The PGA Tour heads back to the Californian coast again this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am although with Covid-19 still raging through America there is no amateur part of the tournament this week so we just have the professional event.
Nick Taylor came out on top in the grind last year and he’ll be hoping to make a successful defence of his crown but with this being the only tournament across the main tours this week there is a decent field looking to deny him.
Recent Winners
2020 – Nick Taylor
2019 – Phil Mickelson
2018 – Ted Potter Jr
2017 – Jordan Spieth
2016 – Vaughn Taylor
2015 – Brandt Snedeker
2014 – Jimmy Walker
2013 – Brandt Snedeker
2012 – Phil Mickelson
2011 – D.A Points
The Courses
With the change in the format we have lost a course on the rotation and are playing with the two courses – Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill – as opposed to the usual three. Both the courses are par 72s and neither of them go beyond 7,051 yards so even though there are no amateurs around this week and the pins and setup will be slightly tougher as a result, it would be foolish to expect anything but a low scoring contest.
This isn’t a week where pounding the life out of the ball is required but it does no harm if you can do that because we are looking for a winning total around 20 under par. The big factors are accuracy with the irons and a hot putter. You won’t be winning around these tracks if you don’t hole a serious amount of putts. Keep players suited by the wind in mind given that we are on the coast for half the event.
The Field
Dustin Johnson was due to head up the field this week but he pulled out at the beginning of it after his exertions in Saudi Arabia last week. Despite his absence we are still left with a pretty decent field where PGA Tour regulars such as Patrick Cantlay, Kevin Streelman and Rickie Fowler are in it. The European Tour challenge is spearheaded by the recent Dubai Desert Classic winner Paul Casey with Francesco Molinari looking for a big week on the Californian links.
There are plenty of former champions in the field looking to regain what is always a popular title with Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker among them. Other notables to keep an eye on over the course of the four days include Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace, Will Zalatoris, Brendan Steele and Stewart Cink. It is fair to say the field is competitive even if the star attractions are saving themselves for next week.
Market Leaders
With the withdrawal of Dustin Johnson it is Patrick Cantlay who is left as the 15/2 favourite to win the tournament. He was the runner up in The American Express, the other tournament with two courses in its rotation that lost the amateur tag this year, a few weeks ago and was just outside the top 10 here last year. He only has one other top 10 here though which would be a concern although the amateur element of the event might account for that. He is probably a worthy favourite but doesn’t offer much in the way of value in my eyes.
Daniel Berger is a 14/1 second favourite to win the tournament. He has teed it up in this tournament on two previous occasions and made the top 10 both times so he appears a worthy second favourite. He missed the cut in Phoenix last week which saw a pretty decent run of form come to an end so it will be interesting to see how he responds to that. Berger definitely has the quality to land a real blow here but his price might just be on the tight side.
Paul Casey is the third favourite to win this crown at 16/1. He’ll be full of confidence after his win in Dubai recently but this will be his third week of action in a row and a trek across from Saudi Arabia to compete here can’t possibly be ideal. I wouldn’t be surprised if the tank is a little empty for him this week. He does have a couple of top 10s here though so if there is enough gas left in him there is no reason why he won’t get on with the courses but there is too much doubt for my liking.
Will Zalatoris is the only other player who is less than 20/1 in the field. You can get him at 18/1 this week. He is seen as a winner in waiting on the PGA Tour but until they actually win I’m always a little reluctant to get involved, particularly at these prices. He went well last week without actually making an impression at the deep end but is clearly someone who is improving and could go well. He isn’t for me at these prices though.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week, the first of which is a player who I want on my side over the next few weeks as we begin to finish on the west coast and head back into Florida and that is Francesco Molinari. This is actually his debut in this event but a man who has won an Open at Carnoustie shouldn’t have any problems at Pebble Beach if the forecasted winds do arrive. Molinari will only ever contend on the PGA Tour at certain events where you don’t have to pound the life out of the ball to get any joy. This is one such place and it is hugely encouraging that off the back of a lengthy absence after the pandemic that he has returned which a couple of very creditable efforts. That shows us he didn’t lose any of his class during his absence, during which he moved his family to America, another sign that he’s serious on this side of the pond. While putting is important this week, pinpoint accuracy from tee to green can get the job done and few do it better than him in that regard. He’s my first main bet.
The second main bet is a man who has won more money in this tournament than anyone else in Phil Mickelson. He has only been out of the top three once in this event in the last five years and sometimes you can just ignore a player and his form and focus on what he does at an event. I think this is one of those occasions. These two tracks clearly bring the best out of Mickelson and suit him much better than Torrey Pines or Phoenix which has been the diet of the last two weeks. That he made the cut there can be no bad thing in terms of how he is striking the ball. We know if the wind gets up Mickelson can still deliver the goods so at 40/1 he’s my second main bet.
Outsiders
I’ll play a couple of outsiders too with the first of those a man who I took a few weeks back and might have jumped on his train a little too soon in Andrew Putnam. His effort in Phoenix last week was much improved as I saw it coming so I wasn’t too surprised. He should in theory continue to improve this week too. Last week in Phoenix nobody was better into the greens than him and that is very encouraging because he is one of the better putters in the game when he is on song. His record here is mixed but despite that he seems to be hitting the ball well enough to be chanced here.
Chesson Hadley has no real form to speak of going into this tournament but he has a couple of top 10s in this event in the last and he was in the top 10 in the US Open here a couple of years ago so he seems to know the ingredients for success around here. Usually only two rounds at Pebble Beach would be a negative for someone who plays this course so well but there is a third round on it this time around which might just see him right. Hadley has a good all-round game and with no scrutiny in the long game this week I think it could well be worth paying to see just how deep a run Hadley can put together here.
Tips
Back F.Molinari to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back P.Mickelson to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back A.Putnam to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Hadley to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
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