The group phase of the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals concludes on Friday when the last four round robin matches take place inside the o2 Arena and the last two places in the semi-finals are won and lost.
We already know that Daniil Medvedev will face Rafael Nadal in one of the singles semi-finals and on Friday we will get to know the opponent for Dominic Thiem in the last four on Saturday. There is also another place in the doubles semi-finals to be earned on what should be a cracking day of tennis.
Afternoon Session
Mate Pavic & Bruno Soares vs John Peers & Michael Venus
The opening doubles match of the day will either make the picture clearer in the Bob Bryan Group or complicate it completely as the top seeds Mate Pavic and Bruno Soares go up against the as yet winless John Peers and Michael Venus.
A win for Pavic and Soares will officially eliminate the Australasian pairing from the tournament but if Peers and Venus can win this match in straight sets then they are through to the semi-final if the later result goes their way. I hate betting on matches like this where the first set can mean everything. If Pavic and Soares get it Peers and Venus are out and you’d think their intensity will disappear. Luckily I’m on Pavic and Soares to win the tournament so them winning here is still of interest to me. I’ll settle for that as my only focus on the match.
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev
The singles match in the afternoon session is thankfully a lot more clear cut than the doubles of earlier in the day. Novak Djokovic takes on Alexander Zverev in what is effectively a quarter final in everything but name with the winner going through to face Dominic Thiem in the semi-final and the loser going home.
Both men have beaten Diego Schwartzman in this tournament and both have lost to Daniil Medvedev with the only difference in their records being that it took Zverev three sets to win his match while Djokovic did it much more convincingly. These two have met five times with Djokovic having three wins to the two of Zverev. All five matches have been very one-sided with the quirk being that Zverev’s two wins coming in finals, including here in 2018. I can’t be backing Zverev with the way his second serve is behaving but the fact he has shown the potential to wipe the floor with Djokovic makes the 3.5 game handicap feel a little high. I’ll sit this one out too.
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Evening Session
Marcel Granollers & Horacio Zeballos vs Jurgen Melzer & Edouard Roger-Vasselin
The final doubles match of the group phase of the tournament could either be near enough a dead rubber by the time it gets going or it could have everything on the line as the currently undefeated Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos take on Jurgen Melzer and Edouard Roger-Vasselin.
In essence this is a dead rubber for the Spanish-Argentine pairing but they have been so good this week that I feel compelled to back them anyway. I say that because only Melzer and ER-V will know how they won their previous match when they were match point down in the second set and 9-6 down in the match tiebreak. I don’t want to suggest Peers and Venus choked but it was along those lines. I don’t see that happening with Granollers and Zeballos. I think they’ll want to win here and win quickly and that’s exactly what I expect them to do.
Daniil Medvedev vs Diego Schwartzman
The last of the group matches in the tournament sees Daniil Medvedev taking on Diego Schwartzman in what is nothing less than a dead rubber with the Russian knowing that he is going to be facing Rafael Nadal in the semi-final on Saturday evening and the Argentine knowing that his season is done after this match.
We saw with Dominic Thiem on Thursday that it is not easy playing these dead rubbers and you would think win or lose Medvedev will want in and out as quickly as possible given that he has a date with Nadal 24hrs after this match is due to begin. Schwartzman has the longevity to make life awkward for him but the 4-0 head to head lead for Medvedev, including a towelling at the Paris Masters a couple of weeks ago suggest this should be an easy night for the Russian, if he can motivate himself to perform and not save his best for Saturday. That potential is a possibility though so I can’t bet on this one.
Tips
VOID – Back M.Granollers & H.Zeballos (-1.5 games) to beat J.Melzer & E.Roger-Vasselin for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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