The European Tour heads back to the British Isles this week for the second Rolex Series event of the year, the Scottish Open, a tournament that usually gets the slot before The Open in July but as we all know very little is usual about the sporting year so it moves to this October slot.
Bernd Wiesberger warmed up for Portrush perfectly last year when he won the title and he is back to attempt to defend it against what is the strongest field we’ve had for a European Tour event since lockdown.
Recent Winners
2019 – Bernd Wiesberger
2018 – Brandon Stone
2017 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Justin Rose
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Jeev Milkha Singh
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Edoardo Molinari
The Course
Quite often this tournament rotates courses year on year but once again with all the sanctions in place in the world there were fewer options for a host so the tournament remains at the Renaissance Club for the second year in a row. The first thing to point out is that this is a links course which is exposed to the wind and there is forecast to be a lot of that as the week goes on so drop anyone who isn’t comfortable in the wind from your shortlist.
Power tended to be the overriding need last year but I’ve seen a few comments on Twitter that the rough is up and the greens are firm, a little bit like in Northern Ireland last week, therefore there is likely to be much more of a premium on accuracy. Just how firm the greens can be with the forecasted winds remain to be seen but the course is a par 71 which measures just 7,293 yards so the shorter hitters can certainly get round here especially at this time of year.
The Field
Many of the stars of Europe are over for this tournament which is no surprise given the riches that are on offer both here and at Wentworth next week. That means we have previous Rolex Series event winners in the field such as Tommy Fleetwood, Thorbjorn Olesen, Lee Westwood, Danny Willett and the defending champion Bernd Wiesberger. Big names who don’t have a Rolex event to their name teeing it up here include Matthew Fitzpatrick, Thomas Pieters and Matt Wallace.
Brandon Stone is a former winner of this tournament who has a tee time while the likes of Martin Kaymer, Erik van Rooyen, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Thomas Detry are just some of the names towards the front of the market. Plenty of recent winners are in the field including the winner last week in John Catlin, UK Swing winners Renato Paratore, Sam Horsfield, Andy Sullivan, Rasmus Hojgaard and Romain Langasque. Victor Perez won the Dunhill Links last year and goes for a double 12 months on.
Market Leaders
Tommy Fleetwood hasn’t been pulling up any trees in America since lockdown but the one time he teed it up in a regular European Tour event he probably should have won it in Portugal which suggests that he remains a cut above this level even if he isn’t getting it done across the pond at the minute. With that in mind he looks a worthy 11/1 favourite this week although whether you want to take a relatively tight price in a week which might be dictated by the weather gods is a different thing. Fleetwood is one of the better players in the wind though which helps.
Matthew Fitzpatrick is a regular winner of the European Tour but it is a massive surprise and negative that he has never landed a Rolex Series event. When you think throughout their existence these Rolex events have generally been in the UK, Dubai, Italy, Turkey and South Africa – all places which should suit Fitzpatrick, it is crazy that he hasn’t won one. I’m not convinced links golf is his forte but you have to recognise the undoubted quality that he has. If hitting fairways and greens is the exam this week he’s likely to provide an A+ showing at 12/1.
Thomas Pieters and Bernd Wiesberger are the third favourites for the tournament at 22/1. We know all about Wiesberger and his credentials around here but I wasn’t overly impressed with the way he faded in contention at The Belfry recently, especially as he was carrying my money that week. This sounds like a much tougher examination than the one he won on last year and the Ladies Scottish Open would seem to acknowledge that with -20 winning last year and -5 being the winning score this year. Both events were held here. I suspect this is more a test of accuracy than length and while Thomas Pieters looks to be rounding into form this might not be the week his strengths are best utilised.
Matt Wallace and Martin Kaymer are another two players who it is a massive surprise don’t have a Rolex title to their name but that could easily change this week as they remain among the best in Europe. Kaymer is a former Dunhill Links winner so we know he can play links golf and we saw at Valderrama that he is coming into form. I still have concerns over him in contention but that’s his only negative. Wallace is one to watch but I suspect next week will be where he is stronger. At 25/1 though both will appeal.
Main Bets
Erik van Rooyen is the first of two main bets for me this week. The South African has some decent enough form figures on both links courses in this part of the world and in Ireland, and in exposed tracks across the world. He was the 54 hole leader here last year but a poor final round saw him disappear from contention, as it did in Ireland a couple of years ago when he bungled the 54 hole lead to finish fourth. I never used to have any confidence at all in him in contention but that all changed when he won the Scandinavian Invitational last season on a course that is exposed to the elements much like this one and is undulating where shot shaping is key, another trait of Renaissance this week. The South African has had a quiet season so far but top 25s in both the WGCs and the US Open are very creditable efforts and on those showings he should be a major player here in conditions that won’t sway him.
Romain Langasque was third here last year which was his best effort in a links event and that is a little surprising because he won the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie a few years ago and only the best ball strikers win around there. He does seem to be coming to the boil over the last couple of seasons though and that culminated in his maiden win at Celtic Manor last month. He won the week the conditions were tough so that is very much a positive for this week and he should be expected to win a lot more. Since he won in Wales he has put up creditable showings at Valderrama and in the US Open so he looks to have carried on his good form. Langasque sits in the top 25 in strokes gained from tee to green which feels like a big thing this week. Given that we saw he can handle these greens last year he feels a big price around 40/1.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week. The first of those is the man who has already won on the European Tour in his rookie season in Sami Valimaki, the Oman Open winner. That win doesn’t really offer up a form guide for here but what it does show is that he has hit the ground running at this level. What interested me more was his two performances in Wales during the UK Swing where he finished sixth and second, the latter in some pretty awful conditions as highlighted above. The Finn is improving all the time off the tee and into the greens, not that he is ranked anywhere near the worst in either discipline, and he is sitting fourth in strokes gained putting this season. Putting is always high up on the list of requirements on a windy links course. He’s shown enough all year to suggest he has a chance here at 80/1.
Matthew Southgate loves links golf. I don’t think that is a surprise to anyone and as a result I don’t think it is much of a surprise that he’s one of my outsider bets this week. Usually I like a bit of form or statistics that matter when taking a bet but I’ve always said you either love links golf or you don’t so it is very much an overriding positive that Southgate enjoys this sort of challenge. That is borne out when you look at his links results with a couple of top four finishes in Ireland, a second placed spot in the Dunhill Links last year and some creditable efforts in things like the Scandinavian event and in this a couple of years ago just down the road at Gullane. He also has a couple of top 15 finishes in The Open too which highlights what I’ve been saying. I noticed that on the final day in Ireland last week he carded a 66 so if he can take that ball striking to here he would look to have every chance.
I’ll stick to my thinking that links golf is different to everything else and you either like the challenge it brings or you don’t and take a player who actually has a links win to his name in Marcus Kinhult. The Swede won the British Masters at Hillside last year when Tommy Fleetwood hosted it and given that he is one of the better putters on the European Tour we probably shouldn’t be too surprised at that. You’d look at his form this year and say he is having an average year but I note his top 10 in Qatar where the wind blows and although it wasn’t windy at the Belfry where he came T13 it certainly was at the Wales Open where he was T15. There’s enough in the form of Kinhult to suggest that his win at Hillside wasn’t a freak and that he likes this test. He also has good form on a number of courses where keeping it in play is key. He’s another big price if it comes together this week.
Tips
PLACED – Back E.van Rooyen to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Langasque to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back M.Kinhult to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Valimaki to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Southgate to win Scottish Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
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