The European Tour leaves Britain again this week to head to the continent for the Italian Open. In recent seasons we would have been looking forward to a Rolex Series event here but these changing times have seen this tournament reduced to a regular one and the field in Brescia reflects that.
Despite that the current champion Bernd Wiesberger is here to defend his title which he will do against a much weaker field than he beat last year. Although the field lacks depth in star quality there is a competitive look to it.
Recent Winners
2019 – Bernd Wiesberger
2018 – Thorbjorn Olesen
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Francesco Molinari
2015 – Rikard Karlberg
2014 – Hennie Otto
2013 – Julien Quesne
2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
2011 – Robert Rock
2010 – Fredrik Andersson Hed
The Course
We are at the Cherva Golf Club in Brescia this week. Usually this tournament would take place on some of the finest tracks in Italy each or which are a rest test of a golfer’s driving ability but golf is still having to operate in bubbles so instead we are at a hotel based course which like many we’ve seen before it since the restart is wide open off the tee with large greens and the opportunity for the power players to flex their muscles once again.
The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7.434 yards and at this time of year it is likely to play every one of those yards. The four par 5s all seem reachable although two of the greens are well guarded so I’m getting the impression that just like on much of the UK Swing we are looking for power players who can get it out there and go on the attack. Low scoring is going to be required this week so keep out of form players off the shortlist.
The Field
After a couple of Rolex Series events and another decent tournament on the Scottish Links the field this week isn’t that great. The thoughts of the bigger players are beginning to head towards Augusta next month but there are two standout players in the field, them being the runner up from last week in Matt Wallace and the former major champion Martin Kaymer. Wentworth runner up Victor Perez is also in the field as well.
In the main this looks like a week for the rising stars of the European Tour with the likes of Wilco Nienaber, Adri Arnaus, Jordan Smith and Matthias Schwab all eyeing up big weeks but veteran players Lee Westwood and the defending champion Bernd Wiesberger will be out to show them who still holds the aces at this level. British Masters champion Renato Paratore and Scottish Championship winner Adrian Otaegui are both here looking for quick second successes for the season.
Market Leaders
For the second week in succession Matt Wallace is the favourite to win the tournament. It is probably a sign of the weaker field this week that he is a shorter price at 10/1 than he was last week. Anyone who watched him in the final round in Scotland last week will not be rushing to back him here I think it is fair to say. Yes Adrian Otaegui threw a 63 at him in the final round but Wallace offered him all the encouragement he needed to come through and deliver the goods with a shocking front nine on Sunday and a not much better back nine. Just on the back of that he is of no interest to me here.
Martin Kaymer will go off as a joint 12/1 second favourite with Victor Perez. I have a few issues with Kaymer here. The first one is that he hasn’t won since the US Open in 2014 and he went past being expensive to follow a few years ago. I don’t think he’s ever recovered from blowing a huge lead in Abu Dhabi a couple of years back when yep you guessed it my money was on! The other issue is length – or a lack of it. The German isn’t for me. I’m a massive Victor Perez fan and he probably should lead this lot a merry dance on this track but I can’t back him at 12/1.
Defending champion Bernd Wiesberger is next in the betting to retain his title at 16/1. He is obviously defending it on a different course to the one which he won it on which is never ideal and in truth there haven’t been many signs in the game of the Austrian that he is about to burst into life and come through and win. His class might keep him in the mix but I sense he isn’t enjoying behind closed doors golf and so he isn’t for me.
Lee Westwood is the other player shorter than 20/1 in the field. He is 18/1 to win the title this week and if you look at his results recently you will see a consistent stream of top 20 finishes but don’t be fooled by that. He isn’t playing as well as that and is working on things in his game which is never a situation to be pouring money on at these kind of prices. Westwood might be best saved for next year when a bit of normality returns to the world and we get back to more challenging layouts. It is 25/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
Adri Arnaus has been a winner in waiting on the European Tour ever since he arrived on the scene last year and I think this can be his week. I usually like to look a couple of weeks ahead when I’m watching golf so I can form an early shortlist of players to keep an eye on and while I was watching the BMW PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago I marked Victor Perez and Arnaus down in big letters to look at here. Perez is too short to back but Arnaus at double the price stands out. He’s one of the longer hitters on the European Tour and led after 18 holes at Wentworth. He fell away over the last 25 holes there but he wouldn’t be the first maiden to find the going a little tough in that company and he won’t be the last one either. He looks to have the perfect game for this track though with his length and his touch on and around the greens. He saw his Spanish compatriot win last week and often the Spanish inspire each other. I think Arnaus is a major player here.
The other player I like from a main bet point of view this week is the young Austrian player Matthias Schwab. Schwab needs no invitation to go low and he is another of the young breed of player who can get it out there. There isn’t actually a weakness in his game. He goes into this tournament under the radar a little as he has spent most of his time since the restart out in America, where he finished third in the Barracuda Championship which was no mean effort. I expect him to be full of confidence at this level after going very well on the PGA Tour. This course sets up very well for him and I expect a very strong showing from a man who had six top five finishes on this tour last season, including in this event. He looks a very good bet at 28/1.
Outsiders
I’ll take three outsiders this week with the first of those coming in the form of Wil Besseling, a Dutch player who gets it out there off the tee and who has seemed to enjoy setups like this since the tour restarted. He was third in Austria and T11 in Wales and then third again at Valderrama and I always say if you play well there you can play well anywhere. He was also in the top 15 in Portugal which probably bodes well for him here. In fact, nobody on the European Tour gains more strokes than him off the tee this season and although this isn’t the toughest test off the back boxes whenever you are gaining on the field it is no bad thing. Clearly judging by his results the rest of the Besseling game isn’t in bad order either and he merits respect this week.
You have to catch Dean Burmester on the right week but I’m prepared to see if this is one he’ll shine. He has some form over these hotel layouts in the UK Swing where he was sixth in the English Championship on a similar course to this one and then just outside the top 20 at Celtic Manor. He was also bang in the mix in Ireland until he blew up on the Sunday. That is a concern it has to be said but there were plenty of tests on that track which just don’t exist here. Burmester can use his extreme length off the tee to his advantage here and on these huge greens the man ranked second for strokes gained putting on the tour must have plenty going for him over the course of this week. If the South African is going to win again soon it is likely to be on a course like this.
Finally I can’t resist a punt at a monster price on Kristoffer Reitan, a player who is way down the betting but who can smack a long ball and showed one or two signs of life in Scotland last week. This tournament is unlikely to take much winning and someone who can belt it a country mile and who shot a 64 in the second round last week has to be worth a few coins. The Norwegian was just outside the top 20 in Portugal last year and inside the top 15 on courses which are wide open and long like this one. If that second round last week has seen his game click we could get a big run at a monster price here.
Tips
Back M.Schwab to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back K.Reitan to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back A.Arnaus to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back W.Besseling to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back D.Burmester to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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