The second leg of the Desert Swing on the European Tour this year is the Dubai Desert Classic. The event takes place this week beginning on Thursday and gives many of the best Europe has to offer the chance to pick up a coveted title.
Lucas Herbert did exactly that last year when he walked off with the title. He is back looking to make a successful defence of his crown but with a slight shift in the calendar for the tournament a stronger field opposes him here.
Recent Winners
2020 – Lucas Herbert
2019 – Bryson DeChambeau
2018 – Haotong Li
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Stephen Gallacher
2013 – Stephen Gallacher
2012 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
The Course
It is once again the Majlis Course at the Emirates Golf Club which is the host course this week. In the main this course has held the tournament every year so the track is well known to the regulars at this event. The course is a par 72 which measures 7,353 yards although in the dry and humid air the course doesn’t play anywhere near that long. Often one defence of this course is the wind although the forecast doesn’t look too bad in that regard this week.
The rough was grown a little more here last year and it remains to be seen if that was an anomaly or the way this tournament is going to go now. Either way it is probably better to be longer off the tee than accurate but largely this will become a test of the short game whether around the greens or on them. The winning score was higher last year because the final day saw heavy winds more than anything else. -11 led after 54 holes which is only a shot or two higher than the norm.
The Field
We have the USPGA champion Collin Morikawa heading the field this week in terms of the world rankings. The fact he has skipped a tournament in California for this means he is either being well paid or he is looking to make a serious dart at the Race to Dubai this year. I suspect it is the former as if it is the latter he would have been over last week. The other huge notable in the field is the newly crowned Abu Dhabi champion Tyrrell Hatton.
The defending champion Lucas Herbert is here looking to keep hold of his title with former champions including Sergio Garcia, Danny Willett and Rafa Cabrera Bello all looking to regain their crowns. Top level European stars such as Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matt Wallace and the European number one Lee Westwood all have tee times this week, as do Paul Casey, Andy Sullivan and Robert MacIntyre among others.
Market Leaders
The Abu Dhabi winner Tyrrell Hatton is the 7/1 favourite to follow up with another win here. That seems fair enough on the face of it when you consider he won in a field which contained Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas last week and neither tee it up here. You always have to wonder how much a player has left after a win though, especially a big Rolex Series event win. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Hatton goes in again but there are enough doubts to consider 7/1 a little short.
Tommy Fleetwood is an 11/1 shot to win the tournament this week. He is going to need to get his putting sorted out if that is going to happen you would fancy. I say that because he missed short putt after short putt last week and the field is too strong to be able to do that here. He usually putts well in Abu Dhabi too so the short stick is a big concern. I never rule Fleetwood out but I can’t back him until he convinces me on the greens again.
Collin Morikawa will tee it up a point bigger than Fleetwood at 12/1. As I hinted above, is he here for anything other than a wedge of cash? If he isn’t you have to wonder where his motivation will be. He came over for the DP World Tour Championship and needed 36 holes to get up to speed in his debut then and even if he is up for the challenge this week you would have to wonder if the same will happen here. He isn’t for me despite going well in Hawaii to start the year stateside.
Dubai specialist Matthew Fitzpatrick is a 16/1 shot to win here. I call him the Dubai specialist but that tends to be at the season ending event rather than this one. He has only cracked the top 15 once in six attempts at this course so there is something about it which doesn’t agree with him. His missed cut last week doesn’t inspire confidence either so I think I’ll keep my powder dry where Fitzy is concerned for a while. It is 22/1 bar this quartet.
Main Bets
I’ll take two main bets this week and the first of them will be absolutely no surprise in that it is on Victor Perez, a player regular readers will know I’m convinced is going to be a big deal on the European Tour and I’m expecting a big year from him in 2021. I think this could be his week too because he has some decent desert form without putting four rounds together. It is here last year which catches my eye though as he sat second after three rounds before the winds of the final day caught him out. That might be a negative but quality wind players like Eddie Pepperell, Tommy Fleetwood and Henrik Stenson all had mares in it. The calmer first three days had the Frenchman in second place which is important. In many ways it was similar last week. He scored well in the more benign conditions and struggled when the breeze got up, which is a surprise given that he’s won a Dunhill Links and has JP on the bag who will have grown up golfing in windy conditions. Ultimately we don’t need to worry too much about the wind this week so this pure driver of a golf ball and crisp iron player can get back in the mix and this time convert.
Another player who can use those facets of his game to get in the mix is the former champion Rafa Cabrera Bello. The tendency when you assess players and their chances in these tournaments is to take their recent form into account but I’m not sure that works with the Spaniard. I say that because he’s had a couple of tough campaigns on the PGA Tour and his confidence could well have been low. He has lost his privileges on the PGA Tour now so this is a big run for him on the European Tour and he’ll be eager to get back to winning ways to get up the rankings and get back stateside that way. With that in mind it was encouraging that he produced a top five finish last week which would have been even better if he hadn’t forgotten to take his long game to the course with him for the third round. RCB won this tournament in 2012 and had a three year spin from 2016-2018 where he went T2-T11-T6 so he knows this track well and looks to be returning to form if last week is anything to go by. I expect him to go close here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders this week. There is a large correlation between this course and the ones used for the Portugal Masters and the Doha Golf Club which used to be the track for the Qatar Masters so with that in mind George Coetzee is high up on the shortlist this week. He has won at the Portugal track with plenty of other top 10s and he has a couple of runners up and plenty more top 10s at Doha as well. Coetzee warmed up for this tournament with a decent finish in Abu Dhabi last week and has a couple of top 10s here in the past. His approach play was the weakest part of the bag last week but he didn’t lose ground to the field in any of the strokes gained categories. With that run behind him I’m expecting a decent showing here.
Chris Paisley is another who has decent Portugal form under his belt having recorded a couple of top fives there and he has a T13 at Doha too which would have been a lot better but for a poor first round. I’m not surprised by that because he has a decent short game which often propels him to go well at those tracks. We saw the evidence of that again last week in Abu Dhabi where he finished in a tie for seventh, getting better as the week went on. I’m hoping that poor first round was rust rather than a trend, although that first round was delayed which might have had something to do with it. Paisley actually lost strokes off the tee last week but that isn’t as important around here. If he can drive it slightly better there is no reason why he won’t be right there here.
Finally I can’t resist a punt on the former winner Stephen Gallacher who probably wishes he could bottle up this course given his record on it. Either side of his two wins here in 2013 and 2014, Gallacher was second and third in this event and he has had a top 10 since then too. Before he lost all confidence in his game the Scot had an excellent record in Portugal as well so course profile wise we know he is well suited here. He was in the top five for strokes gained around the greens last week which was a relevant factor here last year and if it is again that will do Gallacher’s chances no harm at all. We see out of form golfers land somewhere they’ve gone well at in the past and find their best stuff no end of times and after an encouraging first 36 holes last week and a record on this course that stands up to anything I’ll pay to see how he goes here.
Tips
Back V.Perez to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back G.Coetzee to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back R.Cabrera Bello to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Paisley to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back S.Gallacher to win Dubai Desert Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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