2020 was a brilliant year of racing for us on the site with big winners from all over the world at the biggest meetings as well as the lower key ones and with Cheltenham just over a month away we are ready to begin our 2021 action!
The jumps stuff can wait until the Supreme Novice Hurdle challengers trudge up Cleeve Hill because before then we have the Dubai World Cup Carnival to get stuck into, beginning with week four which comes along on Thursday. We’re attacking one race on the card.
3.05 Meydan: Emirates SkyCargo Handicap
Preview
The 4th week of the Dubai World Cup Carnival kicks off with a competitive looking handicap over a mile and a half where, yet again, Godolphin holds an incredibly strong hand. It’s worth noting their record in the first 3 weeks of the Carnival in turf handicaps where they’ve had at least 3 runners in the field. There have been 5 such races:
14 runners, 5 from Godolphin who saddled the 1st & 2nd.
15 runners, 8 from Godolphin who saddled the first 6 home.
16 runners, 4 from Godolphin who saddled the 1st & 2nd.
10 runners, 7 from Godolphin who saddled the first 5 home.
14 runners, 3 from Godolphin who saddled the first 2 home.
Favourites
Simply put, we just cannot ignore the boys in blue here, given they have 8 of the 16 runners here including 6 of the first 7 in the betting. A good pointer for this will be the 10 furlong Listed handicap won by Al Hayati 2 weeks ago, where today’s favourite & 2nd favourite, Star Safari & Brilliant Light, finished 3rd & 4th. Both of them raced mid-rear in a strongly run race so it could be argued they had the run of the race with preference for the latter who should be better suited by the longer trip.
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Betting
The preference from that race, however, is High End who goes off a generous looking price by comparison. The top weight went off at 100/30 second favourite there & he had excuses in finishing 8th. He was given a very positive ride, upside the leader on the outside before hitting the front off the home turn. On his first run for 4 months, he paid for going with the strong pace & eventually faded, not given a hard time. Add to that he was a little upset at the start, it’s easy to ignore that run. Prior to that, he was 2nd in a Listed heat in the UK behind Anna Nerium so brings decent enough form to the table. Ridden with more restraint, he looks overpriced especially as he’s likely to be better suited than most to the extra 2 furlongs.
The other that cannot be left out of calculations is Global Storm, a lightly raced 4 year old having his first run since July. Last year, he won on reappearance (in fact he’s 2 from 2 after a break of 7+ weeks) before finishing 3rd at Royal Ascot when staying on well over 10 furlongs in rain softened ground. He disappointed when 6th on his last start at Newmarket but was edged out in a blanket finish for 3rd & again, had excuses as he raced in the middle of the track (when the rail was favoured) & didn’t get a completely clear run. His hold up style in a race with pace will suit and provided he’s fit & has improved from 3 year old to 4, he should go very close on this better ground for an in-form Charlie Appleby yard.
Of the other Godolphin runners, Al Dabaran & Saqqara King are unproven in big field handicaps & whilst away from the boys in blue, Away He Goes holds the most solid chance.
Tips
Back Global Storm (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
PLACED AT 20/1 – Back High End (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back them here:
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