The women’s Australian Open draw is always one of the toughest outright puzzles to solve and that appears to be no different when the slightly delayed tournament gets underway in Melbourne on Monday.
Sofia Kenin overcame the odds to land her maiden Grand Slam title here just over a year ago and she will be looking to retain the title but 14 of the leading 15 in the world are here looking to end her reign as the champion.
Recent Winners
2020 – Sofia Kenin
2019 – Naomi Osaka
2018 – Caroline Wozniacki
2017 – Serena Williams
2016 – Angelique Kerber
2015 – Serena Williams
2014 – Li Na
2013 – Viktoria Azarenka
2012 – Viktoria Azarenka
2011 – Kim Clijsters
The Format
As with the men’s draw, the tournament bracket has already been pre-drawn and everyone in their places to prepare for the event. From the first round until the last ball is hit in this tournament each match will be the best-of-three sets but unlike in previous years should the final set reach 6-6 a champion’s tiebreak will be played with the match winner being the first to 10pts with at least a two point advantage.
Top Quarter
We didn’t get to see the home star Ash Barty after lockdown last year but she retained the number one position in the world and will be the main seed in the top quarter as she goes about looking to provide the home crowd with a winner. There are seven other seeds in her quarter and they are Ekaterina Alexandrova, Anett Kontaveit, Petra Martic, Belinda Bencic, Elise Mertens, Karolina Muchova and Karolina Pliskova.
There are plenty of talented campaigners who aren’t seeds who are in this draw with one of them being a former semi-finalist in the form of Dani Collins. French Open winner of the past Jelena Ostapenko is also in this part of the draw as are Barbora Strycova and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Shelby Rogers, Heather Watson, Daria Gavrilova and Aliaksandra Sasnovich are all players who will feel there is a deep run in them.
Second Quarter
This is where the defending champion Sofia Kenin is housed. She will have quite a competitive part of the draw to come through if she is going to have a shot at retaining the title. The other seeds in her section are Donna Vekic, Jennifer Brady, jo Konta, twice former champion Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sakkari, Yulia Putintseva and Elina Svitolina so there are a lot of players who will fancy their chances of going well among those.
The same can be said for a few of those who are not seeded in this quarter as well with Coco Gauff getting the latest chance to win a first Grand Slam title here. Former US Open champion Sloane Stephens is also in this part of the draw. Kiko Mladenovic, home star Sam Stosur, Jessica Pegula, Madison Brengle, French Open semi-finalist Nadia Podoroska and Anastasija Sevastova are other players who might go well.
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Third Quarter
This is the absolutely loaded part of the draw where the former champion Naomi Osaka is the leading light. The US Open champion is the top seed but there are plenty of players with a good record here or in Grand Slams elsewhere who will fancy their chances. They include the former winner here in Angelique Kerber, beaten finalist here last year in Garbine Muguruza and finalist in this event two years ago in Petra Kvitova. The other seeds in this section are the former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu, Qiang Wang, Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur.
There are plenty of competent players in the unseeded parts of the draw as well with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova certainly one of them while Caroline Garcia would go down as another. Elsewhere we have the likes of Andrea Petkovic, Sorana Cirstea, Sara Errani, Venus Williams and Tsvetana Pironkova who has made a big name for herself since she came back onto the tour. There is plenty to keep us entertained in this quarter.
Bottom Quarter
The current Wimbledon champion Simona Halep is the main seed in the bottom quarter of the draw. Just because she is the number two seed does not mean she has been given an easy ride of it though with Aryna Sabalenka a more than competent second highest seed in the section. There is no doubting that all eyes will be on Serena Williams in this part of the draw though with the other seeds in this quarter being Shuai Zhang, Alison Riske, French Open champion Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Veronika Kudermetova.
As ever there are plenty of good quality players who aren’t seeded who have been drawn in this part of the draw. Camila Giorgi would be considered one of those while the veteran Vera Zvonereva showed last year she can still compete to a decent level. Laura Siegemund, Irina Begu, Timea Babos and Alize Cornet are some of the others who can go well for a while in this draw while Daria Kasatkina was much higher up the rankings in the past.
Betting
This is always a hard puzzle to solve and the way the draw has fallen there isn’t really an area of the draw which looks like it is open enough to attack or which could open up significantly. That puts me off backing anyone for their quarters because they all look like tournaments in themselves. I have picked out two for the outright market though with former winner Victoria Azarenka the main bet. We saw in New York last year what she can do and we know she can handle these conditions in Australia having won this tournament twice. Azarenka is still top class and assuming her withdrawal on Saturday was purely down to the change in schedule as I suspect it was then I expect her to go very deep here.
I’m not sure what difference winning the Grampians Trophy will have on Anett Kontaveit but at least it showed that the Estonian is in decent enough form. She is beginning to come into her own in terms of form at this level and was a quarter finalist here last year before she ran into a mean Simona Halep and also made the last 16 of the US Open where eventual champion Naomi Osaka got the better of her. Kontaveit saw off Maria Sakkari to win that title on Sunday so she is clearly hitting the ball well and with so many players in this draw being underdone the fact we can trust the fitness of the Estonian is very much a positive. In a quarter which might open up 100/1 looks a little big.
Tips
Back V.Azarenka to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Bet365 (1/2 1-2)
Back A.Kontaveit to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
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