The two semi-finals at the BNP Paribas Open take place on Saturday evening when the four remaining men look to book their spot in the final of the ATP Indian Wells competition and close in on the latest Masters 1000 title.
This has been a week of upsets, so much so that none of the semi-finalists are in the top 25 in the world rankings so there is a huge opportunity for all four men over the next couple of days, which is likely to ensure some competitive action.
Grigor Dimitrov vs Cameron Norrie
The opening semi-final sees the one man left in the draw to have won a Masters 1000 title in the past in Grigor Dimitrov taking on the new British number one Cameron Norrie who has already won five semi-finals this year and will be aiming for a place in his first final at this level.
These two men have come through the draw very impressively. Dimitrov has taken care of the US Open champion Daniil Medvedev and the winner of the Miami Open in Hubert Hurkacz in the last two rounds whereas Cam Norrie has the scalps of Roberto Bautista Agut and Diego Schwartzman on his CV this week so both are entitled to feel very good about their chances of making it through this match. Had this match been on Friday then I’d have been all over Norrie because Dimitrov has been involved in two epics in the previous two rounds but the day off will have given him the chance to recover sufficiently and now I expect a real battle here. Both men are hitting the ball well. I would just edge towards Norrie here. He is having a brilliant year and he beat Dimitrov in their only meeting earlier in the year, but given the size of the match and the prize for winning I think over 22.5 games might be the way to go instead. Neither man is going to give this one up without a fight and when they met in similar conditions in Miami earlier in the year Norrie won 75 75. Dimitrov is playing better now though which should guarantee we go beyond 22.5 games in a match where a third set looks highly likely.
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Taylor Fritz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
The second semi-final sees two men who are looking for a place in their maiden Masters 1000 final meeting when the home favourite Taylor Fritz takes on the Georgian number one Nikoloz Basilashvili in a clash which is going to seriously enhance the career of the winner.
Both these men go into this semi-final off the back of a giant killing win in their quarter final. Basilashvili outlasted Stefanos Tsitsipas before Fritz came from a set down and saved match points to take out the Olympic champion Alexander Zverev. That means both will come into this match feeling really good about themselves but the big questions are who will recover the best for this contest and who will settle the quickest because both are entitled to feel a little nervous ahead of such an important match. My gut feeling is Basilashvili might play the freer of the two and come out on top but we’ll only know that once the match has started so I’m happy to leave this one alone.
Tips
Back G.Dimitrov vs C.Norrie – Over 22.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with Coral
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