hitters, there is no reason to leave Hojgaard or Fox out of the staking plan, although their price could be described as skinny.
Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week with the first of them being the South African player Justin Harding, who should like the conditions he will get here. Harding was very good throughout the bag last week, ranking sixth in strokes gained tee to green and on approach and inside the top 25 off the tee and putting. He did one of those mid-round interviews during last week where he said he was signed up for the six events and is looking forward to playing a batch of golf. That suggested to me that last week was designed to shake the rust off so he should fancy his chances here. Harding won the Qatar Masters last year so he has a win at this level and has form at other exposed tracks. He looks like a huge chance here.
A lot was made of the recent heavy scoring by Sam Horsfield after he shot 61 in the third round last week and although his Saturday didn’t go as well, conditions were a bit tougher for that final round. They are not going to be this week though. The course is likely to start off soft which will suit Horsfield as a big hitter and with a heatwave passing through on Friday and Saturday, it should dry out nicely for the likes of Horsfield to use the firmness to really get at this course. Horsfield shot a 59 out in the States during lockdown and 61 last week so when conditions are calm he can really thrive. It is this kind of course he can do that on so he’s my other main bet.
Outsiders
I’ll throw a couple of quid at a pair of outsiders as well with the first of them being Nicolas Colsaerts, who in this company could be overpriced at 80/1 when you consider it was only nine months ago he was winning the Open de France on a tough Le Golf National track in Paris. There are similarities with that course and this with the open landing spots off the fairways and the danger of water and sand around the place. This track might suit Colsaerts even more with his power off the tee though. It means he’ll be hitting shorter irons into the greens and if his putter gets working from the get go he could more than outperform his price.
My final pick will be Matthew Southgate, a player who finished down the field last week but who was in the top 20 for strokes gained off the tee and on approach so it was only his short game and putting that let him down. I always prefer it when that is the case with a player as usually a bit of time on the practice green can sort out the putting a lot easier than time on the range sorts out any kinks in the long game. Southgate has plenty of form on links and exposed tracks so if he can get the ball rolling nicely from the putter he could be in for a big week at 125/1.
Tips
Back J.Harding to win Hero Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
WON – Back S.Horsfield to win Hero Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back N.Colsaerts to win Hero Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Southgate to win Hero Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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