The penultimate tournament of the PGA Tour season sees us head to new territory up in Baltimore this week, for the BMW Championship as the race to crown the latest FedExCup champion begins to intensify from here on in. We are now down to 70 players but only the top 30 in the rankings will progress to Atlanta next week.
Jon Rahm won this tournament last year when it was held behind closed doors at Olympia Fields and he will bid to defend the title against the other 68 leading players of the season on a different track to the one in which he won on.
Recent Winners
2020 – Jon Rahm
2019 – Justin Thomas
2018 – Keegan Bradley
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Zach Johnson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Justin Rose
The Course
We are at the Caves Valley Golf Club this week. This track hosts the PGA Tour for the first time in its history so we will need to get to know the course over the four days. The one thing we do already know is that it is a bit of a brute. It is a par 72 that measures 7,542 yards and is said to be quite soft so players will need to have eaten their Weetabix to get around here. The course is said to have a Muirfield Village come Quail Hollow flavour to it so the one thing we can take from that is that a sharp tee to green game is required.
I think it is fair to say this is going to be a week for the better drivers on the tour, those who mix length with accuracy and who can go into these smaller greens with the shorter irons in their hands. The front nine here is said to be treelined while the back nine is a little more open and expansive. The rough isn’t meant to be too penal but the greens are well guarded so approach play might be the determining factor here. I’m still not interested in anyone who doesn’t give it a good smack off the tee though.
The Field
70 runners have qualified for this tournament but the field is down to 69 on the eve of the event because Patrick Reed will not take his place in the lineup due to his bout of pneumonia. The new FedExCup number one ranked player Tony Finau is here though and he’ll be looking to hold off some star names hunting him down not least Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith and Jordan Spieth among others.
As ever with the format of these play-off events, there are many players who can make significant ground and get themselves a good spot on the leaderboard for Atlanta next week. They include Patrick Cantlay, Abraham Ancer, Bryson DeChambeau and Louis Oosthuizen among one or two others. Those who are outside the top 30 who need big weeks in order to be in Atlanta next week include Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood, Kevin Kisner and Shane Lowry.
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm was the co-leader after 54 holes last week but couldn’t press home the advantage on the final day. The defending champion is an emphatic 13/2 favourite to win this week though despite that. I just wonder if the among of big time golf he has played recently has caught up with him and if that is the case I probably wouldn’t want to be on him at this price, although he certainly ticks the length and long game boxes. This field is stronger than wading in on a 13/2 poke.
The Olympic champion Xander Schauffele is the 18/1 second favourite to take down the biggest PGA Tour title of his career this week. You can never rule out the consistent Schauffele but I would be surprised if this course suits the strengths of his game. He is a classy operator with the irons though and that might be significant. He doesn’t get my juices going at 18/1 though I have to admit so I’ll pass him over.
Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth come next in the betting at 20/1. Thomas went under the radar for his first top five finish since winning The Players Championship back in March last week and if that has flicked a switch in his form he is perfectly capable of taking this thing down. Spieth had a final round mare last week and might lack the length to be a genuine contender this week, although his iron play in might keep him competitive.
Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson both start the week as 22/1 shots to win this title and are the only two remaining players under 25/1 in the betting. Morikawa might need to overcome a length disadvantage but he can more than make up for that with his precise iron play. A recent back injury isn’t ideal though. Johnson has played here before in the US Palmer Cup but that was well over a decade or so ago. He doesn’t look like he quite has his best with him at the minute and he’ll need that to win here you would think.
Main Bets
Justin Thomas finally came back to form last week when he finished in the top five of The Northern Trust and the credentials of this golf course should bring out the best of his game here. The key thing last week was that Thomas ranked fourth in the field for putting which was the department of his game which was letting him down in recent times. He has been hitting a lot of good quality iron shots but the putter just wasn’t cooperating. Thomas is very much a confidence player and a lot of that confidence comes from the short stick and when that is working the rest of his game tends to follow. I think that makes him a leading runner this week.
Rory McIlroy has a love affair with one of Tom Fazio’s best creations in Quail Hollow so the quirks of this course might just suit the Northern Irishman too. This is a big boy golf course and McIlroy certainly doesn’t lack in that department so the 25/1 on him winning could be a little big here. McIlroy’s approach game last week was terrible but I don’t think Liberty National necessarily suits him whereas the longer and more expansive grounds of this place should suit him a lot better. McIlroy was one of the best in the field on approach in the WGC a few weeks ago. He went fairly well there and at the Olympics so he is in decent form despite a poor showing on a course that doesn’t suit him. I think he’s another to be with this week.
Outsiders
This is a golf course for the big drivers so I’m going to take two long ones to deliver the goods over the course of the week as well. Jason Kokrak has won twice this season and his length off the tee can eliminate much of the field around him. Generally he fires strongly into the greens so if his putter is on song he delivers the goods. That putter doesn’t always cooperate with Kokrak but nobody has a taste of these greens. It might be that missing the cut last week was a blessing in disguise for the American as he could get up to Baltimore earlier than those who had to hang around until late on Monday in New York. I think he has a fair chance on this course.
There aren’t many drivers in the world that are longer than Cameron Champ so that has to count for something this week. Pound for pound he is the longest driver in the field and having won the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago we know he’s in decent form. He was in the top five on approach last week so when you combine his length and quality off the tee with the form he showed with the irons last week and add into it that he’ll be using shorter irons than most into these greens he is another who is worth a chance. He feels a big price on this golf course.
Tips
Back J.Thomas to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back R.McIlroy to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back J.Kokrak to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back C.Champ to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Coral (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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