The opening round of the Scottish Open takes place at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick on Thursday, as the latest Rolex Series event gets underway with the players getting to taste the changes to the course for the first time from a competitive standpoint.
This is the biggest European Tour event since lockdown and there are riches available this week that can make careers for many of those who are teeing it up. For the more established ones it is another chance for the many benefits that come along with going well in these events.
First Round Leader
It has been more than seven months since the last Rolex Series event but we cover them in full on this site and that means getting stuck into the first round leader market. As always we have to look at the format of the tournament before we get stuck into this market. It is wise to do that because for the first time since lockdown we have a two-tee start and a morning and an afternoon wave which means we can then bring the weather into account to get rid of half the field. That is because when you look at the weather you see that the wind and the rain is around in the morning but from around 11am onwards the wind dies and it warms up a touch so the ball will go further through the air. That means we should focus on the afternoon wave.
I’ll take a stab at a couple of players. Andy Sullivan shot 64 around here in the first round last year which incredibly wasn’t enough to lead the tournament but that came in a period where Sullivan was playing some pretty ordinary golf. That has all changed this year. Forget the fact that he has won a tournament, which in itself is a big thing, but until the recent Andalucia Masters every opening round Sullivan had shot this year was under par. That’s a really good record. Four of those rounds were 66 so fast starts aren’t beyond him. At 45/1 he’ll be my first bet.
The second bet I’ll take a chance on is the man who shared the lead in Ireland last week in Dean Burmester. The South African goes off at 13.22 BST which should be a perfect time to go out in terms of the weather. If this course becomes a little softer from the early morning rain it could be there for a big hitter to overpower it and Burmester is certainly one of those. He is among the longest on the tour but what has caught my eye is he leads the tour in strokes gained putting. Burmester is hit and miss in the opening round but when it clicks it really clicks as evidenced with his 65 last week which included a double bogey, and a couple of 66s earlier in the year. I’m not sure Burmester will stay the distance this week but his last two opening rounds in this were 68 and 69. He gets going quick and looks a big price to lead the way here.
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Thursday 3 Balls
As is tradition in these full field tournaments, the players go out in groups of three in the opening round with the groups going off on the first and the tenth tee in a bid to get everyone around before the darkness sets in. This is a Rolex Series event so all of the three balls have been priced up. As with all split draw tournaments we have marquee groupings in the morning and the afternoon.
In the morning the headline attractions are the groups featuring Matt Wallace, Thomas Pieters and Marc Warren. They go off at 7.57 BST while 22 minutes later Padraig Harrington is out alongside Sam Horsfield and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Moving into the afternoon wave and the two standout groups are the ones that feature Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood and Rasmus Hojgaard. They go off at 12.27 and then 11 minutes after that the group of Tommy Fleetwood, Bernd Wiesberger and Robert MacIntyre tee off. I like bets in two other groups though.
Jason Scrivener/Ryan Fox/Jazz Janewattananond
Match tees off at 09.03 BST
We have an international grouping off the tenth tee on Thursday morning and it features the man who was in with every chance of winning the Irish Open last week in Jazz Janewattananond, the New Zealand player Ryan Fox and the Australian golfer Jason Scrivener.
Based on last week you would think that the Thai star Janewattananond would be the one to beat but his tee to green game last week wasn’t as strong as I would have liked it and it remains to be seen whether he adapts to links golf. My feeling is that this is between the antipodean pair who will be used to this sort of golf. Ryan Fox should have won in Ireland a couple of years ago but when he is wayward off the tee it can be pretty wayward so I’m going to side with the straight hitter in Scrivener, a player who is perfectly adept in the wind and whose all round game looks in tune with the test here. Fox is respected but with this group being out when the wind and rain is around my preference is for Scrivener.
Ewen Ferguson/Benjamin Hebert/Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Match tees off at 13.22 BST
The third to last group off the first tee on Thursday sees the home player Ewen Ferguson out alongside the French player Benjamin Hebert and the South African star Christiaan Bezuidenhout with all three likely to like their chances this week.
When you think Bezuidenhout won at Valderrama his prowess off the tee needs no introduction but his form in recent times has gone missing and that is a big concern. Ferguson has to be respected in home conditions but this is a level above your regular European Tour event so it might be a little too soon in his career for him. Hebert was only beaten in a play-off here last year and has already gone well in Mauritius and Qatar this year where the wind blows. The wind isn’t likely to get up too much in the afternoon when these guys are out on the course so it might be that the best statistic to use is form and the third placed finish of Hebert at The Belfry stands up to anything recently. I think he is the one to be with in this three ball.
Tips
Back A.Sullivan First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back D.Burmester First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back J.Scrivener to beat R.Fox & J.Janewattananond for a 3/10 stake at 2.88 with Coral
Back him here:
Back B.Hebert to beat E.Ferguson & C.Bezuidenhout for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with BetVictor
Back him here:
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