The PGA Tour moves across to Arizona this week as ever when it is Super Bowl weekend, as the Waste Management Phoenix Open is staged at the iconic TPC Scottsdale, an event which is the most attended in golf and has the loudest hole in the sport.
Rickie Fowler was a popular winner of the tournament 12 months ago and he is back looking to retain the title, but as always in this event a top quality field has been put together to take him on, with many capable of winning this.
Recent Winners
2019 – Rickie Fowler
2018 – Gary Woodland
2017 – Hideki Matsuyama
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama
2015 – Brooks Koepka
2014 – Kevin Stadler
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Kyle Stanley
2011 – Mark Wilson
2010 – Hunter Mahan
The Course
All golf fans will know all about TPC Scottsdale and plenty who aren’t big supporters of the sport will do too with the famous 16th hole. This isn’t a long course by any stretch of the imagination. It is a par 71 but it only measures 7,261 yards which with the dry desert air makes it a relatively short course. There was a redesign of the track in 2015 and since then it has been the longer hitters who’ve held sway in the main.
Although there isn’t a huge challenge off the tee here you do need to drive the ball well because the desert areas aren’t fun but generally this is a test of approach into the large greens and then putting on them. Since the refurb only top drawer winners have been produced so this might not be an event for the rookies or those not accustomed with winning.
The Field
Some big appearance money has sent a lot of leading players off to Saudi Arabia this week but the lure of this tournament has still got some stars of the game to Phoenix. Jon Rahm heads up the field but from a home standpoint, the likes of Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Rickie Fowler and Tony Finau are all pretty big names who’ll be looking to secure what is becoming a coveted title at this time of the year.
Hideki Matsuyama is twice a winner here and will be wanting to extend that record with a good week while other top drawer players with a tee time include Xander Schauffele, Gary Woodland, Bubba Watson, Bryson DeChambeau and Matt Kuchar. Brandt Snedeker, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa and The American Express champion Andrew Landry are some of the other notables in the field.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm heads into the tournament as the favourite to win it but whether there is much in the way of value in his 13/2 price remains to be seen. He has been guilty of passing up some good positions in the last couple of weeks which might suggest that after a bit of a break he hasn’t quite got rid of all the rust just yet. I wouldn’t give him no chance here but at this price if he wins then so be it. He’s too short for me, albeit understandably so.
Justin Thomas comes in as the second favourite and given that he has already won in 2020 it might be a surprise that he doesn’t head the betting. He is 9/1 to win the tournament this week which feels better value than Rahm, although just how much value there is overall again remains to be seen. I’ve a feeling Thomas might really target the majors this year so if he does aim to peak for Augusta, this might just come too soon. He certainly has the temperament to win here though but he’s a shade short for me.
Webb Simpson is a 14/1 poke to land a desert title but he doesn’t win nearly enough to tempt me in at this sort of price I have to say. I get that he’s solid from tee to green and much improved around the greens but he isn’t the longest in the world which could be seen as a negative and really and truly at this price you would need to think there is a better than good chance he wins if you are going to bank any real cash. I don’t think that is the case so I’ll swerve him.
Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler both have wonderful records around here and they can both be taken at 16/1 to win this tournament. Fowler is the defending champion which is always a negative for me and in truth he doesn’t win as often as he should do either so I’ll pass him over easily enough. Given his record here, Matsuyama is harder to overlook but again he doesn’t win in this part of the world as much as he should so I’ll pass him by as well. It is 18/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
Collin Morikawa has been threatening tournament wins all year so far but he has managed to find whatever trouble there has been off the tee at the wrong moments to hamper his progress but he’ll do well to run into those sorts of issues here so I expect him to run very well with the class of iron play and everything else that he has at his disposal. At one stage last week he was tracking nicely at Torrey Pines before the trouble off the tee hit but if you get into contention there you are playing well and as long as those Sunday struggles haven’t left a negative mark, the youngster should enjoy himself here and looks very attractive at 33/1.
Branden Grace was second here on debut last year and he looks in much better form right now after a decent spin in South Africa before Christmas and then a win in his homeland earlier this month. He spoke in one of those on course interviews with how happy he is with his game that week and we should take notice of that. Grace is a class act when he is fit and firing and you often find a year or two in the doldrums brings out the best in class acts. Grace had everything in good order in South Africa and this track suits him nicely so he’s my other main bet this week.
Outsiders
I’m convinced Chez Reavie will win around here one day and I’m determined to be on him if and when he does. I’ve taken him for the last two years here and he has been second and fourth so he has certainly been knocking at the door. There is an argument that he isn’t in the sort of touch at the minute that he was going in those years but we saw with Andrew Landry at the start of the West Coast swing that comfort in surroundings can be a big thing. Reavie has the perfect tee to green game for here so if the putts start to drop he should run well again and potentially finally get over the line.
Brendan Steele is another player who plays this course well and there is a title in him soon too. He probably should have won the Sony Open earlier in the year but even though he didn’t there were positives to take out of that display. He hit the ball very well there in the main and it is usually this time of year when we see him at his best. Steele has four top six finishes here in the last eight years and two other top 20s so he gets on well with the course, as you would expect for someone who drives it like he does, and with that record he has to be overpriced for glory this week.
Tips
Back C.Morikawa to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back B.Grace to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back C.Reavie to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Steele to win Waste Management Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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