The popular Florida Swing kicks off on the PGA Tour this week and as always it does so with The Honda Classic, one of the best tournaments to watch on the entire calendar on a golf course that presents a genuine test.
Keith Mitchell had the week of his life here last year walking off with the title and he will be looking to keep hold of it over these four days. The field he is up against is not the strongest ever assembled here which could give him some confidence.
Recent Winners
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 – Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
2013 – Michael Thompson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Rory Sabbatini
2010 – Camilo Villegas
The Course
We are at the PGA National as ever this week. This is renowned for being one of the toughest par 70s on the circuit and that is proven by the winning score often being in single digits, which doesn’t happen very often on the PGA Tour these days. The trickiness comes in the form of the ‘Bear Trap’ which is the three holes 15-17 where the water is heavily in play and nerves are likely to be jangling.
You have to strike the ball well around here. Length can come in handy but it doesn’t take priority over accuracy. There is an exposed element to this track so being able to handle the wind is another requisite and as with all tough courses scrambling abilities are essential. You need to play this course from the fairway with pinpoint iron shots and a decent putter the way forward. It is a true all-round test.
The Field
Much like the Oman Open over on the European Tour, the field here at The Honda Classic has taken a hit because of its place in the calendar. There was a WGC event last week and The Players is only two weeks away so something had to give. This is it for most and as such Brooks Koepka is the only member of the top 10 in the world who are teeing it up this week.
There are a few other notables in the field too. Former champion Rickie Fowler is here while Justin Rose is another one teeing it up this week. Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen and Florida specialists Billy Horschel and Daniel Berger are also in the field. US Open champion Gary Woodland is another man with a tee time, as is The Open winner Shane Lowry. Last week’s winner Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im and Joaquin Niemann lead up the young brigade.
Market Leaders
Tommy Fleetwood and Brooks Koepka are the 12/1 joint favourites this week. Fleetwood had a decent spin on debut here two years ago and went pretty well in Mexico last week while Koepka was a shot off a playoff around here last year. I always worry about Koepka away from the majors but this test is that strong that it feels like a major. More of a concern with Koepka is his recent form, which puts me off him. Fleetwood just feels a little short at the minute.
Rickie Fowler has won around here and at 14/1 I’m sure he will be popular with plenty, but that is the kind of price he needs to be winning to get any proper return and he doesn’t win anywhere near as much as he should do. He comes here off the back of a break which is a positive but with bigger events to come he might need the spin. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fowler wins having won here before but I’ll let him win if he is good enough.
US Open champion Gary Woodland is a 22/1 shot to land this title for the first time. I’ll go deeper into his chances below but he arrives in Florida with a leading chance after a decent spin in Mexico last week and with big tournaments to come you would think Woodland is going to come into his own over the next six weeks or so.
Justin Rose, Billy Horschel and Louis Oosthuizen are all next in the betting at 25/1. Horschel has a great record around here and certainly can’t be ruled out. Rose has all the credentials to go deep in this tournament but he’s using new bats this year and his form in recent times has been questionable to say the least. I’m not interested in him. Oosthuizen appeals but I always prefer him at bigger prices when the spotlight is on others.
Main Bets
Gary Woodland is the first of two main bets this week. He has an excellent record here having made the cut on all seven visits and he was tied second behind Rickie Fowler in 2017. He sits just outside the top 10 in greens in regulation and he is in the top five in bogey avoidance. The latter is certainly no surprise because he has a decent short game now, as he showed at the US Open. Woodland is a crisp ball striker who should be right in the mix around here so he’s my first main bet.
The other one is Sungjae Im. The Korean has gone quiet in recent weeks but I’ve seen many a player struggle over the tough Californian tracks especially those tournaments which are absolute shootouts, and then come good when we get back to Florida and fields with lesser quality. Im is a quality operator who had a decent short game and is one of the best into the greens on the entire tour. If he gets some putts to drop he’ll go very well and it might be that recent form has just lowered the expectation enough for him to let his best golf come out.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week. The first of those is Russell Knox who looks to have a decent game for this track. He is a steady plodder sort and that is never a bad thing on this course. Knox is excellent at scrambling and we know whatever the wind does will not affect him. He is very solid from tee to green and isn’t the worst putter in the world so he should be looking forward to reaching this part of Florida once again. Knox has two top three finishes on this course and has been going along ok in recent weeks. He’s overpriced for a challenge here.
Vaughn Taylor is one of the best on the PGA Tour when it comes to playing par 3s and that will certainly help him when it comes to taming the ‘Bear Trap’. Taylor hits the ball crisply too which I always think is key around here and he doesn’t have the worst short game either. He went into those big Californian events in decent form and although he wasn’t always convincing the longer they went on, this is a different ball game in Florida. There is enough to think that Taylor has the tools to be in the mix on a course that should suit.
Danny Lee tends to do a lot of his best work in Florida and he is another who plays the par 3s well enough to make me think he can have a decent spin here. To be fair Lee has underachieved on this course because he strikes the ball so well and given that he sits fourth in par 3 scoring on the Tour this season and that he has a pretty good short game to go with his ball striking he should go well here. Lee won’t be that competitive in the shootouts but these testier tracks can see him right in the mix. I’ll pay to see at a big price.
Tips
PLACED – Back G.Woodland to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
WON – Back S.Im to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back D.Lee to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Knox to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back V.Taylor to win The Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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